SECOND OF A CONTINUING SERIES
My scholarly treatise on semiotics, the Hapsburg dynasty, Game Theory, and Gerald Brady will just have to wait for another day.
Exigent circumstances in the form of House Minority Leader Dick Cathcart’s retirement have taken precedence. And, while we’re at it, we’ll look at another intriguing ‘Appo’ (as Joanne Christian puts it) area race.
Here’s the one thing you need to know about Cathcart and the 9th RD: This was going to be a competitive race with or without Cathcart. No less an authority than El Somnmambulo (Third Person Version) predicted it. Geez, rereading this piece, and a brilliant one it is, I had forgotten that, and I quote:
A well-connected Republican has told El Somnambulo that he believes Cathcart will retire. While ‘bulo is skeptical and expects him to run for at least one more term, he could well understand why Cathcart would pack it in. Cathcart was born in 1944, so he’s already 64 years old. He will be about a week shy of his 66th birthday come Election Day, 2010. Cathcart is politically astute, and he realizes that ‘the trend is not his friend‘, that the numbers in his district can only get worse. He also appears to subscribe to the ‘bulo Philosophy of Exercising, aka ‘it’ll kill ya’, and will not be able to campaign nearly as vigorously as a younger challenger, although some women admire a manly ‘pear-shape’.
We also find in this award-deserving piece the reason why Cathcart has stated he is not running. Ironically, I wrote this as a critique of Becky Walker’s decision to run in 2008:
Like the first time, you must examine your situation and ask yourself whether the time is right to run. Any prospective candidate must ask themselves whether the time is right (a) with your family situation and (b) with your employment situation. If the answer to either is no, then the time simply isn’t right. If answers to both are ‘yes’, then they must honestly ask and answer the question do they have the fire in the belly? If the answer is no, no harm and no foul, the time is just not right. Becky Walker’s work situation was so demanding that, in hindsight, there was no way that she would have had enough time to do sufficient outreach to the voters.
It now looks like Dick Cathcart took the advice that Becky Walker failed to heed. BTW, this is Politics 101, not some magical formula conjured up by El Somnambulo.
Fi-i-i-i-nally, time to take a look at the 9th RD. To get the full effect of this series, I highly recommend checking out each district map as we go along. You’ll need Adobe, or something like it, but it’s really worth it. Got it? OK, click on RD 9, I can wait…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXGhvoekY44[/youtube]
I see you’re back. You will notice that RD 9 meanders from Delaware City in the east along the C & D Canal west to Middletown, south to Port Penn and Odessa, and further south to more rural and less populated areas of New Castle County. This will no doubt be a more compact district following the 2012 redistricting, as population growth in this area far exceeds the state norm. When I first put this race on my 10 Top Targets List in April of 2009, the voter registration was as follows: 8156 D’s; 6396 R’s; and 4517 I’s. The current registration is: 8548 D’s; 6515 R’s; and 4714 I’s. Over 2,000 more registered D’s than R’s. Significant, but not necessarily decisive. What should alarm R’s, however, is that this is not one of those rural Democrats in Name Only districts. Obama defeated McCain in the 9th RD, 8377-5833. Noted political analyst Scooby sez: “Ruh-roh”.
I cannot overstate how the Cathcart retirement has damaged R chances to hold this seat. He barely held on despite less-than-inspired campaigns by Becky Walker, who garnered 46.5% of the vote in 2006 and 46.2% in ’08. The R’s now have to start from scratch. Cathcart has endorsed yet another state cop as his replacement, John Marino, age 45. There is something obscene about somebody, anybody, being able to retire at age 45 and then build a second (or is it third?) pension at state expense. Also, keep in mind that this is not a Special Election and there’s still about a week until the filing deadline. There’s no guarantee that there won’t be a primary (or primaries) for this seat. Paging RSmitty…
Regardless, it takes time to organize a campaign from a standing start. And the D’s have a candidate, Richard Griffiths, who has been in the race since April and, on paper, appears to be a strong one. I recall reading that he was the Head Official for the Middletown-Odessa-Townsend Youth Soccer League. Believe me, in an area with lots of new residents, youth soccer is one area where people connect. I don’t know him personally, so I’ll defer to people like JC, RSmitty, and Liberal Geek to help fill in the blanks about both (for now) candidates.
Suffice it to say that, as of now:
9th RD: Democratic Lean. Likelihood of Party Switch (from R to D): 60%
As a prelude to my analysis of RD 8, please allow me to quote from noted correspondent, and Appoquinimink School Board member, Joanne Christian, on Cathcart’s retirement:
This is very disheartening–Dick was a fierce advocate for Appoquinimink in navigating MANY financial/legislative hurdles only known to a growing school district. He will be missed–and whomever takes his place, better hit the track running. Quinn Johnson did down here in the 8th–a huge Appo territory too. Don’t even plan on running if you aren’t going to work as hard as we work these two reps.
Those running in the 9th should heed Ms. Christian’s advice. That district is dealing with explosive growth, and it really needs elected officials who are more than mere placeholders. When’s the next Board meeting, JC?
I also mention this not only for JC’s words about Quinn Johnson, but b/c school board politics are playing an interesting, almost comical, role in the 8th RD race. Try to follow me on this. Quinn Johnson’s wife, Julie Johnson, serves on the Appoquinimink School Board. In May of this year, Johnson defeated Valerie Jones-Rabb for a seat on the Appoquinimink Board by a margin of 2-1: 176-85. Jones-Rabb previously ran and lost for an At-Large seat on the Board in 2009, finishing fourth in a five-person race. This is not to disparage Ms. Jones-Rabb, who appears to have a credible resume to her credit. But, when you lose a school board election in May, and then file to run against the husband of the person who defeated you in June, it is fair to question your motivation. This is actually a primary that will benefit Quinn Johnson, as he will be more visible between now and September than otherwise might have been the case. He is odds-on favorite to win the primary, somewhere around 90%.
The winner of the primary faces Kate Rokosz in the fall. Her website and her handbill are one and the same. I find it admirable that people like this are willing to run. Having said that, this candidacy appears to be little more than a ‘name on the ballot’.
Johnson appears to have the perfect profile for this district. The district(click on RD 8) takes in the bulk of incorporated Middletown, Townsend, and portions of Smyrna & Clayton. The district crosses county lines, with four election districts in Kent County, and 8 in New Castle County. This will almost certainly be entirely contained within New Castle County following reapportionment. Registration figures are: 9800 D’s; 5762 R’s; and 4804 I’s.
Johnson won his first term in 2008 against Martha Sturtevant, someone who used to work for the R House Caucus and is well-liked by the people who worked with her, including me. Nevertheless, Johnson got 57% of the vote to Sturtevant’s 43%. With two years of incumbency, and a weaker opponent, Johnson is well-positioned for reelection in this district previously held by Bethany Hall-Long.
The only real longshot for an R pickup would be if Johnson somehow loses the primary to Valerie Jones-Rabb. Otherwise, the numbers and the lack of an A list candidate are too daunting.
8th R. D.-Strongly Democratic: 93% Chance of Retention.