Castle Fundraising Fails to Meet Expectations
“Our fundraising is pretty steady — it goes along at about a million dollars a quarter, and I expect that to continue in the next few quarters,” Castle told CQ Politics.
Well, I guess $826,000 is “about a million dollars a quarter.” But if there is one thing you don’t do in politics is throw precise words around when you really want some wiggle spin ready room. You don’t throw out the term “million dollars” if you do not expect to raise more than a million dollars. Like in Star Trek, when Engineer Montgomery Scott always multiplied his repair time estimates by a factor of four, so that he would be a miracle worker in Captain Kirk’s eyes. In political fundraising, you want to lowball your expectations so it is a story of success when your numbers are released. Here, you can argue that Castle failed to meet his own fundraising expectations. And if there is one thing in politics you don’t do is fail to meet your own self imposed expectations.
Now, $826,000 is an impressive figure by itself, out of context. But when you consider that Castle had over an extra month to fundraise this quarter over Coons (since Coons did not file his candidacy papers until February 2 or thereabouts), he only managed to outraise Coons by $191,000 in that extra time. Coons raised $635,000 from February 2 until March 30. If you average that haul over three months, as if Coons had filed his FEC papers on January 1, he would have raised $952,500, far closer to that “about a million dollars” benchmark, and more than Castle. Imagine those headlines.
If only Beau Biden had not waited from Thanksgiving until late January to announce his decision not to run.
Still, in that context, this is a very competitive money race.
I’m not sure how much this inside baseball stuff matters. Coons has to excite passion and Castle merely has to incite apathy. So far I see Castle doing his job.
In a normal “good times” election, like in 2002 or 1998, I would agree with you. Castle, the de facto incumbent in this race, serving 18 years on the Banking Committee, and sponsoring and voting for the very legislation that allowed the financial collapse to happen, has to incite passion for his candidacy too. This will not be an election where apathy rules the day. Whomever excites their respective bases will win.
I think it may be indicative of some decreased attention by Republicans on this race. They make think it’s in the bag for them and probably there’s not that much enthusiasm for Castle among the Teapublican party.
Great headline in CQ:
Castle, Coons Collect Copious Cash
Fund-raising does matter, Jason. It’s the first stage of the plebiscite. That Chris’ fund-raising exploded out of the gate is, of course, significant.
DD’s points are well-taken. In addition, it bears mention that (1) Castle raised less in the first quarter of 2010 than in the fourth quarter of 2009; and (2) less than half of Castle’s 2009 contributions were from human beings, the rest being from PAC’s.
PS to Jason – Coons electrified the Brandywine Hundred Democrats a week ago Thursday. At the end of his speech, the committee folk were lighting their Zippos, looking for an encore.
Jason really needs to see Coons. I saw him Saturday. I think a lot of his apathy will fade.
I think Coons is really starting to rev up now. I think we’ll see him a lot more.
Doesn’t Castle now have ~3X the amount that Coons has? That is the context that you have to look at.
Castle has quite a head start, he has $2.3MM COH.
Head starts can work for, or against you. In 2008 (actually in 2007) Hillary had quite the head start against Obama. Similarly, Hillary had already achieved broad name recognition, which meant that her polling numbers started at their peak, while Obama’s steadily increased. Coons is fairly well-known in NCCo, but as he is more visible in kent/Sussex, his numbers there will rise, while Castle’s can only fade.
If Beau had announced Dec. 1st it would not have affected this race, to believe otherwise is to ignore reality. Look historically at candidate fundraising. The first quarter is usually the highest. Not always, obviously a candidate can benefit from the web, and the mistakes of his/her opponent (think Jim Webb after George Allen’s youtube moment, & Michelle Bachman’s opponents), or a candidate can pick up steam as a race goes on and perception that a candidate has a chance increases, and as perception increases, people standing on the sidelines start to donate. I know very few people (we are talking loyal registered Democrats) who think Coons has a chance to win the Senate race. These include Coons supporters, and those who will vote for him for Senate, but don’t like him one bit. The 1st quarter fund raising for a candidate who has held office, and is now seeking higher office is almost always their highest quarter. It is the quarter where all past donors are hit up. The 2nd and subsequent quarters are harder, because the candidate has already tapped out his well of prior supporters, and now has to try and get money from people who have never given to him before. If Coons were in the race in Dec it is unlikely his intake from 1/1/10-3/31/10 would have been significantly different, than his reported intake. Blaming Beau on waiting to announce his decision not to run is misguided.
