The ‘Lower 41’: To Cathcart and Beyond!
SECOND OF A CONTINUING SERIES
My scholarly treatise on semiotics, the Hapsburg dynasty, Game Theory, and Gerald Brady will just have to wait for another day.
Exigent circumstances in the form of House Minority Leader Dick Cathcart’s retirement have taken precedence. And, while we’re at it, we’ll look at another intriguing ‘Appo’ (as Joanne Christian puts it) area race.
Here’s the one thing you need to know about Cathcart and the 9th RD: This was going to be a competitive race with or without Cathcart. No less an authority than El Somnmambulo (Third Person Version) predicted it. Geez, rereading this piece, and a brilliant one it is, I had forgotten that, and I quote:
A well-connected Republican has told El Somnambulo that he believes Cathcart will retire. While ‘bulo is skeptical and expects him to run for at least one more term, he could well understand why Cathcart would pack it in. Cathcart was born in 1944, so he’s already 64 years old. He will be about a week shy of his 66th birthday come Election Day, 2010. Cathcart is politically astute, and he realizes that ‘the trend is not his friend‘, that the numbers in his district can only get worse. He also appears to subscribe to the ‘bulo Philosophy of Exercising, aka ‘it’ll kill ya’, and will not be able to campaign nearly as vigorously as a younger challenger, although some women admire a manly ‘pear-shape’.
We also find in this award-deserving piece the reason why Cathcart has stated he is not running. Ironically, I wrote this as a critique of Becky Walker’s decision to run in 2008:
Like the first time, you must examine your situation and ask yourself whether the time is right to run. Any prospective candidate must ask themselves whether the time is right (a) with your family situation and (b) with your employment situation. If the answer to either is no, then the time simply isn’t right. If answers to both are ‘yes’, then they must honestly ask and answer the question do they have the fire in the belly? If the answer is no, no harm and no foul, the time is just not right. Becky Walker’s work situation was so demanding that, in hindsight, there was no way that she would have had enough time to do sufficient outreach to the voters.
It now looks like Dick Cathcart took the advice that Becky Walker failed to heed. BTW, this is Politics 101, not some magical formula conjured up by El Somnambulo.
Fi-i-i-i-nally, time to take a look at the 9th RD. To get the full effect of this series, I highly recommend checking out each district map as we go along. You’ll need Adobe, or something like it, but it’s really worth it. Got it? OK, click on RD 9, I can wait…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXGhvoekY44[/youtube]
I see you’re back. You will notice that RD 9 meanders from Delaware City in the east along the C & D Canal west to Middletown, south to Port Penn and Odessa, and further south to more rural and less populated areas of New Castle County. This will no doubt be a more compact district following the 2012 redistricting, as population growth in this area far exceeds the state norm. When I first put this race on my 10 Top Targets List in April of 2009, the voter registration was as follows: 8156 D’s; 6396 R’s; and 4517 I’s. The current registration is: 8548 D’s; 6515 R’s; and 4714 I’s. Over 2,000 more registered D’s than R’s. Significant, but not necessarily decisive. What should alarm R’s, however, is that this is not one of those rural Democrats in Name Only districts. Obama defeated McCain in the 9th RD, 8377-5833. Noted political analyst Scooby sez: “Ruh-roh”.
I cannot overstate how the Cathcart retirement has damaged R chances to hold this seat. He barely held on despite less-than-inspired campaigns by Becky Walker, who garnered 46.5% of the vote in 2006 and 46.2% in ’08. The R’s now have to start from scratch. Cathcart has endorsed yet another state cop as his replacement, John Marino, age 45. There is something obscene about somebody, anybody, being able to retire at age 45 and then build a second (or is it third?) pension at state expense. Also, keep in mind that this is not a Special Election and there’s still about a week until the filing deadline. There’s no guarantee that there won’t be a primary (or primaries) for this seat. Paging RSmitty…
Regardless, it takes time to organize a campaign from a standing start. And the D’s have a candidate, Richard Griffiths, who has been in the race since April and, on paper, appears to be a strong one. I recall reading that he was the Head Official for the Middletown-Odessa-Townsend Youth Soccer League. Believe me, in an area with lots of new residents, youth soccer is one area where people connect. I don’t know him personally, so I’ll defer to people like JC, RSmitty, and Liberal Geek to help fill in the blanks about both (for now) candidates.
