Mike Castle Throws A Wrench In The Senate Race
Ugh. Don’t do it Mike!
Describing himself as “hurt and stunned” by his Senate primary defeat to Christine O’Donnell more than a week ago, Rep. Mike Castle said Wednesday he isn’t ruling out the possibility of a write-in campaign
The Delaware Republican said he “probably” would not run, but has not ruled it out “simply because it’s there, simply because I’ve had a number of people who’ve asked that I do that,” he told reporters outside the House floor following votes.
…
Castle would have to declare his candidacy by Sept. 30 at 4:30 p.m. in writing at the state Election Office for his votes to be counted.
“I will consider it right up until the final moment but I’m not headed in that direction right now,” he said.
Apparently he’s still struggling with his loss, but is still playing the good Republican soldier.
Though he’s “very unhappy” with things that happened during the campaign, he said he doesn’t want to necessarily interfere with Republicans chance in it.
Castle reiterated that he would not endorse either of the candidates and said he isn’t interested in “damaging her [O’Donnell] at this point” or going out of his way to be negative.
Asked whether a write-in campaign could be perceived as vindictive, he responded, “Sure. It could be.”
I’m sure there’s been an outpouring of love for Mike Castle. He was defeated in the most underhanded and slimy way. He can’t win as a write-in, though. He’ll get back those 15% of Republicans supporting Coons and perhaps some Democrats but Republicans will fall mostly in line and vote for O’Donnell. Especially if Rush, Hannity and the rest of the gang go in for O’Donnell. All a likely write-in could do is possibly throw the race to O’Donnell. In the two races this year where the Republican is running as an independent, Florida and Alaska, so far all their candidacy has done is thrown the race probably to the Republican.
Quick history question: who is the only person ever to win a U.S. Senate seat as a write-in candidate?
P.S. Be sure to click on the NJ link and vote in their poll about whether Castle should run as a write-in. The answer is “no.”
Tags: DE-Sen, Mike Castle
If Mike runs, Christine gets elected.
Just when you think the guy could not be a bigger fucking douche.
I believe the only person to win as a write in was Strom Thurman.
Correct JG! Strom Thurmond in 1954 won as a write-in opposed to desegregation.
Be sure to vote “no” in the NJ poll. I have no idea if Castle will look at this poll. I’ll bet he does some private polling to see if he has a chance. You have to remember, voting for a write-in is a lot of extra work.
“If Mike runs, Christine gets elected.”
i doubt that. most dems will go Coons. Some I’s will write him in, but my-and-large more people want feces as their senator than those who will vote for O’donnell. I think if anything, Castle will take a few R votes away fron Coons, who wont miss them.
Last night at Coons HQ in newark (was anyone else there from 430ish-630ish?) some of the staffers were working the phones building the “republicans for chris” movement. seemsed to have legs.
now dd, that is not to say we shouldn’t advance the notion that a vote for castle is a vote for satanic celibate witchcraft.
I am a R for Coon’s. Though I am a strong supporter of Coons. I can tell you that writing in Castle would be a tough thing, I would want to do it.
The one reason that would cause me to balk at writing in Castle is that I don’t think he would win. If anything he would be a spoiler for Coons. Which I doubt is his intent, and I bet that is why he is not just going for it.
I think everyone in Delaware does not want the crazy in office.
Even though Castle is strong, I don’t think as a Republican he can win without full backing from Repubicans. That is just the reality of a Republican winning in a Blue state. He needs the I’s, a few D’s, and all of the R’s.
the question we should be asking…. how will we deal with the insane and possibly violent backlash from the COD supporters when they lose the election? We know the Trards dont accept election results where they lose.
if anything, Castle will take a few R votes away fron Coons, who wont miss them.
Castle would take D and I votes that will be greatly missed. Especially if he actually campaigns. He’s got some money to spend, remember.
I would love for them to react violently, for it means we could put an end to them by force, just like George Washington did during the Whiskey Rebellion.
dd…invoking the LiberalGeek rule here, edit until nobody is dead.
Not anxious to hand these jokers any martyrs. The NRA types are still itching for another Ruby Ridge.
MANY R’s are voting for Coons- including some who voted for O’Donnell in the primary without realizing how crazy she is.
