“The Lower 41”: Post Man-Pants Edition
OK, time to take a look at how the legislative landscape in competitive races has changed since ‘I’m You’ defeated Mikey Man-Pants.
In general, I think that R turnout in northern NCC areas will be down, and the crazies will be out in force below the Canal. This does not necessarily change the dynamic as much as one might think b/c (a) it’s possible, just possible that R’s will turn out in Greenville and Brandywine Hundred primarily for the down-ballot races, although that turns most electoral experience on its head; and (b) the ‘Christine’ factor is so focused on one person that there could well be significant down-ballot deterioration in her lower Delaware strongholds.
Here are the races that have moved the most, IMHO:
1. RD 32: Brad Bennett vs. Beth Miller-If only Brad Bennett had kept his ‘man-pants’ on, he’d likely have won easy reelection. As it is, stick a fork in him, he’s done. What kind of idiot would cheat on his wife (who just happens to be the daughter of the State Senator in the district) with someone in Leg Hall, where stuff like that never escapes notice? An idiot like Brad Bennett, whose sense of entitlement clearly knows no bounds. Welcome to the General Assembly, Rep. Miller.
2. RD 33: Bob Walls vs. Harold Peterman-Walls is a well-liked gentleman and as low-key as a legislator can get. He has squeaked by in two consecutive races, both of which enjoyed strong D turnouts. His margin is so thin, and this is primo Christine Country. Hard to see how he earns a numbers-driven win this time. He’d have been much better off w/ Castle & Rollins at the top.
3. RD 6: Tom Kovach vs. Debra Heffernan-Kovach won a low turnout Special Election on merit, a well-focused campaign that effectively turned out his base. However, this is a solid D district, and it’s one where R turnout in Kovach’s stronghold areas along Shipley Road are likely to be hurt by the top of the ticket. Equally importantly, word from the field is that Heffernan is really connecting at the doors. As the previous leader of the Brandywine School District, she knows the schools inside and out, and conversations at the door turn to things like specific teachers and all kinds of things that Heffernan and the constituents share on a personal level. That’s gold right there. I now think she’s the slight favorite. She is, however, at a huge $$ disadvantage as Kovach is raking in the special interest bucks as well as the ill-gotten gains from the Billionaires on the Hill. It’s time for D’s with safe races to let the moths fly out of their wallets, and here’s a race where they could make a real difference. Worth some of your shekels as well, if you’ve got ’em.
4. RD 31: Darryl Scott vs. Ron Smith-The Christine Factor is the major imponderable. Otherwise, it’s difficult to see how career Rethug aparatchik Smith beats Scott. Still, Darryl Scott is about as good a progressive as you can get from Kent County, he’s got a serious race on his hands, and he deserves your support.
5. RD 10: Dennis E. Williams vs. Robert Rhodunda-I still make Williams the slight underdog. However, he may have been helped more than anyone by the meltdown of the Billionaires on the Hill wing of the Republican Party, as his district stretches from Claymont to Greenville. Markell is strongly supporting him. In addition, Rhodunda is not exactly Bidenesque as a campaigner, which puts him on a par with Williams. Voter turnout will decide this election, and the ED’s in the eastern (Claymont) portion of the district turn out notoriously poorly in the off-years. But Williams now has better than a fighting chance to win. He’ll need $$’s though, as Rhodunda has tapped the usual suspects.
6. RD 36: Russell McCabe vs. Harvey Kenton-Reallyreallyreally hope I’m wrong on this one. Since I am often wrong, especially when it comes to Sussex County, I very well could be. I just think the landscape in what has been a toss-up race has likely tilted in Kenton’s favor with the teabaggers’ ascension this cycle. I know Russ McCabe and know that he would immediately become a top-tier legislator if elected. Again, your $$’s could make a difference.
7. RD 37: Ruth Briggs King vs. Frank Shade-What otherwise might be a competitive race became more of a longshot w/the teabaggers’ win. Shade’s best chance might now be to tie King to her chief supporter, Sen. Joe Booth, whose deal at Sussex Tech stinks even more than the chickenshit in Sussex County. Hell, were I a D in Sussex County in any district, I’d be doing that. Just like Jim Westhoff has.
8. RD 11: Greg Lavelle vs. Joshua Schoenberg-My sleeper race of the season. Here’s why Lavelle’s vulnerable. A ‘name on the ballot’ got 42% last time. The registration numbers have only gotten worse for Lavelle since 2008. His R base, primarily west of Concord Pike, was Castle/Rollins country. He’s gonna have a tough time mobilizing his base. The Schoenberg name is beloved in the Jewish community, as the Schoenberg Funeral Home represents as caring and considerate group of people as you can find anywhere. As previously reported, Schoenberg has already raised impressive enough funds to wage an effective campaign, and you can bet more are coming in. Lavelle, of course, is sitting on $75K, most of which he no doubt had hoped to expend on other races to help realize his dream to be Speaker. Sometimes, getting a late start can be a plus. Especially if your opponent is totally unprepared for it. A race where Schoenberg could actually peak on Election Day and win an improbable victory. Make the Monsignor’s life miserable: donate to Schoenberg today.