Suffice it to say that, as of now:
9th RD: Democratic Lean. Likelihood of Party Switch (from R to D): 60%
As a prelude to my analysis of RD 8, please allow me to quote from noted correspondent, and Appoquinimink School Board member, Joanne Christian, on Cathcart’s retirement:
This is very disheartening–Dick was a fierce advocate for Appoquinimink in navigating MANY financial/legislative hurdles only known to a growing school district. He will be missed–and whomever takes his place, better hit the track running. Quinn Johnson did down here in the 8th–a huge Appo territory too. Don’t even plan on running if you aren’t going to work as hard as we work these two reps.
Those running in the 9th should heed Ms. Christian’s advice. That district is dealing with explosive growth, and it really needs elected officials who are more than mere placeholders. When’s the next Board meeting, JC?
I also mention this not only for JC’s words about Quinn Johnson, but b/c school board politics are playing an interesting, almost comical, role in the 8th RD race. Try to follow me on this. Quinn Johnson’s wife, Julie Johnson, serves on the Appoquinimink School Board. In May of this year, Johnson defeated Valerie Jones-Rabb for a seat on the Appoquinimink Board by a margin of 2-1: 176-85. Jones-Rabb previously ran and lost for an At-Large seat on the Board in 2009, finishing fourth in a five-person race. This is not to disparage Ms. Jones-Rabb, who appears to have a credible resume to her credit. But, when you lose a school board election in May, and then file to run against the husband of the person who defeated you in June, it is fair to question your motivation. This is actually a primary that will benefit Quinn Johnson, as he will be more visible between now and September than otherwise might have been the case. He is odds-on favorite to win the primary, somewhere around 90%.
The winner of the primary faces Kate Rokosz in the fall. Her website and her handbill are one and the same. I find it admirable that people like this are willing to run. Having said that, this candidacy appears to be little more than a ‘name on the ballot’.
Johnson appears to have the perfect profile for this district. The district(click on RD 8) takes in the bulk of incorporated Middletown, Townsend, and portions of Smyrna & Clayton. The district crosses county lines, with four election districts in Kent County, and 8 in New Castle County. This will almost certainly be entirely contained within New Castle County following reapportionment. Registration figures are: 9800 D’s; 5762 R’s; and 4804 I’s.
Johnson won his first term in 2008 against Martha Sturtevant, someone who used to work for the R House Caucus and is well-liked by the people who worked with her, including me. Nevertheless, Johnson got 57% of the vote to Sturtevant’s 43%. With two years of incumbency, and a weaker opponent, Johnson is well-positioned for reelection in this district previously held by Bethany Hall-Long.
The only real longshot for an R pickup would be if Johnson somehow loses the primary to Valerie Jones-Rabb. Otherwise, the numbers and the lack of an A list candidate are too daunting.
8th R. D.-Strongly Democratic: 93% Chance of Retention.
Rick Griffiths has truly hit the ground running, with a website, appearances in the requisite parades, handbills, a kickoff event and he has already been knocking on doors and sitting across the kitchen table from voters.
I wasn’t involved in Becky’s campaigns, but I have heard people talk about how organized and committed Rick is by comparison.
Rebecca’s comment on another thread does concern me. The 9th RD has endorsed Rick and he has put a lot of work and money into this thing. If the party pushes someone else into the race at this point, there will be a real issue on the local level.
I think that Rebecca may be worried about Chris & Stephanie Roberts making mischief, as is their wont.
I’d be a little worried myself. They simply can’t be trusted.
Next school board meeting Tuesday July 13th at 7pm–Appoquinimink Training Center on Route 13. The loss of Rep. Cathcart will be huge to the district. But the folks at Leg Hall really need to tighten those leg boundaries on the behalf of ALL their stress levels. They cover way too much fragmented, lengthy territory. I don’t know how Cathcart was able to give us the quality citizen service he did–and Quinn Johnson now does too. I have yet to speak w/ Griffiths on any school district issues–but hey, if the citizens want a great soccer coach, than so be it. But, I can assure him–all those soccer folks want a great district–and that doesn’t happen eating orange slices, and wearing cleats. Does he want to give that up?