Castle’s intake is not as high as I would have expected, but his 4th quarter in 2009 was a lot higher than expected. His 2009 4th quarter and 1st quarter of 2010 due average a million a quarter. People shouldn’t get too excited about the drop in donations to Castle after Beau dropped out. Seriously anyone who thinks that Coons has a better chance at beating Castle than Beau had is simply not being realistic. The drop in Castle’s donation in the 1st quarter from the 1 million plus in the 4th quarter when the political world believed he was going against Beau most likely reflect the view that Castle no longer needs a huge war chest. Instead of seeing this as evidence if an inability to raise money, or any strength of Coons, the more likely cause is Castle is no longer seen as being in a real race. Nate Silver has Coons’ chance at winning at 2%, with the Democratic registration favoring a Democratic candidate in Delaware, 2% reflects the registration advantage and nothing else.
I hope all the people on this post who really believe Coons has a chance are out their raising money for Chris, I for one will sit on the sidelines, like most of my friends, until Chris does something to show me he is in this to win. I’m so sick of excuses for why he isn’t out there. I understand the claim if he’s campaigning too much he opens himself up to criticism that he’s not doing his County Executive job. I don’t buy the excuse, he can’t run for re-election, and if he isn’t prepared to run for real, or if avoiding that criticism is going to prevent him from running full force, then why get in a race where the odds were/are so steep at the out set? And what is his excuse for not having a decent website? What is his excuse for not making web speeches to post on his positions? The bottom line is Chris Coons has a very slight chance to win this, and unless he devotes 100% of his effort to this challenge, and starts to convince people he didn’t just put his name on the ballot, he will get crushed, and the story will be how even Democrats in Biden’s home state have turned against Biden and Obama, that won’t have a grain of truth, but it’ll be the media’s take!
Comment by PBaumbach : “Head starts can work for, or against you. In 2008 (actually in 2007) Hillary had quite the head start against Obama. Similarly, Hillary had already achieved broad name recognition, which meant that her polling numbers started at their peak, while Obama’s steadily increased. Coons is fairly well-known in NCCo, but as he is more visible in kent/Sussex, his numbers there will rise, while Castle’s can only fade.”
Chris Coons is no Obama in about every way imaginable. I was in my home state enough in 2007 to know that Hillary had a cap of support there no matter what she did. Her campaign knew that, but counted on a high turn out of her supporters. Obama worked hard in Iowa (and elsewhere), he had an organization never seen before in Iowa, and he was there 2 to 3 times as often as Hillary.
Ignoring the charm differences between Obama and Coons, if you used your analogy in the Coons Castle race it would still be flawed.
1. Unlike Hillary who had never run nationally, Castle has been running statewide for decades, he has won his races by no less than 55% (and as high as 72%). There is no support for the position that Castle’s numbers are going to decline in this election. Coons has run three times in NCC, where over 60% of the state live. He has strong name recognition in NCC, and in his two races with a general election opponent he received a lower vote total than Castle did in NCC.
2. Obama worked hard personally and had a near flawless political team, neither applies to Coons.
I wish your theory of the Hillary Obama scenario worked here, but it doesn’t.
Mary E and Iowa Dem sound like the folks who said Carper had no chance against Evans or Roth. Paul B is right: Coons has the name-recognition upside and the more active party base.
JM – No outing or attempted outing.
My reference was a droll reference to Ed Mezvinsky, a famous Iowa Dem but undoubtedly not our pen pal above. No outing intended or likely.
It’s not a democracy. It’s an auction.
