One of the disappointing things about the newly-released PPP Poll was that the Republican primaries were not polled. There’s plenty of raw numbers to look at though. Can we get any hints of how the primaries might go from the raw data? Let’s take a look.
PPP has broken down the approval numbers several ways. One way was by who the voter chose for president in the 2008 election. How do the Republican candidates stack up?
McCain voters Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable (Favorable-Unfavorable)
Mike Castle – 54/31/16/+12
Christine O’Donnell – 32/29/39/+3
Michele Rollins – 22/22/56/0
Glenn Urquhart – 23/18/59/+5
This crude analysis shows that Castle beats O’Donnell handily. O’Donnell’s name recognition is still low so she definitely has room to move up however her favorables are low. The Rollins/Urquhart is a toss-up with a slight lean towards Urquhart. Both Rollins and Urquhart are both largely unknown so this race is quite fluid.
PPP also broke down the numbers by self-reported ideology. Republicans in Delaware would probably label themselves as either “moderate” or “conservative” (I realize that there’s a lot of overlap of moderates with both Independents and Democrats).
Conservatives Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable
Mike Castle – 46/39/15/+7
Christine O’Donnell – 37/23/40/+14
Michele Rollins – 21/19/59/+2
Glenn Urquhart – 25/14/61/+9
O’Donnell has her best showing among conservatives but still trails Castle. Despite rumors to the contrary, Castle is popular among conservatives. Urquhart has a clear advantage with conservatives over Rollins.
What about moderates?
Moderates Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable
Mike Castle – 56/25/18/+31
Christine O’Donnell – 15/38/47/-23
Michele Rollins – 16/27/57/-9
Glenn Urquhart – 12/21/67/-9
Castle is beloved by self-reported moderates. All other Republican candidates are in negative territory, which shows why Republicans have trouble winning in Delaware. Despite having the News Journal declare her a moderate, Rollins is clearly not catching on. She has the same rating with mderates as Glenn Urquhart. I assume Urquhart’s negatives will go up with moderates once they watch Urquhart’s Nazi comments.
One last analysis – how do the Republican candidates rate among Republicans?
Republicans Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable
Mike Castle – 60/25/16/+35
Christine O’Donnell – 34/29/37/+5
Michele Rollins – 27/17/57/+10
Glenn Urquhart – 23/17/59/+6
Castle is popular with Republicans no matter which way you look at the numbers. O’Donnell has an uphill climb. Rollins finally comes out ahead of Urquhart in this match-up so I call their race a toss-up as of now.
What advice do you give each of these candidates? My advice:
Castle – Ignore O’Donnell, keep doing what you’re doing
O’Donnell – Go relentlessly negative to drive down Castle’s numbers. Be sure to get your base support of conservatives out to vote. If you have money, now would be a good time to spend it.
Rollins – Quit sitting on your load of cash and start spending some, otherwise you could lose to Urquhart. Since Urquhart is probably the conservatives’ candidate you have nothing to lose by moving to the left and appealing to moderates. Try to link yourself to Castle more aggressively.
Urquhart – Spend money to raise your name recognition & profile & make sure conservatives come to vote in the primaries