Random Political Musings-Oct. 20, 2010
*The quality of the Coons campaign is so much better than the Carney campaign that it’s shocking. On both sides. I never dreamed that Coons could run this kind of a grassroots effort. It is reflected in the number of signs, signs on peoples’ lawns, the activity of the candidate and the campaign, the mobilization of a huge group of volunteers, and especially in its attention to detail. Anyone who saw the cornucopia of carefully-arrayed Coons signs at the Widener debate knows what I’m talking about. Coons is running like he’s behind against someone he’s trouncing. Which is exactly what he should do.
By contrast, the Carney campaign is eerily and disconcertingly reminiscent of the uninspired effort that cost him the gubernatorial nomination in 2008. His campaign is running as if it’s a coronation, not a contest. I was quite surprised to see Urquhart within 9 points of Carney in the most recent poll that I’ve seen. Very few yard signs, most that are there are at union households, at least in Brandywine Hundred. John’s a nice guy who admittedly isn’t the most inspiring of politicians/public speakers. But, with the exception of one very good commercial, he has failed to convey any sense of urgency in getting people to vote for him. He is indeed fortunate that the Coons/O’Donnell race tops the ticket. It may be enough to pull him through, but not enough to create a feeling that his tenure in DC will be a long one.
*There is no reason whatsoever why Chip Flowers shouldn’t win the Treasurer’s race, especially since he’s in a political dead-heat with his opponent. Were I advising the campaign, I’d recommend two things: (1) Do whatever you can to bring Velda Jones-Potter into the fold. Even if it means promising her a plum job in the Treasurer’s office. After all, she’s already proven her competence. I think there are a significant number of disaffected Jones-Potter voters out there who are (IMHO) justifiably unhappy with the mud that was slung on her. You don’t want them ‘cutting’ you on Election Day. (2) Go full bore after Bonini. He really IS as lazy and disinterested as he’s been portrayed. It would be ideal if the campaign could identify Republican surrogates who would be willing to speak publicly. This can’t be done by the candidate, who must focus on his message and vision, but people have to know that Bonini is even worse than most generic R’s.
*Really impressed with Debra Heffernan’s signage, especially on people’s lawns, in the 6th RD. Even along Shipley Road, which should be Tom Kovach’s stronghold, she more than holds her own. I’d love to see Beau Biden campaign with her in the Claymont areas of the district east of Philadelphia Pike, it’d help. I think she’s gonna win if…she has enough $$’s to do so. This is a seat the D’s can win and hold.
*Which reminds me, I’d like to see more of Beau Biden on the campaign trail. He IS up for reelection after all, his signs are up, and there are campaign chits to be collected. My suggestions: Debi Heffernan, Mike Barbieri, Chris Counihan, Dennis E. Williams, and Darryl Scott. Those races would be boosted immeasurably by some ‘Biden’ campaign magic.
*Former (sort-of) Rethug congressional candidate Rose Izzo has my early vote for strangest array of campaign signs on a Delaware lawn. Pat Toomey, James Corbett and Brian Meehan, all of whom are R’s running for office in Pennsylvania, and…Bryon Short. I actually get the Short sign as Judy Travis no doubt wanted no part of endorsing Izzo for Congress. But the signs for PA rethugs? Well, I guess they’ve wrapped up the Holiday Hills Pennsylvania expatriate vote, thanks to Rose Izzo. Or maybe it’s for the Pa. guests who frequent her garage sales…
Probably the worst possible time for me to point this out, but with his support for the Bush tax cuts for the rich, Carney is a one-man enthusiasm gap. Even Carper is with the Dems on this (I think).
Agree, anon. I’m voting for John, but not with much enthusiasm, which is disappointing. I’m not expecting Paul Wellstone, just–something that shows me he’s a true D and not a Carper D.
True D, schmoo D.
Have any of you ever gone to visit Representative Castle with a plea for something, anything, progressive? It’s a funny farce. You are greeted and ushered into a conference room by the most junior staffer they can find. Upon saying your piece you are ushered out and they can barely maintain their composure before the door closes and they roll on the floor laughing.
Senator Carper, on the other hand, makes himself available, brings along the appropriate staffers, and actually listens. He doesn’t always vote the way we want him to, but he does take the time to listen, discuss and explain.
If John Carney is elected I expect something similar to the Carper experience. Not necessarily in the progressive corner but willing to listen. If Urguart wins it will be clown-time all over.
It is incremental politics. One step at a time, and it takes time. Carney is a D and that makes him head and shoulders above his opponent who thinks we should live in a theocracy.
One of my favorite things about Castle staffers is how often they sent me the wrong form letter when I’d contacted his office on a policy issue. Like, I write in favor of a stemcell issue and I get a letter back thanking me for my concern about gun laws.