JM – Sorry, I misunderstood.
one reason why it’s an auction is that voters have short attention spans, rarely put in the time to make a rational decision, and stupid, expensive TV ads are effective.
in a perfect world, voters come to forums, and hear intelligent discussion by candidates. they go to campaign websites to read position papers, they go to groups like the league of women voters, etc, to see candidate position comparisons.
in our world …
Comment by John Manifold: “Mary E and Iowa Dem sound like the folks who said Carper had no chance against Evans or Roth. Paul B is right: Coons has the name-recognition upside and the more active party base.”
I had no clue as to Carper’s chance in 2000 against Roth, as I wasn’t living in Delaware at the time. While I find Carper to be charisma challenged, I really never knew much about Roth (other than the IRA was named after him/his legislation). I don’t know why anyone would have thought a sitting Democratic Governor (Carper) couldn’t beat a sitting GOP US Senator in Delaware during a Presidential election year? Carper and Gore got about the same number of votes, which is what I would have thought would have happened. Had Carper been the sitting NCC County Executive in 2000, as opposed to the sitting Governor I would have given Roth the edge, but I still would have felt the presidential race would benefit the Democratic candidate. Unlike Carper, Coons has never run statewide. I haven’t researched it, but friends have said no former NCC County Executive has ever won statewide. However, I don’t put much stock in that being a factor. If it was a Presidential year I think Coons’ chances were better than they are during an off year election. Unfortunately too many Democrats only vote during Presidential elections!
JM can you really argue with my belief that comparing Coons to Obama is laughable? I agree that Castle has a floor of support, however his lowest vote total for Congress has been 55% of the vote. Hillary’s cap of support in Iowa (and nationally) never reached 50%. Her campaign argued it would increase if she was the nominee, but I doubt that is true. I agree that Coons’ support in Sussex and Kent will increase as he builds name recognition, but name recognition and voter enthusiasm aren’t the same thing. Also Obama’s campaign was top notch, I don’t know who is running Coons’ campaign, but if you were being honest I can’t imagine you would be impressed with them at this point. Not only did Obama have an amazing staff, he personally worked round the clock once he committed to the race. Coons has been virtually invisible, and his website is a joke, his website for re-election to County Executive was far better. Go on the website, there are no issues, just a “Meet Chris” “Volunteer” and “Donate” section. His donation section takes you to Act Blue; it should at least be dedicated only to Chris.
Make no mistake I want to be wrong, but I’m honest, and I think he has only a fraction of a chance to win, and this won’t happen with the effort he is putting forth.
Also, I wouldn’t refer to Ed Mezvinsky as “a famous Iowa Dem”; it is true he was a two term Democratic Congressman from Iowa’s first district. (back when Iowa had 6 Congressional seats) But if his son wasn’t about to marry Chelsea Clinton, or if he had not served 7 years in prison for fraud 98% of Iowa Democrats under 60 wouldn’t know who he was. Mezvinsky lost a very Democratic district to Jim Leach in 1976, and then moved to PA, where he was soon forgotten.
90 percent of Iowa Democrats under 60 wouldn’t know Forest Evashevski from Downtown Freddy Brown.
Ed Mez is only Iowa Dem to have given a speech in prime time, covered by all three networks [and PBS], as House Judiciary Committee began considering impeachment of Richard Nixon, 7/24/74.
I doubt that Tom Harkin had much of a Web site at this point in his challenge of Iowa’s incumbent senator in 1984.
“…and then moved to PA, where he was soon forgotten.”
Not around here. He married Marjorie Marjolies, who also served one term in Congress, as a Democrat from highly Republican Montgomery County, Pa. She lost in 1994 after casting the deciding vote for Clinton’s budget, IIRC.
Marjorie Margolies was a pioneering reporter with TV-10, later NBC.
Had Ed Mez not become the Richard Salpeter of Pennsylvania, she would have joined the 2000 Pennsylvania Senate primary that, without her, yielded the hideous Ron Klink as Santorum’s lame challenger.
Sorry about the misspelling. Marjorie Margolies is her actual name, the one she made for herself in local TV.
“Make no mistake I want to be wrong, but I’m honest, and I think he has only a fraction of a chance to win, and this won’t happen with the effort he is putting forth.”