While the Middletown area boundaries will be tightened to reflect the growth in the area following reapportionment, you would have to increase the numbers of legislators from the current 21 senators and 41 reps, respectively, to accomplish that statewide.
There was a push by both the Senate and House minority caucuses to do that 10 years ago, but it was shot down, I think, appropriately.
Reapportionment is in part designed to ensure that areas experiencing the greatest growth get proportionately more representation than areas that have a stagnant, or diminishing, population.
C’mon El–I know that–and don’t want more legislators–but let’s get REAL about those “protected” boundaries. And yes “both sides” are at fault. Give it up folks.
I don’t get what you mean re the Appo area. At least one more district (#8, which had previously been a Brandywine 100 district held by Dave Brady) moved to below the canal. That follows #9 (Hebner) moving from Brandywine 100 the previous decade.
There are clearly districts drawn to benefit specific legislators and/or parties, and I’ll point them out as I get to them.
I’d just appreciate more of your sense of what happened and what should have happened as it pertains to your area of the county. I’m honestly not familiar with what you’re trying to say.
Oh good–“There are clearly districts drawn to benefit specific legislators and/or parties, and I’ll point them out as I get to them.”
That’s the part I’m talking about–legislators went for political viability instead of a reasonable boundary divide. Looking forward to your commentary–since the 8th and 9th were the last victims.
Well, one thing you said isn’t quite true, IMHO. In general, boundaries are supposed to be reasonable, communities should be kept together whenever possible, districts should be compact.
The Wayne Smith reapportionment of 10 years ago threw all that stuff out the window in order to cobble together an R majority in the face of daunting registration numbers. I’ve worked on two senate reapportionments. We’d never seen anything like the districts that the House R’s came up with. We urged the D’s to take the plan to court, the D’s didn’t do it. You will see cleaner plans this time.
And, you’ve been warned. Get and stay active. Identify a like-minded group of below-the-canal residents to get active to ensure that your interests are considered and protected during the process.
That makes sense for anyone concerned about representative government. The cold hard facts are: The General Assembly, not some so-called impartial non-partisan body (BTW, there ain’t no such thing), will draw the lines. Prepare for it, and do everything you can to have input into the process. BEFORE the lines are drawn, not just after it.
What was not “quite true”? I totally agree w/ your Wayne Smith assessment, and it continued down here. That’s what I’m saying–we better see cleaner plans this time. The domino effect continued across the canal. Maybe new legislators won’t be as politically astute/connected to every dang polling district. Do you have a quick count of how many “new” legislators have taken office from reps. and senate in the last 8 years? Perhaps a quick and dirty percentage? I know–sounds like a job for “Delaware by the Numbers”–that brilliant contributor:).
I don’t get the impression that Stephanie and Chris have anything to do with it. Stephanie is the district chair, so it makes sense that she would be consulted, but I am pretty sure that she isn’t pushing anyone to jump into the race. She has been pretty steadfast in her support of Rick and the whole committee has been happy with his organization.
There are apparently others that have been waiting in the wings to jump in when Dick decided to hang it up. In my opinion, if they didn’t have the fire in the belly to take on Dick, they should reconsider their motivations.
I was referencing this quote, JC: “And yes “both sides” are at fault. Give it up folks.”
Redistricting is by nature a very political process. But what Smith and the Rethugs did in 2002 took it to a whole ‘nother level. The basic standards for the drawing of district lines were thrown out the window.
And, Geek, if Griffiths’ campaign is as far along as you say it is, then he should have little to fear from a primary, and maybe something to gain.
I also find it hard to believe that R’s who were counting on Cathcart will accept his chosen successor w/o some sort of skepticism. Whether he wanted to or not, he really screwed them.
Geek,
I don’t know of anybody waiting in the wings, and I sure don’t know of anybody the party would prefer over Rick. I think he’s a great candidate and the members of the 9th District Committee should be congratulated for recruiting and endorsing him.
However, when opportunity knocks, in the form of an open seat, there is usually an opportunist waiting to answer. And there isn’t a whole lot, other than moral suasion, that the party can do to stop them.
It happened in the 24th after Oberle announced his retirement and it could easily happen again in the 9th.
E.S. no matter the progress of Griffiths campaign, the names that I have heard bandied about are not without organizations (nascent or not). It will be an interesting week in Middletown.