Hard to feel my citizenship was amounting to anything, over there.
“some ‘Biden’ campaign magic.”
Can we please stop leaning on this corrupt family of poseurs? The kid is spectacularly unsuited for a politcal career, and there’s not the slightest sign that he has a progressive political bone in his body.
We’re replacing an R with a D in this race. Someone who unilaterally caves on the Bush tax cuts for the rich is not what I nor, I suspect, many D’s, had in mind. Especially since it appears now that the D’s will lose the House.
I’ll vote for him, but I’m tired of party leaders telling us ‘you’ll take what we tell you to, and you’ll like it.’
I can’t swallow tax breaks for billionaires, sorry. And I think that’s as close to a minimal litmus test to which one should subject a Democratic candidate.
Geezer: There are areas where the Biden name is magic. And Beau has some of that family charisma. And that can truly help, IMHO, the candidates I mentioned. That northeastern section of Brandywine Hundred and Claymont, in particular, near Archmere, is an area where the Biden name resonates.
I know that you think that they’re a ‘corrupt family of poseurs’, but I disagree and, more importantly, the voters have demonstrated that they disagree.
I have just one question: does anyone wish that Beau Biden had ran instead of Chris Coons?
Not me. I don’t like dynasties, in the sense that someone is ‘entitled’ to advance in the family business w/o proving themselves, however much I acknowledge their appeal. (See ‘Bennett, Brad’) Biden’s heart wasn’t in it and, much to my surprise, Coons has proven to be a relentless campaigner.
And I don’t want to hear anything about luck. As Branch Rickey (who brought Jackie Robinson to the majors) once said, “Luck is the residue of design.”
Luck favors the bold. Chris Coons was bold. Good for him.
ElS–nice suggestion for the Flowers camp. I agree that this is a very winnable race, but that Flowers needs to close the deal.
I would indeed love to see Heffernan and Counihan win (and then hold) those currently-R seats.
Traditional party gameplan is to focus on holding onto existing D seats. To move the party forward (in the liberal direction that I would like to see, and as this site is focused on), we therefore need to help candidates like Debra and Chris. By adding them to the mix, we get fresher faces and perspective in Dover. Only in this way will we get better leadership (which is especially needed in the state senate).
Wow. Could not disagree more…
1) While Coons’ campaign is ok, there have been some spectacular miscalculations and poorly planned events. It’s actually pretty widely known that team was unready for what befell upon them. In their defense, few people actually saw that coming. Coons also has nearly double the campaign staff and help from the DSCC – Carney is receiving no help from the nationals. Why? Because he’s going to win.
2) Chip Flowers is going to lose that race. You’re actually the only person I’ve heard – in any political circles – say that they think he will win. Frankly, he should lose, and I thought that well before the whole domestic violence thing came out.
C’mon El Som, you’re smarter than this.
“Chip Flowers is going to lose that race.”
Says you. Evidence?
“You’re actually the only person I’ve heard – in any political circles – say that they think he will win.”
Then you need to get out more.
“Frankly, he should lose…”
Why?
“…and I thought that well before the whole domestic violence thing came out.”
You say that as if the “domestic violence thing” damaged him. As far as I can tell, it sank without a trace.
I have my own take on this, which can be easily ascertained by looking up my comments here through the archives. But I have substantiated my position with a good bit of exposition. You? Nada so far.
RE: Carney’s poor campaigning.
I’ve commented on John Carney’s anemic campaign on numerous blogs and websites. It’s like he doesn’t care, or worse, is taking Glen Urquhart for granted.
Ever since the Minner/Carney regime ended, he’s been AWOL. He basically has made no discernible attempt to lay out his platform. What does he stand for? As a very knowledgable Delawarean, I haven’t seen anything from him, save for the ubiquitous glossy campaign mailer that resembles EVERY other candidate’s ubiquitous glossy campaign mailer.
I actually think that Chip is going to win. He has closed the gap on Bonini in the polls and shows no signs of letting up. On the other hand, Bonini has been conspicuously absent for the past few weeks. Add to that the increased Dem turnout I am expecting of people that plan to come out just to make sure that the witch doesn’t get elected and I think you see Bonini go down by 6 points.
Chris has been running tirelessly and I give him much credit for the way he has conducted himself, especially the last two weeks when he has to debate nutso frequently. I even saw him at an event talk for 5 minutes to someone who’s first words to him were “I’m not voting for you” and Chris listened and said he hoped the gentleman might come around if given the chance. Can you imagine COD doing that? Her security detail would have wisked her away like the guy was Hinkley! We need people that will listen to all sides and make the best decision, not act like you are on a mission for the almighty.
wow, I just now heard a Bonini radio ad that gave out Chip’s telephone number after some stupid mumbo jumbo and asked for people to call him and tell him that his plan is just too expensive and dangerous for Delaware etc. scare-mongering again. I wonder if he heard that Bloomberg has endorsed his opponent.