You don’t have to be from Iowa or dislike Chris Coons to see the truth in this.
There is effort and there is effort. I think Coons’ fundraising shows that he is putting in the kind of effort that some DCCC consultants want to see. The problem is that kind of effort does not build any real grassroots energy.
People I respect say that he is turning that around. I hope so because Castle seems vulnerable.
Coons needs to be out there this week tying Mike Castle to the Republican teabagger thing at the Riverfront. The dutiful local press will put out the vibe that the appearance of Pete du Pont somehow legitimizes the teabaggers. But Pete is no longer the moderate he governed as. It would be ballsy and revelatory for Coons to explain to voters how Pete du Pont and the GOP have gone off the deep end. This week would be the perfect teaching moment to explain it. And that would put Castle in a difficult spot, because he is walking a tightrope with the teabaggers in the first place. The wimpy thing to do would be to let the teabag legitimizing process go forward uncontested.
out there this week tying Mike Castle to the Republican teabagger thing
That would help Castle in the GOP primary
Delaware needs to know that Pete isn’t the same Pete they remember. Champagne Pete* has been freed from the responsibility of governing and is now reverting to his American Liberty League DNA.
*h/t Ralph Moyed.
“That would help Castle in the GOP primary”
So? He’s going to win the primary anyway. The only way to beat him in the general is to move him to the right.
Comment by John Manifold: “90 percent of Iowa Democrats under 60 wouldn’t know Forest Evashevski from Downtown Freddy Brown.
Ed Mez is only Iowa Dem to have given a speech in prime time, covered by all three networks [and PBS], as House Judiciary Committee began considering impeachment of Richard Nixon, 7/24/74.
I doubt that Tom Harkin had much of a Web site at this point in his challenge of Iowa’s incumbent senator in 1984.”
John,
I can assure you that far more Iowans under and over 60 would know who Evy is than would know who Downtown Freddy Brown is. I bleed black and gold, and I had to look up who Downtown Freddy Brown was. Basketball has always taken a back seat to football at UI even during Iowa’s 20 years without a winning football season (after Evy’s retirement to become fulltime AD, and the hiring of Hayden Fry) over 40,000 fans would come watch the Hawkeyes each Saturday, and dream about the glory days under Evy, and believe they would some day return. Even when Lute Olson was winning at Iowa, and our football program was a joke, fans cared about football more. All coaches are compared to Evy, Fry was well regarded, but as the saying goes “he was no Evy”. No doubt many current Iowa students, especially the hordes of students from the Chicago suburbs did not know who Evy was, or what he meant to the University until his death last October, when the players wore “Evy” stickers on their helmets.
Evy’s death received more ink in the Des Moines Register and Cedar Rapids Gazette (and Iowa City Press Citizens, etc) the day after his death (let alone in the days and weeks that followed) than Ed Mezvinsky received after a month of losing re-election to Jim Leach in 1976 through today. His conviction (or plea) on fraud was a one-paragraph story. That is not to discount Mezvinsky’s accomplishments in his four years in Congress, but 1976 was a long time ago, and he is not seen as a political hero among party activist in Iowa. When Democratic candidates go to Iowa to seek the Presidential nomination they don’t mention him, whether it is because they think too many will think “Ed who?”, or they are concerned those who do remember do not hold fond memories, is anyone’s guess. They mention current elected leaders or Dick Clark, John Culver, and most often Harold Hughes. The reason many old timers, who remember him may not hold him in high esteem is because they blame him for losing his seat to a Republican in a year that was good to Democratic candidates nationally, which seat remained in GOP hands (Jim Leach who defeated Ed) for 30 years. Ed divorced his wife soon after arriving in DC, and probably would have lost re-election in 74, but for his impeachment hearing exposure. And then instead of waiting a “respectable time” (based on Iowa standards) to remarry, he married Marjorie Margolies during the run up to the 76 race.
I understand Ed wasn’t forgotten in PA, but in Iowa he was forgotten soon after he left, well maybe not soon, but seriously within a year or two after he lost to Leach I don’t think I heard his name mentioned in any Democratic circles, and I doubt since moving away from Iowa he has remerged as a person of interest.
