The DE Senate [2010]
We reviewed the state of the House races, and we found, or well, I predicted, that after all is said and done, the House will remain exactly the same. What about the Senate? The Democrats have a 15 to 6 majority. Republicans would have to net five seats to gain a majority. There are 11 seats up for election this year. Democrats are defending 8 of the 11 seats. The three Republicans running are Dori Connor, Joe Booth, and Cathy Cloutier. Thus, as you can see, the Democratic opportunity to expand their majority is quite limited, with our only real shot being defeating Cathy Cloutier, after long last.
The GOP is not challenging McDowell, Bunting and McBride, and we Democrats are giving Dori Connor a pass yet again and we have not yet found a candidate to challenge Joe Booth (or God forbid, Eric Bodenweiser) in the 19th. Yes, Joe Booth has a primary against a Tea Bagger. I won’t predict that race because God knows I have no idea how Rethugs think. But it is a big (and probably final) test of Tea Bag Power in the state of Delaware. I say ‘final’ because if the Tea Baggers don’t win in 2010 (either in the 19th or elsewhere), they will be crushed and will then resort to the violence they so desperately crave, and then the fun begins.
George Bunting is also not being challenged by the Republicans, yet, but he is being challenged by a Democrat, Perry Mitchell. I will defer to others downstate to see if this primary challenge is just a token one. The remaining Senators have all avoided a primary election, and the general election matchups are set.
THE SENATE
| SAFE D | LEAN D | TOSS UP | LEAN R | SAFE R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDowell (1) | Blevins (7) | Cloutier (5) | Connor (12) | ||
| Bunting (20) | Sokola (8) | Booth (19) | |||
| McBride (13) | Cook (15) | ||||
| Peterson (9) | |||||
| Ennis (14) |
As you can see, it is impossible for the GOP to win back the Senate. They need to pick up 5 seats, and the only toss up race I foresee is one they will be defending, Cathy Cloutier in the 5th. They may be able to make the 7th, 8th, and 15th Senate Districts competitive (where I have categorized the races as “Lean Democratic”). But to win the Senate, they would not only have to win those three districts, but also pull shocking and miraculous victories over Karen Peterson and Bruce Ennis to get to a pick-up of five seats they would need to capture the majority, all the while holding onto to the competitive 5th Senate District. I simply do not see it happening. I think it is possible, perhaps likely, that the Republicans will knock off one of the three “Lean D” districts, with Patty Blevins being the most obvious choice since Fred Cullis decided to withdraw from his quixotic race for the US Congress to focus his energies on Patty. Or it could be longtime incumbent Nancy Cook in Kent County. But that pickup will be offset from what I see as the long awaited defeat of Cathy Cloutier in the 5th.
So, if I were a betting man, I would once again, predict that the Senate, like the House, will remain exactly the same, with there being 15 Democrats and 6 Republicans.
(5) CATHY CLOUTIER—Toss-up. The Beast who Slumbers has written extensively about Cathy Cloutier and her status as the most endangered Republican in the Senate. He has also met with her opponent this time around, Christopher Counihan. You can read his post resulting from that interview here. Here is an excerpt:
I met with Counihan last week at Brew Ha Ha, and came away with the distinct sense that the race is now his to lose. Counihan has […] been working on the campaign for several months, has put together a very strong campaign team and, most importantly of all, will make a very positive impression with voters. […] He has a PhD. and teaches international relations at the University of Delaware. In addition to his business background, outlined at his website, he has also taught at St. Joe’s, Immaculata College, and West Chester University. He will be in a position to wage an aggressive door-to-door campaign, and says that he loves to do so. […] He is very involved with the Claymont Community Center and the Claymont Renaissance, and is working on a very exciting project that could prove to be invaluable to Claymont’s economic recovery.
The key question in this race is who will get the support of organized labor? In 2006, Cloutier begged them to support her again, and they did, and she barely slipped past an unknown candidate in Pat Morrison. Will Labor do that again? If they support Counihan, he wins going away. If they support the Republican Cloutier, it is quite possible Cloutier will squeeze by yet again, but it is just as possible that Counihan will win without their help, and then he owes them nothing.
