OK, time to take a look at how the legislative landscape in competitive races has changed since ‘I’m You’ defeated Mikey Man-Pants.
In general, I think that R turnout in northern NCC areas will be down, and the crazies will be out in force below the Canal. This does not necessarily change the dynamic as much as one might think b/c (a) it’s possible, just possible that R’s will turn out in Greenville and Brandywine Hundred primarily for the down-ballot races, although that turns most electoral experience on its head; and (b) the ‘Christine’ factor is so focused on one person that there could well be significant down-ballot deterioration in her lower Delaware strongholds.
Here are the races that have moved the most, IMHO:
1. RD 32: Brad Bennett vs. Beth Miller-If only Brad Bennett had kept his ‘man-pants’ on, he’d likely have won easy reelection. As it is, stick a fork in him, he’s done. What kind of idiot would cheat on his wife (who just happens to be the daughter of the State Senator in the district) with someone in Leg Hall, where stuff like that never escapes notice? An idiot like Brad Bennett, whose sense of entitlement clearly knows no bounds. Welcome to the General Assembly, Rep. Miller.
2. RD 33: Bob Walls vs. Harold Peterman-Walls is a well-liked gentleman and as low-key as a legislator can get. He has squeaked by in two consecutive races, both of which enjoyed strong D turnouts. His margin is so thin, and this is primo Christine Country. Hard to see how he earns a numbers-driven win this time. He’d have been much better off w/ Castle & Rollins at the top.
3. RD 6: Tom Kovach vs. Debra Heffernan-Kovach won a low turnout Special Election on merit, a well-focused campaign that effectively turned out his base. However, this is a solid D district, and it’s one where R turnout in Kovach’s stronghold areas along Shipley Road are likely to be hurt by the top of the ticket. Equally importantly, word from the field is that Heffernan is really connecting at the doors. As the previous leader of the Brandywine School District, she knows the schools inside and out, and conversations at the door turn to things like specific teachers and all kinds of things that Heffernan and the constituents share on a personal level. That’s gold right there. I now think she’s the slight favorite. She is, however, at a huge $$ disadvantage as Kovach is raking in the special interest bucks as well as the ill-gotten gains from the Billionaires on the Hill. It’s time for D’s with safe races to let the moths fly out of their wallets, and here’s a race where they could make a real difference. Worth some of your shekels as well, if you’ve got ’em.
4. RD 31: Darryl Scott vs. Ron Smith-The Christine Factor is the major imponderable. Otherwise, it’s difficult to see how career Rethug aparatchik Smith beats Scott. Still, Darryl Scott is about as good a progressive as you can get from Kent County, he’s got a serious race on his hands, and he deserves your support.
5. RD 10: Dennis E. Williams vs. Robert Rhodunda-I still make Williams the slight underdog. However, he may have been helped more than anyone by the meltdown of the Billionaires on the Hill wing of the Republican Party, as his district stretches from Claymont to Greenville. Markell is strongly supporting him. In addition, Rhodunda is not exactly Bidenesque as a campaigner, which puts him on a par with Williams. Voter turnout will decide this election, and the ED’s in the eastern (Claymont) portion of the district turn out notoriously poorly in the off-years. But Williams now has better than a fighting chance to win. He’ll need $$’s though, as Rhodunda has tapped the usual suspects.
6. RD 36: Russell McCabe vs. Harvey Kenton-Reallyreallyreally hope I’m wrong on this one. Since I am often wrong, especially when it comes to Sussex County, I very well could be. I just think the landscape in what has been a toss-up race has likely tilted in Kenton’s favor with the teabaggers’ ascension this cycle. I know Russ McCabe and know that he would immediately become a top-tier legislator if elected. Again, your $$’s could make a difference.
7. RD 37: Ruth Briggs King vs. Frank Shade-What otherwise might be a competitive race became more of a longshot w/the teabaggers’ win. Shade’s best chance might now be to tie King to her chief supporter, Sen. Joe Booth, whose deal at Sussex Tech stinks even more than the chickenshit in Sussex County. Hell, were I a D in Sussex County in any district, I’d be doing that. Just like Jim Westhoff has.
8. RD 11: Greg Lavelle vs. Joshua Schoenberg-My sleeper race of the season. Here’s why Lavelle’s vulnerable. A ‘name on the ballot’ got 42% last time. The registration numbers have only gotten worse for Lavelle since 2008. His R base, primarily west of Concord Pike, was Castle/Rollins country. He’s gonna have a tough time mobilizing his base. The Schoenberg name is beloved in the Jewish community, as the Schoenberg Funeral Home represents as caring and considerate group of people as you can find anywhere. As previously reported, Schoenberg has already raised impressive enough funds to wage an effective campaign, and you can bet more are coming in. Lavelle, of course, is sitting on $75K, most of which he no doubt had hoped to expend on other races to help realize his dream to be Speaker. Sometimes, getting a late start can be a plus. Especially if your opponent is totally unprepared for it. A race where Schoenberg could actually peak on Election Day and win an improbable victory. Make the Monsignor’s life miserable: donate to Schoenberg today.
A couple of other notes. I still see nothing to dissuade me from my belief that both the 9th (Cathcart retiring) and 24th (Oberle retiring) RD’s will flip to the D column rather handily. Unless Rebecca Walker doesn’t campaign which, based on the last two go-’rounds, is always possible.
The Bilionaires on the Hill have raised quite a tidy sum for preppy boy Rick Carroll in his race against the profoundly-undistinguished Gerald Brady. Won’t make a difference, guess their money needs to go somewhere just as long as it’s not to the government.
One final note: Jim Westhoff is a progressive candidate who deserves to be cultivated. I’m not optimistic about his chances this year in the heart of Teabag Country, but he’s shown me more than enough to think that he’s someone who could run on a bigger stage, and who progressives like me would want to see on a bigger stage. It takes true guts and integrity (the most overused word in politics) to run as an unapologetic progressive in Jesusland. Pointless Aside: The more a candidate uses the word ‘integrity’ in conjunction with themselves, the more likely that the word is a synonym for the term, ‘no integrity’.
Also, let me make this clear: I’m not in every district, nor do I have irrefutable info from the districts I’ve covered today and/or any others. Be DL’s eyes and ears and let us know what you’re seeing out there, favorable, unfavorable, or indifferent.