I can assure you Tom Harkin had no website in 1984, nor did any other candidate, as the web was not in existence. But I can assure you that Harkin has never put anything less than his full effort into any campaign, even campaigns that he knows he’ll win big (like 2008 against a token GOP candidate). I was in college in 84 and Harkin worked hard to get student support (a less than reliable voting bloc), and worked harder to get the support of traditional voters. Of course Roger Jepsen helped Harkin’s effort tremendously. Whether Jepsen could have weathered the storm brought on by the discovery that he had applied for membership at a brothel is debatable, but being dumb enough to put that on his credit card was just too much.
What I don’t understand is blind loyalty, it is one thing, when changing the outcome is too late, but why pretend Coons is on the right track when he clearly isn’t. Can you really defend his effort to date?
This: There is effort and there is effort. I think Coons’ fundraising shows that he is putting in the kind of effort that some DCCC consultants want to see. The problem is that kind of effort does not build any real grassroots energy.
That’s the argument I keep having with people “in the know.” I was at the same BAD meeting as John, and I lol at the “electrifying” remark. Didn’t happen. Party stalwarts liked what he had to say, why not? But he has a long way to go before getting people reaching for their wallets OR their zippos. It was hot as hell in that room, and everyone was pleased to see our candidates, but that was about it. He has a good solid stump speech. What he needs now is to deliver it in every diner and barbeque in the state, and kiss every baby presented.
He definitely has some enthusiastic supporters. If his campaign isn’t totally run by snotty interns from Georgetown, he has a shot.
Sounds like Iowa Dem, for all his linear literal-minded loyalty to small data sets, doesn’t care much for hoops.
Welcome to Delaware, ID, and chill just a bit. If you or I ever worked as hard at our jobs as brother Coons has worked in launching this campaign, we’d be millionaires. I look forward to meeting and working with you.
“If you or I ever worked as hard at our jobs as brother Coons has worked in launching this campaign, we’d be millionaires.”
No, that’s just your friends in the Democratic Party establishment, John. Lots of people work that hard (not me, but still) and aren’t millionaires.
I don’t really give a rip how hard he’s working. He’s worked hard at running New Castle County, too, but that doesn’t mean it has translated into results. Frankly, after seeing the amount of turnover in his administration and the difficulty in getting a response to much of anything from his office, I’m forced to conclude there’s something wrong with the Gore management style, if that’s what he has brought to county government.
Matt says it better:
http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2010/04/10/brooks-let-them-eat-work/
Rather than citing Chris’ hard work, I should have emphasized his uncommon focus in this race. As Peter Guralnick pointed out in his chapter on James Brown, hard work is universal. Focus is strikingly rare.
As for hard work, Harry says it better:
http://harryshearer.com/news/le_show/view/?id=442&type=2&ref=1399
I attended a democratic function last night, where Chris Coons spoke. He was asked a question about his position on the “Surge” in Afghanistan and Coons clearly stated he backed President Obama’s position of send in more troops. He further elaborated that he trusted Obama’s position because Obama had more information than he. The person in the audience pointed out that VP Biden had similar information and arrived at a different position of not supporting the “surge”. Coons after looking like a deer in the highlight for 20 seconds abruptly moved on to the next question.
Does anyone ever understand what the heck John Manifold is talking about?
Here’s a hint … you might sound like less of a douche if you didn’t pretend you were on a first-name basis with national political people.
Anon – Calmes-toi. Click Harry’s link and smile.
Comment by John Manifold: “Sounds like Iowa Dem, for all his linear literal-minded loyalty to small data sets, doesn’t care much for hoops.
Welcome to Delaware, ID, and chill just a bit. If you or I ever worked as hard at our jobs as brother Coons has worked in launching this campaign, we’d be millionaires. I look forward to meeting and working with you.”
I enjoy basketball, but if you’ve even remotely followed Big Ten Basketball (with 11 teams????) you know it’s been a while since my alma mater has given me any reason to watch them. The 2009 football team won more games this year than the BB team! I fondly remember Lute Olson, and his teams, but seriously Iowa is a football school, even when we can’t field a respectable team, football is king. There are few schools that can go 20 years without a winning season and still pull in over 59,000 to each home game during their 20th losing season. And after our first winning season tickets became hard to get and Kinnick started to sell out, and needed to expand.