He’s not only “hurt and stunned”, he’s DAZED AND CONFUSED! He’s like the old boxing champ that’s finally had the shit beat out of him by a young challenger. Fading from the limelight without much to look forward to but the rocking chair. He wants to give it one more shot. He thinks he still has it in him. He thinks he’s Strom Thurmond, BUT HE’S NOT.
More like sucker-punched Delbert. If you want to see a real political beat down, watch Coons vs. O’Donnell Nov 2nd.
Do you have any doubt that Christine would still run, had she lost the primary ?
Wasnt Christine a write in candidate in the past? Castle wont get enough votes as a writein to win. He will take votes from Christine. Delaware is still a blue state, so I believe it helps Coons if Castle is a write in. Lisa Murkowski is doing the same thing in Alaska! Not a winner.
I think that Castle running a write in vote would ultimately help Coons (imho). The crazy people who voted for Christine in the primary still don’t know what a crazy whackjob she is. I was talking to a friend the other day telling them some of the things she has done and lied about, and being a person who doesn’t pay attention to politics, my friend had no idea about Christine.
There are many Republicans who do know the real Christine and just can’t bring themselves to vote for her. The only reason she won the primary, was because her voters were fired up to come out and vote (cap and trade, and pro-life.} Castle’s voters (imho) just assumed he would win and weren’t fired up to come out to vote.
If Mike runs as a write-in, Coons wins easily. Most Coons voters are going to vote for Coons regardless. Castle siphons off more voters for O’Donnnell than Coons.
But, while Castle is playing Hamlet right now, he will ultimately decide not to run as a write-in.
If I were O’Donnell, though, I would be reaching out not to the 53% who already voted for me once, but the 47% who voted against me. She needs every one of those voters (and more) if she is to have any hope of beating Coons.
Now that I think about it, I think the numbers for Castle are daunting. In recent polls against Castle, Coons got 37-38% to Castle’s 55%. I think it’s safe to call that Coons’s base numbers. That leaves 63% to split between O’Donnell and Castle. Probably 1-2% of that would go to 3rd party candidates. O’Donnell was polling 39-42% against Coons but it’s more her ceiling than her floor. Castle would need to capture more than 61% of the remaining vote to win. I don’t have the breakdown of Delaware voters at the top of my head – but O’Donnell captured 55% of Republicans. Would 45% of Republicans + most indies be enough?
IMO, this is why Obama called Castle right after he lost to crazy witch. I’m sure he pointed out that he could find a place for him in DC.
And why not? Castle is one of the better politicians out there, especially compared to the other Repubs out there.
I’m just afraid not enough voters know how to write.
I think Castle may be looking for redemption. He’ll probably run the numbers and see that he won’t be able to get it.
Wasn’t Christine endorsed by the Constitution Party, but then they couldn’t get enough registered voters to show up on the ballot? She clearly did that when she thought she was going to lose the GOP primary and still wanted to be on the ballot.
Plslouise, O’Donnell was a write-in in 2006 and got something like 4% of the vote. She most likely would’ve done it again this November if she had lost the primary since the Constitution Party wasn’t on the ballot.
Although I’d rather see Castle endorse Coons and swing a few thousand R votes his way, it’d be pretty funny to see Castle run a write-in campaign and then start asking all the devout Castle supporters (especially Tom Ross) their thoughts. Ross’ head would probably explode — go with the guy he threw everything behind in the primary or stick with the endorsed candidate who “couldn’t get elected dogcatcher.”
The GOP Civil War that could create would make what’s going on now look like a playground scrap.
Note that Castle didn’t endorse anybody yet. If he decides to run, it is probably because he thinks he can win.
But if Castle wants to take sides, a straight endorsement and campaign support would probably work far better than a write-in candidacy.
I am now wondering what is the point of playing Hamlet? Maybe it will keep donors away from COD?
UI,
I don’t question your numbers, but I would not underestimate the nutjobs. I think Coons has more to lose from Castle than O’Donnel.
I mean they are Birthers,if anything they are empowered by the legit questions about O’donnel.
So that leaves Coons and Castle to go after the sane vote. And I believe Coons will not lose any of the base you outlined, it still is a risk that Castle kills Coons superior advantage over O’Clown and gives the nutjobs a chance. One they did not have.
