PPP Delaware Poll: Republicans
One of the disappointing things about the newly-released PPP Poll was that the Republican primaries were not polled. There’s plenty of raw numbers to look at though. Can we get any hints of how the primaries might go from the raw data? Let’s take a look.
PPP has broken down the approval numbers several ways. One way was by who the voter chose for president in the 2008 election. How do the Republican candidates stack up?
McCain voters Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable (Favorable-Unfavorable)
Mike Castle – 54/31/16/+12
Christine O’Donnell – 32/29/39/+3
Michele Rollins – 22/22/56/0
Glenn Urquhart – 23/18/59/+5
This crude analysis shows that Castle beats O’Donnell handily. O’Donnell’s name recognition is still low so she definitely has room to move up however her favorables are low. The Rollins/Urquhart is a toss-up with a slight lean towards Urquhart. Both Rollins and Urquhart are both largely unknown so this race is quite fluid.
PPP also broke down the numbers by self-reported ideology. Republicans in Delaware would probably label themselves as either “moderate” or “conservative” (I realize that there’s a lot of overlap of moderates with both Independents and Democrats).
Conservatives Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable
Mike Castle – 46/39/15/+7
Christine O’Donnell – 37/23/40/+14
Michele Rollins – 21/19/59/+2
Glenn Urquhart – 25/14/61/+9
O’Donnell has her best showing among conservatives but still trails Castle. Despite rumors to the contrary, Castle is popular among conservatives. Urquhart has a clear advantage with conservatives over Rollins.
What about moderates?
Moderates Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable
Mike Castle – 56/25/18/+31
Christine O’Donnell – 15/38/47/-23
Michele Rollins – 16/27/57/-9
Glenn Urquhart – 12/21/67/-9
Castle is beloved by self-reported moderates. All other Republican candidates are in negative territory, which shows why Republicans have trouble winning in Delaware. Despite having the News Journal declare her a moderate, Rollins is clearly not catching on. She has the same rating with mderates as Glenn Urquhart. I assume Urquhart’s negatives will go up with moderates once they watch Urquhart’s Nazi comments.
One last analysis – how do the Republican candidates rate among Republicans?
Republicans Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable
Mike Castle – 60/25/16/+35
Christine O’Donnell – 34/29/37/+5
Michele Rollins – 27/17/57/+10
Glenn Urquhart – 23/17/59/+6
Castle is popular with Republicans no matter which way you look at the numbers. O’Donnell has an uphill climb. Rollins finally comes out ahead of Urquhart in this match-up so I call their race a toss-up as of now.
What advice do you give each of these candidates? My advice:
Castle – Ignore O’Donnell, keep doing what you’re doing
O’Donnell – Go relentlessly negative to drive down Castle’s numbers. Be sure to get your base support of conservatives out to vote. If you have money, now would be a good time to spend it.
Rollins – Quit sitting on your load of cash and start spending some, otherwise you could lose to Urquhart. Since Urquhart is probably the conservatives’ candidate you have nothing to lose by moving to the left and appealing to moderates. Try to link yourself to Castle more aggressively.
Urquhart – Spend money to raise your name recognition & profile & make sure conservatives come to vote in the primaries
Tags: Christine O'Donnell, DE-AL, DE-Sen, Delaware Republicans, Glenn Urquhart, Michele Rollins, Mike Castle, PPP Poll, Primaries
I’m so angry with DE tbagz. They are morons who put up the weakest possible candidate against Castle. Maybe the second weakest, Rose Izzo being the weakest.
Yes, I think these numbers show that O’Donnell is quite weak. She’s weaker than expected with even her base of support. I have no doubt it’s because of her money issues.
As far as weak candidates go, Republicans have so few on their bench it’s hard to find a strong one. You know, Bonini should have tried for U.S. Senate but he wants to preserve his career I guess.
My question is what Rollins will do. She still struggles with very low name recognition and she clearly has not differentiated herself from generic Republican.
Rollins stayed behind the scenes in GOP for years, largely because she didn’t savor the rough and tumble of campaigning. She entered this race because she thought the nomination would come easily and the path to victory in November would be smooth in a Republican year.
Whether she was surprised by what has happened, or just plain wrong, she still hasn’t adjusted to the reality.
she didn’t savor the rough and tumble of campaigning
Yeah, we can tell.
I actually saw a car the other day with both Castle and Urquhart stickers on the bumper, and this was in the Greenville-Centreville area. Doesn’t mean a lot, I realize, but it has to fuel Michelle’s nightmares.
Geez, don’t think the bumper stickers would worry her much. Her car windows too tinted for her to take notice.
I’ve actually seen one Rollins sticker on a car. I haven’t spotted any Urquhart stickers yet.
If these poll results aren’t a wake-up call for Rollins then her campaign is pretty hopeless.
Urquhart is huge down in Kent & Sussex, judging by the signs in peoples’ yards.
Rollins signs are mostly stuck in empty lots and in front of homes for sale.
I have seen a few O’Donnell signs, mostly next to the Urquhart ones, but not a single one for Castle anywhere from Dover to Dagsboro.
Did see my first Coons sign the other day, in Harbeson on Route 9. Right next to a Korn sign – also a first. They’re next to each other, just down the road from a ginormous Urquhart sign in someone’s front yard.
I didn’t break the numbers down by county but the PPP Poll does have them listed that way.
Rollins is toast and she will use all her money to dump on Urquhart making Carney a possible easy win. The real loser is Rakestraw, Ross and the party grip by Greenville. Guys like Wedo lurching in the shadows for 2012 and beyond are now no longer a factor.
The GOP will have two possible contenders, Copeland and Protack if they want to but I am guessing no. Kovachs is going down and Lavelle might be reapportioned into another less friendly district.
The GOP is on life support.
Rollins only has $4,800 of her own money in the campaign, she RAISED OVER a half million from donors in ONE QUARTER. Urquhart on the other hand, could only raise $123,000 from donors in TWO QUARTERS.
But not even Urquhart’s fortune will counteract his Nazi video.
And Protack has never been, and never will be a “contender.” Have the mysterious smear mailings about his primary opponent started showing up yet?
Whenever the word “truth” shows up in a screen name, you know propaganda isn’t far behind. IN this case it’s the usual Protackian anti-establishment screeching.
Word to Protack and friends: If you want to take over the party, learn to 1) raise a lot of money and 2) get along with people so they like you. If you can’t do these things, you can’t succeed in politics, and sounding strident and pedantic doesn’t accomplish either one. After pissing up a rope for 10 years, you’d think someone would learn these simple, basic truths about politics.
And if the Chip Flowers supporters are still reading this blog, they’ll take the hint.