A couple of other notes. I still see nothing to dissuade me from my belief that both the 9th (Cathcart retiring) and 24th (Oberle retiring) RD’s will flip to the D column rather handily. Unless Rebecca Walker doesn’t campaign which, based on the last two go-’rounds, is always possible.
The Bilionaires on the Hill have raised quite a tidy sum for preppy boy Rick Carroll in his race against the profoundly-undistinguished Gerald Brady. Won’t make a difference, guess their money needs to go somewhere just as long as it’s not to the government.
One final note: Jim Westhoff is a progressive candidate who deserves to be cultivated. I’m not optimistic about his chances this year in the heart of Teabag Country, but he’s shown me more than enough to think that he’s someone who could run on a bigger stage, and who progressives like me would want to see on a bigger stage. It takes true guts and integrity (the most overused word in politics) to run as an unapologetic progressive in Jesusland. Pointless Aside: The more a candidate uses the word ‘integrity’ in conjunction with themselves, the more likely that the word is a synonym for the term, ‘no integrity’.
Also, let me make this clear: I’m not in every district, nor do I have irrefutable info from the districts I’ve covered today and/or any others. Be DL’s eyes and ears and let us know what you’re seeing out there, favorable, unfavorable, or indifferent.
In the 24th I’ve seen the first signs of life from the Abe Jones campaign. There’s some signs up now. I haven’t had a contact since the pre-primary mailer.
Ruh-roh, doesn’t look like Abe has filed his campaign finance report yet. Rarely a good sign…
Got to disagree with you on the 36th, ES. Kenton has been absent from the campaign trail and McCabe has been everywhere. Plus he’s very well known in the district. This is a district where the people vote for the person and not the party. McCabe with 52% of the vote.
That’s the kind of disagreement I like, MJ. Hope you’re right, and you’re much more tuned into the doings in Sussex than me. Sometimes candidates lose even though they’ve run the superior campaign. Sure hope that Russ can offset the surge of Crazy Christines down there.
I don’t see a filing for Terry Spence. Would love to know who is actually giving him money this time around.
My guess is: Hardly anybody. Was impressed w/Barbieri’s finances. Don’t think Spence even comes close this time.
I agree with MJ. Russ McCabe has been everywhere and worked hard.Last Weds. Night at American Legion”Meet the Candidates” He was going to be late so he had a letter read .When he arrived chairwomen still let him speak and creased his way up to front .That dosent happen unless the “powers that Be” know you and like you .Only John Adkins is more liked and favored in that area. Hastings is going down big time to Adkins.
I agreee with capesdelaware – I was there too and saw that -but the moderator of that “meet the candidates” was way loosey-goosey…
Doug Campbell and Brent Wangen both looked like idiots – Jeff Christopher is the Read debacle all over again – comes off well but…its all fluff – his is beinf “handeled” and that
Westhoff is worth watching……definately
also like your take on the Shade/King issue – Booth is being attacked handily by his own folks – he’s pretty popular with the people – but the Sussex Tech stunt has every one up in arms – especially in this economy…
what do you think about Van Houten v Longhurst?? especially since his padding on his militray service became an issue
Finally I cannot wait to sing….”where did all the tea bagz go, long time passing
when will this Tea Bagz crap end – Im so sick of it
Don’t see the Longhurst race as competitive. Numbers are too daunting (much better than 2-1 D), and nowhere near enough people know what a self-centered prima donna that Longhurst is, nor know of her nasty streak.
I DO think her leadership position is in jeopardy, but not her election prospects.
El Som, I’m so glad you see Longhurst the way I do. Now that’s a real witch this cycle.
oh there is another Witch in this cycle – Ruth Brigg-King – talk about classless and nasty…….
Thanks for mention, El Som.
Here’s a quick update to my DL friends —
I think we’ve had a great week. The editorial about Joe Booth ran in just about every paper, except the News Journal, there were a lot of checks in my mailbox, and most importantly, when I knock on people’s doors, people already know who I am.
At the Apple Scrapple this past weekend, people already knew who I was, and wanted to meet me. One lady had her husband take a picture of she and I. She said she wanted a picture so that she could prove she knew me, when I was just running for State Rep.
Of course, about ten minutes later, a guy called me a “Demon-crat.”
Other than that, I’ve no idea how we’re doing. All I know is that we will keep speaking from the heart, stepping on toes, keep pushing, keep calling, and keep knocking on doors.
Either way, we’re celebrating on November 3rd.
Thank you once again for all of the help and for the encouragement. Your words help more than you know.
Jim
Jim – you knocked it out of the ball park at the Am Vets – good job!! keep on trucking!!! and good Luck
Go Jim Westhoff, go Jim Westhoff, go Jim Westhoff. GO!
Go Jim Westhoff.Go!
Sorry about that lat link. It should have been this
Mongo has been to a lot of candidate events and wants to share some stunning Mongo-type Insights.