I think I wonder how many of those people who wanted to vote in the Primary were moderates and not nutjobs. I know O’Donnell sneaked in her filing so most indies and regular voters could not get their registration together for the primay cutoff.
I guess I agree. I don’t see where Castle wins, and if anything I think he gives O’Donnell a better footing against Coons. Though I don’t think Coons would lose, but she might actually spend her money for ads.
Which reminds me. Downstate I am seeing O’Donnell ads, but not paid by her. Just noticed them today.
I agree a Castle write-in could certainly make the race close. If O’Donnell’s 39-42 right now is her hardcore support than she could certainly win. However, polls have shown her support is quite a bit softer than Coons’s support.
Maybe the GOP civil war figures in Castle’s thinking. Can it be that he needs to create one last redoubt for Greenville?
Regardless if Castle runs as a ‘write-in’ candidate or not – Coons will prevail. I can hear COD whinning now about how wrong and unfair it is for MC to do this…She did it to Jan Ting in 2006! She’s a hypocrite. I would never vote for either Coons or O’Donnell. I would vote for Mike Castle, however.
UI,
I would not underestimate her support levels. Right now the National Tea Party has written this race off. I think if they see a 3-way race, they would probably focus efforts and resources back into Delaware. With them and fox in the mix.
Her voters have proven they will show up. And that is really what gives her an edge in a 3-way. Unfortunately both Coons and Castle have actualy served the state, what were they thinking. And she would get any protest vote against Washington.
Plus Coons would really be in a tough spot financially. So would Castle.
I just do not underestimate the kooks in this state anymore.
I could have lived with Mike Castle as Senator although I would not have liked it. Christine O’Donnell would be intolerable, a disaster for Delaware and the nation. I’m going to volunteer for the Dems this year, something I’ve never done. I take comfort knowing the more O’Donnell speaks the more people realize what a maniac is on the loose.
I don’t think he’ll run because he saw what happened to Murkowski this week when she decided to do a write-in. She lost her party leadership position and prestigious committee roles. As in Alaska, the national GOP organizations aren’t enamored with their nominee in Delaware but they have pledged to support their nominee in both states, and thus the result will be the same.
Also, does he really want to fight like hell to get a near bottom of the ladder seniority position in the Senate?
I don’t think Castle’s heart has really been in this race all along and I don’t understand why he’s running. I imagine his ego is still bruised and perhaps he thinks he can get some kind of redemption if he runs and wins. I imagine his party leadership doesn’t want him to run but I think situation is different since O’Donnell looks like a sure loser against Coons but the situation isn’t so clear for a 3-way race.
And just on a technical level, have any of you ever tried to write in a candidate on the Delaware voting machines? I studied the guide the state put online, and I’ve seen the machines in person… it looks extremely tricky to write in a candidate in the little window on the machine. It’s not going to be anything like Strom Thurmond’s campaign where he had newspapers in South Carolina endorsing him on the front page next to detailed articles on how to write in a candidates name on the paper ballot. The News Journal likes them some Mike Castle, but even they wouldn’t do that, I don’t think.
At some point though, if we want a more moderate Republican party, one of these more centrist campaigns needs to win. It’s somewhat fascinating that there’s a possibility of 3 such races this year.
Yeah, I’d think you’d have to take at least 5% off of Castle’s vote due to the difficulty of doing a write-in. However, the rules are more lenient than in Alaska.
I’m with Jason at #2. He’s going down the way he went up — incapable of either shitting or getting off the pot.
UI: You can take away an enormous amount of Castle’s support off the table for a write-in — all those people who pushed the button next to his name because they recognized it. He would get perhaps 10%, the population of committed upstate moderate REpublicans. But it could be enough to elect O’Donnell, which is the deal with the devil Truthful Tom Ross has made to keep his job.
I think the person who will be most unprepared for an O’Donnell with is COD herself. She is clearly running this campaign as a money making scheme.
If she wins, she will have to do something she seems to have never done in her life, and that is show up to work.
If i didnt firmly believe that her winning would jeopardize the future of the nation, i would totally vote for her (think a Dem 10 seat advantage that was safe).