You’re probably right about my need to chill, however I was raised on stories of Evy, and had the good fortune of meeting him after he retired. In the home I was raised the only Hawkeye closer to a God than Evy is Nile Kinnick. My son who’s a student at Iowa has Kinnick Heisman speech memorized. It is a great speech!
With respect to my being a millionaire if I worked as hard as Coons has launching his campaign, I wish that were true. Look if Coons is working as hard as you say, then I worry he isn’t working smart. I realize most of a candidate’s time is calling donors and begging for money, but Delaware is not a large state. You can get from end to end in less than 2 hours, there is no reason that Coons nights aren’t being spent in every corner of the state. He could dial for dollars on the road. And I don’t mean to harp, however maybe if I complain enough something will change, but seriously his website does not inspire confidence! As far as working together on Coons campaign, I was prepared to work hard on Beau’s campaign, because I believed he had a good chance, and knew he would work hard. I don’t feel the same confidence either in Coons chance, or his personal effort, and until I see that Coons is in this to win, or at least is committed to try and win I’m not going to volunteer my time, or donate my hard earned money. I’ve worked on too many campaigns back in Iowa that were an up hill battle, some like Dave Loebsack (who upset Jim Leach in 2006) were great upsets, others were crushing defeats. I can handle a defeat when the candidate has at least as much skin in the race as I do. But I don’t feel like convincing myself a Coons victory is possible until I see the candidate believes it, and right now I see Coons has some loyal supporters, but I don’t see any real effort by him.
Comment by mary: “I attended a democratic function last night, where Chris Coons spoke. He was asked a question about his position on the “Surge” in Afghanistan and Coons clearly stated he backed President Obama’s position of send in more troops. …The person in the audience pointed out that VP Biden had similar information and arrived at a different position of not supporting the “surge”. Coons after looking like a deer in the highlight for 20 seconds abruptly moved on to the next question.”
Now I’m bummed out. Seriously he didn’t know Biden’s position on Afghanistan, has the man ever watched MSNBC? I would prefer he dodge the question, or side with Obama or Biden’s position, but to clearly have no clue as to VP Biden’s attempt to convince President Obama a surge was ill advised is down right depressing!!! And I assume this was at a friendly audience!
Iowa nearly won the national [men’s] basketball championship in 1980. The Hawkeyes kept pace with eventual champion Louisville in the semifinals at Market Square Arena before Ronnie Lester’s injury.
We Easterners all cheered Dan Gable at Munich.
U of D Rugby won a national championship or something.
I remember Iowa’s 1980 basketball team like it was yesterday, and not 30 years ago! Lute Olson’s teams were always fun to watch. It would have been great if Ronnie hadn’t blown out his knee in the final four, but I’ll never forgot that Georgetown game that got the Hawks in the final 4. Hopefully the new coach can turn things around, he seriously can’t do any worse.
I think the world of Gable as a wrestler and wrestling coach, and he’s always been generous of his time. I ignore his political views. Gable’s to the right of his good buddy Denny Hastert! The only positive thing I can say about him politically is that he has refused the GOP’s efforts to get him to run for office! In addition to his own Olympic gold medal in 72, he won 15 NCAA wrestling championships during his 21 years as head coach at Iowa. Iowa became so spoiled under Gable, that Jimmy Zalesky was fired after 8 years as the head coach, because he only won 3 NCAA championships. It was fun following the NCAA tournament this year, especially because a friend of mine’s son, Matt McDonough (a red shirt freshman), won his first NCAA championship. It was also great seeing Cornell come in second, albeit it a very distant second, ahead of traditional wrestling power houses Iowa State, both Oklahoma schools, and the ten other Big Ten, and all Big 12 schools! I thought Keith Olbermann would have given his school a shout out, but Cornell’s victory over Wisconsin in basketball overshadowed their awesome finish in the NCAA wrestling tournament.