Chip had ought to trot out the Maryland Treasurer and introduce her to Delawareans. She is evidently already implementing much of his planned format. Then he could kinda show Bonini what is what. Especially if the MD Treasurer’s office has functioned that way through the Erlich years. Shoot, the Delaware Treasurer’s office used to function more like Chip’s format back before the much-hated Rzenwicki (sp?) took the seat and the Assembly acted to strip her of her authority.
Speaking of the Coons campaign, he was tentatively scheduled to speak at tonight’s Civic League candidates forum but is sending his brother instead. Christine O’Donnell has confirmed along with a slew of General Assembly people, the NCC council Hockessin area people, the Sheriff and the Recorder of Wills candidates.
Unlike anon’s depiction above, O’Donnell will be available for questions tonight and we’ll have about 20 minutes to hear what she plans to do for Delaware. I sure hope she talks about local issues.
I have seen Carney everywhere. Maybe that means he is campaigning at DEM events and not so much where Polemical is hanging out.
When Bonini was on the Bond Bill committee, he got $800,000 for a library at Wesley College, where he was employed at the time. State money for a Methodist institution? When Wesley fired him, he got the $800,000 removed from the Bond Bill appropriations.
This is a fellow who has voted against every state budget — even when he was serving on finance committees. That means he has consistently voted against roads, schools, teachers, veterans, parks, farmland, old people, poor people, you name it. Every election, he gets away with it.
Can’t anybody mount a credible campaign against this bloviated buffoon? It should be like shooting fish in a barrel.
Any way to document this, O Fellow Sleepwalker?
This would be a great story to share. And, pray tell, why did he lose his job at Wesley? You’dathunk that $800K would buy a lot of good will.
NW-can’t fault Carney himself for not getting around–he DOES go everywhere. It’s his campaign that just isn’t kicking out the jams as you’d expect. They’ve obviously decided to go the ‘play it safe’ route, which just might be the way John likes it. I’ve never been comfortable with a ‘playing not to lose’ mentality. You lose more that way than by goin’ balls to the wall.
As always, I appreciate El Som’s take on things and calling attention to the other races out there. Two legislative races I hope everyone is focused on are Mike Barbieri vs. Terry Spence and Darryl Scott vs. Ron Smith.
Barbieri’s in a district with registration numbers favoring him, but Spence still has that name recognition of 30 years going for him, but people have to remember how he ran the House. Barbieri’s done some great things and is one of the more understated legislators — he goes to Dover and does his job, no grandstanding.
Scott’s got a fight on his hands with a former 16-year Levy Court commissioner who has been a House attorney since Reagan’s first term. Ron definitely can’t run as an outsider. Scott’s one of the best freshmen out there, passing a hands-free cell phone/no texting bill that Repubs couldn’t get done and getting DelState a SEED-esque scholarship program.
Just two Democrats who are definitely deserving of support going into these last two weeks. If you know people who live in their districts, make sure they know about these guys and the alternative.
Straight Scoop – you have it just right. Barbieri is a class act. And Darryl Scott is a bright light in Legislative Hall. He is polite, persistent, and innovative. Unlike many freshmen, he has solid accomplishments.
One name I haven’t heard mentioned is Rebecca Walker. She has a real chance to pick up Dick Cathcart’s seat. This is her third run for this office, so the voters know her. She’s high energy and smart. She would bring a lot to the House. If you’re in the area, check her out. She’s running on a shoestring, but running well. I think she’ll win.
Sandy–I’m on record as predicting that both the 9th and the 24th will likely flip.
Becky Walker’s run before, and her campaigns have not lived up to her ‘on-paper’ potential. If she takes this seriously and runs all-out, there’s no reason why she shouldn’t win. But she’s never done that before.
Coons looks good because O’Donnell is so bad.
I’ll take it.
True. Coons was looking pretty good until his recent tax flip flop. I was actually starting to get behind Coons for reasons other than “he’s not O’Donnell.”
I suspect Coons was tipped off that Obama has his own tax flipflop in mind in lame duck, and Coons changed his tax position before the election rather than being accused of breaking his promise after the election. Both of these thoughts depress me.
I hope I am wrong.
Please. Like we’ve never seen a concern trolll before.
Democrats can win as much as they want by promising tax cuts for the rich.
And I’m not a concern troll, I’m a purity troll – get it straight!
I guess that makes you a centrist troll. We will see in the lame duck session who was right.