She would have to DO something. Also I am quite certain she can, and would be bribed. Her actions as a senator could land her in jail… and THAT, my friends would close the door on teaparty candidates in Delaware forever.
However, the country is at risk… and that isnt snark, or some reference to the Dark Lord taking power through his devout priestess… If the Tea Party takes the congress, we are in for EXTREME right wing new laws with names like the “veto me if you are a secret Muslim act” that eliminates tax cuts and regulations on everything, bans homosexuality, and adds “in Jesus name we pray” to the constitution.
that is the teabag utopia, that is why we must vote.
UI wrote: “I don’t think Castle’s heart has really been in this race all along and I don’t understand why he’s running.”
Sob … sob … well … for starters … he’s NOT. Not yet, anyway.
All Castle is doing is blackmailing for some kind of a backroom deal. A job, an apology, or both and likely more. It just shows you what 44 years of entitlement produces in a feeder-at-the-trough. He’s been beat, he’s over 70 years old and has been in office since Johnson was Predident; and the bum still wants more. And he’ll end up getting it too. But he won’t be Senator, not with $2.3 million and counting behind Ms. O’Donnell.
Just realized all the “Castle For Senate” signs are still up.
Hmmm, would the Delaware GOP attack Mike Castle as the ‘spoiler”?
I know I would use GOP to tear him a new one, that is what GOP leaders do, attack and rip people up.
There should be one more option on the poll. “It would be a clusterfuck, the outcome of which is impossible to predict.”
Yes the Mike Castle signs are still up. Internal polling will show that it will be a tight race for MC as a write in with Tea Party contributions as a major random variable. Once upon a time MC was leading COD 60-40. Then the money bomb of lies hit, and MC was a gay Obama liberal. Add Hannity, Limbaugh and Palin to the combustion and MC got roasted.
Right now, a battery of Tea Party artillery is dropping spotting rounds on CC. So far it’s: “The bearded marxist who won’t debate COD.”
Six more weeks in the trenches, dodging the incoming lies, and BS. Once the tea party sees what sticks to CC, they’ll launch a lot more. Maybe even 2 million dollars worth of Dresden firebombing. (or maybe not).
CC is a supporter of Obama, as far as I can tell. So the Hannity, Palin et. al. shots are to be expected for the duration. You will be able to Judge CC’s success in defense by how much more bizarre the lies become as the election approaches.
So what’s MC to do? It was clearly demonstrated that there is no statewide GOP GOTV emanating from Greenville. Sussex has it to spare. I do not underestimate COD’s people, I think they did what they were told to by the faux news crowd, they got out and voted for COD, to stop the Obama loving RINO. I can’t begin to fathom how many there are among the I’s.
MC Best Case Scenario: CC 33 COD 33 MC 33. margin of error +-3.14159.
I want to believe MC is a wise man who will walk away to fight a different battle, using his surplus campaign funds to work for that which he truly believes in. Untethered from the GOP machine, he can be more effective in lobbying for things like stem cell research.
Has Coons ducked a debate? I didn’t hear anything about that. Of course it doesn’t need to be true for O’Donnell to say it.
Castle is a practical guy so he’s keeping his options open. If he figures there’s even a 5% chance O’Donnell will implode or get indicted before Sept 30th, why not wait that long and see what happens.
I’m still of the belief that Bill Maher has the goods on her anyway.
Castle isn’t going to run a write-in campaign. It’s beneath him and he knows it, but he has a difficult time making decisions.
Coons didn’t duck a debate, he just refused to go to the 9/12 Patriot’s public teabagging the other night, where O’Whack-a-Mole ranted about the Car Czar, etc, being unconstitutional because it’s a title of nobility. Why waste your time with a group that isn’t going to listen or believe anything you say?
If he figures there’s even a 5% chance O’Donnell will implode or get indicted before Sept 30th
Best answer yet.
Blue is pot on with the media stuff. I hope Coons is ready.
He’s not going to do a write-in, people are just bored and want something to talk about. No chance.
Duh, O”donnell has attacked Castle a bunch and now she will hit Coons. Castle has $1 million plus to run and he can’t go any lower given O’Donnell’s attacks.
I think he should run, go for it. He wins, he can be free at last.