(7) PATTY BLEVINS—Lean Democratic. Fred Cullis is the Majority Leader’s opponent this time around. She won with 73% in 2006. Fred Cullis might want to consider changing his website domain name, as it still says Cullis for Delaware, a remnant from his Congressional race. But I guess Cullis for the Seventh doesn’t sound as good. Cullis’ name recognition is probably higher than most of Blevins’ past opponents, but does that translate into making this race competitive? And do our progressive frustrations with Blevins equate to her constituents’ frustration with her, and is Cullis an acceptable replacement for her in their eyes? Those unanswered questions are why I classify this as a Lean Democratic race.
(8) DAVID SOKOLA—Lean Democratic. I classify this as a Lean Democratic race only because Sokola won in 2006 with “only” 57% of the vote. For a Senator who has been in office since 1990, that seems low to me, but then again, that was a vast improvement over the 51% he received in 2002. So I may be just talking out of my ass, but I just feel like this race might be competitive. I cannot tell if his challenger, Republican Louis Saindon, is a credible candidate who can make this race competitive. Bulo calls Saindon “one of those cookie cutters from another Rethug front organization–Leadership Delaware.”
(9) KAREN PETERSON—Safe Democratic. The Progressive champion, who was unopposed in 2006, is being challenged by Robert S. Johnston, who resigned his position as President of the Exton, PA Chamber of Commerce to take on this race. Johnston does live in Newark, he just works in Pennsylvania, which is fine since I do too. Here is an interesting tidbit: Johnston’s wife, Karen, is a Democrat. I wonder who she will be voting for. LOL.
(14) BRUCE ENNIS—Safe Democratic. Ennis seems well suited for his district, but this will be his first race for reelection. His opponent, John Moritz, is a Townsend resident and the President of Delta Engineering Corp., an aeronautical engineering firm.
(15) NANCY COOK—Lean Democratic. I classify this as a Lean Democratic district due to the conservative nature of the district, Cook’s longevity in the seat (i.e. voters may be looking for a change), and this being a Republican year. If the GOP had a credible challenger, this would probably be a competitive toss up race. Is Republican David Lawson a credible challenger? He is a retired Delaware State Police lieutenant and current owner of the “Shooter’s Choice” gun store in Dover. He is a certified firearms instructor, teaching the course that applicants for a concealed-carry permit must pass.
I have a few thoughts…
1) Since they can’t win a majority, they could make their goal to stay ahead of Massachusetts in number of Republicans left in the Senate. Right now MA has 5, while DE has 6.
2) What’s the situation in Senate District 6? That’s where I’m now registered (at UD) so I’m curious and didn’t see it mentioned here.
3) I had a class with Chris Counihan last fall, right when he was getting ready to announce (formally) his candidacy. I probably won’t be taking any future classes with him and I’m not affiliated with his campaign, so this is just my personal, uninfluenced opinion. He was probably my favorite professor so far and one of my best teachers in recent memory. The reason was because he was so engaging and enthusiastic. He knew the material and how to teach it effectively, and you could tell he cared. When I asked if I could write on my blog that he was going to run, he was totally fine with that, and we had several other conversations about various races before I had really gotten involved at all in DE politics. He clearly applies his enthusiasm and caring to just about everything, not just the course material. I got that from the class anecdotes and the personal conversations. Any voters who are on the fence in this race will probably immediately go with him, and he can also probably persuade a lot of people leaning toward the incumbent who aren’t yet committed. He’ll put in the work to win, which isn’t always true for every candidate. So I don’t know much about the particular dynamics of that race, but he probably has a very good shot.
Was driving through the outer environs of the 15th recently and saw a ton of Lawson signs. Look for this to be competitive. Hell, if I lived up there, I’d vote for him over Cook in a heartbeat. Granted, I’d vote for a dead mule over Cook, but still.