I don’t think the Oberle situation applies, as it had been known for quite a long time that he was retiring, and there was plenty of time for more than one candidate to develop a campaign.
Here, you’ve got a candidate who is organized and is out there working. Gonna be real tough for anyone to mount a credible primary challenge this late in the game. Gonna be tough for ANY R to do likewise.
Geez, Geekster, can you possibly be more cryptic? A fire chief? A Billings? Does Dave Levinson still live there?
Rebecca – It is my impression that the two candidates in the 24th were actually committed to running prior to Oberle’s resignation.
I’m too cryptic for E.S.??? Sweet. I feel like some sort of threshold has been crossed.
I am being purposefully cryptic. I know several names, but I am not at liberty to say. I will ask this, if you are thinking of running, please let the 9th committee know before you file.
Nope Geek!
Kay started planning and working on her campaign back in August of 2009.
Ed didn’t get interested until after Oberle announced his retirement, and I’m told by reliable sources that Mark Brainard urged him to run for the open seat.
Rebecca – My source tells me that last summer, both of them had expressed an interest in running. I believe that Ed had backed down, and may just have re-engaged after the retirement.
Similarly, Becky Walker and Rick Griffiths both had expressed interest in running for the 9th. Becky decided that it wasn’t her time and yielded to Rick.
lg,
You’re wrong. If Ed had interest before Oberle’s retirement he didn’t mention it through the party. After Oberle announced his retirement, Ed informed the committee and the party of his intention to run.
‘That makes sense for anyone concerned about representative government. The cold hard facts are: The General Assembly, not some so-called impartial non-partisan body (BTW, there ain’t no such thing), will draw the lines. Prepare for it, and do everything you can to have input into the process. BEFORE the lines are drawn, not just after it.’
I understand that the current rules call for the majority caucus (closed-door!) of each house to meet and work out the boundaries. Convenient that this is exempt from the open-government law. Push the candidates to commit to have all of the upcoming redistricting meetings open to the public.
Gilligan actually co-sponsored fair redistricting legislation years ago (after Wayne Smith’s deplorable shenanigans, but BEFORE Gilligan became speaker). Guess what? Gilligan no longer supports open-air redistricting. He first wants his chance to pull a Wayne Smith.
I hereby announce that I am not running for the seat in the 9th ….as a Democrat…. ????? The plot thickens…. Okay, I’ll come clean. I’ve spoken to some people and if the teabag party offers to endorse me and that endorsement comes with money attached, I’ll consider it.
Never say never, right?
Cathcart created his district because he knew Hall-Long would take him down the next election, so they cut her out and put her in the 8th – which she carried and handed over to Johnson.
I think the 9th is for the Dems to take, if they don’t snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory – which they are known to do…
UI – I must have misunderstood.
Rick Griffiths is the endorsed 9th district candidate. His platform of family, jobs and the environment are the most important issues affecting the people of this area. Rick is the candidate to win, yes, All of this back and forth is just giving those Republicans time and opportunity to defeat democrats…We must be united in our candidate and must throw all support behind him to win this fall. I encourage everyone to spend some time with Rick and you will soon realize the passion and the dedication he has to serve the people not the politics of Dover unlike some of these late comers.
Paul,
I’m with Gilligan on the redistricting issue. I know that puts me at cross-purposes with most of my PDD friends but I see this as an extension of the Nader theme “there’s no difference between the parties.”
As we witnessed under BushCo and are still suffering from the consequences, there is a huge, gigantic difference between the parties. Given that difference, I believe we have a duty to take every advantage we can get to be sure Democrats — the party of fairness –get to govern. It is our obligation to be sure that our party gets to pull the levers to serve the people versus serving the corporations.
The unbridled power of corporate money, lobbyists, The Roberts’ Court that is determined to turn over our democracy to the folks who can buy it, and all the other power factors that favor corporations over citizens must be checked. We have an obligation to fight to the last ditch, and that includes controlling the reapportionment process.
We are engaged in a struggle with the mighty goliath of corporate greed and its enablers in the Republican Party. If we give away one single weapon then we are betraying the citizens of America.
I agree with Rebecca 100%. There is no honor in applying a tougher set of rules to ourselves than are recognized by the courts.