Richard Korn needs to be a better speaker. Tom Wagner is a natural speaker, and really connects with people. Korn is a surprisingly poor public speaker. Mongo thought that lawyers were good at that speaking stuff. Korn can fix this with some work. Ask for some help, Richard.
Chip Flowers is getting much better. He makes a great case for why he is the better choice for treasurer, but Bonini still has much more charisma. Mongo likes Chip a lot.
Russ McCabe is a great guy, very likable. Mongo likes his chances, but thinks Russ needs to inject some passion into his stump speech. Mongo wants to hear why you are going to be a good representative. What are your ideas? And maybe, just maybe, consider getting a haircut. It’s just hair.
Frank Shade is a great person, who knows everybody and is a natural. RBK comes across as cold and distant. Frank could pull this one out, but he needs to take off the gloves and tell people that RBK just recently hung up her lobbying credentials, that she fights against every bill that might help the manufactured homeowner community, and that she is Booth’s supporter. Take off the gloves, Frank.
But what does Mongo know? Maybe Mongo just likes to watch a good fight.
Mongo is worried about COD. At Apple Scrapple, she was constantly surrounded by a scrum of 20 people. No other candidate generated that much interest. Certainly not Chris Coons, John Carney, or even Beau Biden. Mongo hopes the apathetic among us get out to vote. Maybe Mongo can offer rides to the polls on his ox.
Mongo
Mongo very astute….Aoine like Mongo
Poor Richard (Korn) doesn’t play well with his accent in Sussex – presents much better in NCC – his home turf
Russ is Charismatic and cute…but Mongo is right about the passion and the ideas deeper than talking points – mongo right – its just hair
Mongo right about the Witch in the 37th – Shade needs to STOP being a gentleman and the MHOA is the way to beat her – and correct again – just recently hung up the lobbying…the conservatives are bashing Korn for it – turn about is fair play.
Mongo likes apple/Scrapple? – that was a groomed appearance for CODfish-planted with many schills – its her home turf but her interest is more about her celebrity not her political substance – NCC doesn’t care about apple/scrapple
people ARE aurious about the “Witch of Delaware” or sould we just call her “the Jersey Devil?”
Mongo got good sense – come get me with your OX, any day
I met Deb Heffernan the other night when she was knocking on doors in my neighborhood. I found her very personable. Didn’t get too much into issues. She had a lot of pavement to pound and only a limited amount of time before the Phillies game started.
My limited dealings with Tom Kovach have been positive, but I haven’t run into him lately around the district. I have a few weeks left before I decide which button to push.
Mongo, Santamaria!
There’s one point I don’t think I’ve made strongly enough, and it comes from having been through one or two of these cycles, which don’t come around all that frequently.
Sometimes, when you combine a disparity in voter turnout/enthusiasm with a large number of close elections, one side or the other loses virtually all of the close ones. It happens b/c the down-ballot races often are almost completely decided by interest in the races at the top. Hence the term ‘statistical victory’. Rep. Bob Walls was the beneficiary of that the last two elections, and I fear he could be on the other side of the equation this time.
That’s why I’m less sanguine than others who are actually seeing the campaigns on the ground, especially in Sussex County. I hope I’m proven wrong.
Don’t forget about Sen. Sokola! His opponent Louis Saindon is an extremist teathug. He is a *huge* supporter of O’Donnell. He even appeared on stage with her at her unity rally. Is that the kind of person the 8th Senate District wants? The guy has no children but delights in taking shots at Red Clay School District and its hard working teachers at the door.
Dave Sokola is right there with Karen Peterson when it comes to truly progressive senators. He deserves any and all support that people who believe in open government and quality education can provide.
Another thing about Dave–he gets better and better as a Senator each year. I think it’s b/c he and Karen have a bit more influence in the caucus now that Thurman Adams and Jim Vaughn are gone. Fewer dyed-in-the-wool obstructionists.
Looks like Terry Spence finally got his filing in!
Wow this group is really drinking the Kool Aid.
Russ McCabe is a great candidate. He will lose.
Brad Bennett is a rotten candidate. He will lose.
Adkins needs to renounce Obama otherwise. He will lose.
Ditto with Scott in Dover.
Marino is not a good candidate. He will win.
The Dems need to pay attention to the 8th district The Republican Candidate is better than the incumbent.
Kate R. is kicking butt and the world is spinning on its head.
The idiot who believes that Lavelle can be beat needs to send me a case of whatever he is drinking/smoking.
LaVelle is totally safe.
Charlie Oberly donated to Greg Lavelle.
http://cfis.elections.delaware.gov/COE/cfishome.nsf/vwElectionData/LAVELLEG!-10-CAN-GEN-30DAY.pdf/$File/LAVELLEG!-10-CAN-GEN-30DAY.pdf?openelement
@ orestes – can I repost this prediction on Nov 3rd?? so we all can laugh??
please – don’t seek out fortune telling as a profession – you would starve
either that or its opposite day and no one told me…..