In the 20th, Perry Mitchell has no chance of unseating Bunting, who’s been doing the job for ages and is incredibly popular. Mitchell at first tried to run for the U.S. Senate, but dropped out quickly. He’s basically a conservative in Democratic clothing. His one issue is the casino project that Bunting’s son proposed at the Inlet. In Ocean View, where he serves as a councilman, he’s pretty much viewed as an annoying fuckwit with a small constituency of senior citizen gripers.
WRONG. Mitchell is no conservative. Hes campaigning that Buntings not liberal enough. I like Bunting and he wins big!
Bill, there is no race in the 6th SD this year.
Mitchell was at the 14th RD picnic a couple of weeks ago. His toupee kept slipping off and he sat at a picnic table not speaking to anyone. Bunting was working the crowd. He’s popular, even if his son is an asshole.
Believe what you want. This is from an e-mail he sent out about his U.S. Senate campaign earlier this year:
My campaign is about jobs, reviving the Delaware economy and holding Wall Street accountable for their greed.
On some issues, I will run to the right of Castle and hope to gain some Independent and Republican votes.
I will follow the teachings of my church on life and marriage issues. Castle and Coons, my Democratic opponent, are pro choice. Castle has a 100% rating with NRAL Pro Choice.
I will support the Second Amendment and the right of every American to own a gun and use it to defend his home. Castle and Coons will be for gun control. Castle has been given an F rating by National Rifle Association based on a lifetime of voting on gun issues.
I am running on a plan to reform and lower our corporate income tax, to abolish our personal income tax, and federal debt over ten years. Many European countries have lowered their corporate income tax and it is time the U. S. should do the same so that we can create more jobs for Americans.
Yeah. That’s not conservative?
I just love it when Republicans talk about jobs. Like they ever gave a crap about them before the Great Recession.
I love the conservative thought that you can abolish all taxes AND eliminate debt in 10 years. It has been proven to be impossible. We have tried supply side economics twice in our history under President Reagan and President George W. Bush, and each time the economy went into a severe recession, and each time the deficit and debt exploded.
Forgot to add that Mitchell has a history of running longshot, quixotic campaigns.
In 1992, before he retired as a professor at Northern Virginia Community College, he ran for Congress as an independent, running fourth (behind the Democrat, Republican and another independent) with 1.8 percent of the vote.
Honestly, he makes me think of the LaRoucheites.
Ah yes, as you call some people Tea Baggers now all Liberal Losers are Ball Busters as your policies have ruined the lives of working people.
Obama the racist has let unemployment for non whites climb to triple the percentage and the economy has severely hurt low to middle income workers, the same people Obama is going to raise taxes on very soon.
As for the Senate Cloutier is toast and as long as Senate Professional Crook DeLucca runs the place nothing good will come and Markell has become delucca’s boy.
The Dem aka Ball Buster policies have brought misery and unemployment to America in record numbers, way to go you losers.
“…Cloutier is toast…” That is good news. Although given the nonsensical nature of the rest of the comment, I’m forced to conclude that Cloutier is probably safe.
Apparently Tweety was hassling some magical tax cut conservative last night on Hardball. He was asking him why we just shouldn’t cut the top taxes enough so that our debt would go to zero.
Good stuff again. Blevins is safe, though. I’d love to see her have a credible challenge, but Cullis ain’t flyin’ in that district.
Sokola has always had to win in at best an R-leaning district. Progressives should have his back. He’s one of the best in Dover.
Get to know Louis Saindon and he is no “cookie cutter” “ReTHUG” – he is a good guy.
I Guess if you just want to name call instead of get to know someone – Bulo can keep doing what he always has.
Or I guess you could cite something to illustrate your point. No, never mind — we should just take the word of an anonymous “independent” about it.
I didn’t suggest you should take my word for anything, I said you should get to know him. if we continue this automatic bashing based on party alone – without doing the work to get to know the candidiates – we will get stuck with the same broken see-saw of fingerpointing, blaming and little action.
Seems to me that it is time for really getting know the candidiates so we can find the best PERSON. Of course we will never be holding hands and singing together. I woudl like to find candidiates that are really there for the people instead of their own career – that’s all.
Or you can attack me with sarcasm because you don’t like an open mind?