Jason–I think I’ll get sick. Just because it’s legal doesn’t make it right. And there is greater honor in fighting for that–and you really don’t have to go too far back into history to substantiate that.
I love me some JC – but naturally she wants Democrats to bring knives to the GOP’s gun fight.
Then we’ll just have to bring WMD 🙂 !!!!!!
Joanne,
One of my sorrows in life is that we have chosen opposite sides. Still, what Jason says is right. We would be purely stupid to handicap ourselves in this struggle for truth, justice, and the American way.
Believe me Rebecca, we haven’t chosen opposite sides. I think our glasses are different prescription strengths. We’ll get there.
The bleeping problem with the D’s at the national level is that they’ve ‘unilaterally disarmed’ in the spirit of seeking some phony ‘bipartisanship’, which is merely code for ‘mutual support of corporate oligarchy’.
Why would we ever want to give up an advantage afforded us by our majority status? Any plan the D’s draw will be far cleaner than the Wayne Smith/Jackson Pollock reapportionment of 2002.
And I repeat a point I’ve made several times over: There is no such thing as an impartial arbiter. Politics informs everything that happens in Delaware. Judges? Appointed by governors with the approval of the Senate. Institutions of higher learning? Competing with other institutions of higher learning for state $$’s. There simply AIN’T no such animal.
The bleeping problem with the D’s at the national level is that they’ve ‘unilaterally disarmed’ in the spirit of seeking some phony ‘bipartisanship’, which is merely code for ‘mutual support of corporate oligarchy’.
–Well said SleepTalker!!! I think we can do better than that locally. Thanks.
Love the Jackson Pollock–or Jackson Politics tee hee reference!!
Rebecca wrote: “there is a huge, gigantic difference between the parties.”
If only this were true. Unfortunately, the differences are small and around the margins.
We mustn’t give up any tactical political weapons unilaterally in the battle against the republickins, but we also should not be afraid to use them on Democrats, either.
There is a “huge, gigantic difference” between just being a Democrat and being a progressive or liberal.
I would go even further than JC. We should get redistricting out of the hands of politicians and into the hands of — heck, anyone else. Iowa Democrat could easily write an essay on the wisdom of that state, in which (IIRC) a judicial panel, not the state legislature, draws its congressional districts.
Even if left in the legislature’s hands, wouldn’t it be nice if the rules prioritized both geographically compact districts and competitive balance in D/R/I registrations? All that stands in the way is the greed and ego of politicians (snark).
OK, now that we’ve heard that Becky Walker has joined the fray, what does it mean?
While I take UI’s point about name recognition, her organization has been next to non-existent in her two runs. So much so that leaders in the House Democratic Caucus threw up their hands in exasperation at her middling efforts in 2008, and spent their last-minute attention on other races.
I think that there will be a negative reaction from leaders in the 9th as well. Someone else is doing the heavy lifting, and you presume to come in at the last minute. Why, your sense of entitlement? It’s clearly not your devotion to public service, otherwise you’d have been in the race already.
For Griffiths, he needs to do what he’s doing. And he’d better be ID’ing his Democratic supporters for the primary and getting them out. If he does that, he’ll be just fine. Neither he nor any spokespeople for his campaign should publicly badmouth Walker. There’ll be enough of that to go around w/o his help.
I’ve also heard that perhaps a third D has been considering this race. One who would be more suited to serve as head of the Delaware Chapter of Toastmasters International than as a state rep. Hope I’m wrong.
The latest number that I have for Dems interested in running in the 9th is 4. Only two have filed, Griffiths and Walker.
Surely Griffiths should have a big head start in contacting voters over Walker and the 2 other unnamed candidates.
UI – yes, I think that is true, although Becky would certainly have an edge in signage and residual name recognition. We will see what develops in the next few days.
About Walker, didn’t she agree to let the endorsement process decide the candidate?
She cast a vote in the unanimous decision of the 9th to endorse Rick.
I would go even further than JC. We should get redistricting out of the hands of politicians and into the hands of — heck, anyone else.
*
There was a bill introduced this spring in leg hall(and written by Frank Sims of the Independent Party I believe) for the redistricting to be turned over to an independent group. Na.gonna.happen.2010 but maybe after this round of DEMs hands in the pie.
El et. al.- this is why I read DL – great content and where we can make a difference – keep it up! lu
Thanks, lulu!