New Monmouth Poll Gives 10% Lead To Coons
Christine-mentum?
A new poll released by Monmouth (no internals yet) has Coons lead at 10% – 51% to 41%. This is 11% worse than yesterday’s FDU poll, and represents at 9% loss in Coons’s numbers from the previous Monmouth poll – last poll had Coons 57% to O’Donnell’s 38%. From the NJ:
In what is sure to be a surge of polling data coming at the end of the race, the newest numbers from Monmouth University show Democrat Chris Coons leading Republican Christine O’Donnell by 10 percentage points.
The newest poll, shows O’Donnell with 41 percent and Coons with 51 percent of those polled. The poll of 1171 likely voters was conducted October 25 to 27 and has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.
The poll also had Carney with a smaller lead:
Monmouth also polled the U.S. House race, finding Democrat John Carney ahead of Republican Glen Urquhart by 7 percentage points.
My guess for the discrepancy – the Likely Voter screen. FDU stated they didn’t see an “enthusiasm gap” in Delaware. I can’t guess what Monmouth is saying but I assume they have the Delaware electorate as more Republican-leaning than FDU does.
**UPDATE** Tommywonk tweets to me:
Which party would you like to control Congress? Monmouth D 38% R 40% Fairleigh Dickinson D 47% R 37%
Tags: Chris Coons, Christine O'Donnell, DE-AL, DE-Sen, Glen Urquhart, John Carney
This is good news for Democratic GOTV efforts.
wasnt there a 21% lead yesterday? this seems like a red flag…. or a red pollster.
I got this poll. It was less than 3 minutes long.
That was O’Donnell’s main complaint about that one night stand.
ba–ZING!
Was it a robo-poll JBH? Robopolls are much more Republican-leaning according to some new data.
nope, live person.
Please don’t believe polls. They are, and always have been, only a snapshot in time. They also suffer from old methodology which, for example, may exclude cell phone only voters. The old saws about “not walking into the endzone”…”the only poll that counts is the one on election day”….”It ain’t over till it’s over”…apply today more than ever. Work your local GOTV effort and make sure there’s a big turnout….
Both organizations showed Castle winning handedly on Sept 14…
These polling organizations are outdated, and their results are based on old methodology that was developed in the ’60’s and refined in the early 80’s…
Sorry, but I can’t trust their numbers…
Hint: they err on their predictions of “likely voters.” All the races are much tighter on the ground than appear here…
Just call her Senator O’Donnell
Both organizations showed Castle winning handedly on Sept 14…
Neither organization had a publicly released poll the week before the election. The only organization that did poll, PPP, did show the O’Donnell surge.
Kavips: Nothing in that comment is correct except for your statement that you don’t trust their numbers.
Neither organization polled the Delaware primaries. The only primary poll I could find, from Public Policy, showed O’Donnell 3 points ahead just days ahead of the primary. Is that poll’s methodology wrong, too, and if so, why did it predict the outcome so accurately?
Both Monmouth and Fairleigh-Dickinson are university-based operations that refine their methodology continuously. If both err on their predictions of likely voters, they must do so in opposite directions, since their results are 10 percentage points apart across the board.
There is nothing in any data, compiled anywhere by anyone, to indicate that any of the races are closer than the Monmouth poll, let alone “much tighter… than they appear here.” Even Rasmussen has basically the same numbers as Monmouth.
Let’s leave the fear-based irrationality to the Tea Partiers, shall we?
Sorry, UI — I started that response and got interrupted. What you said.
Don’t worry about it guys. Go back to sleep.
Monmouth was part robo-poll, part live interviews. Monmouth tells me they saw no discrepancy between the two.
Fairleigh Dickinson was all live interviews.
The time frame for the two polling periods intersected, but Monmouth finished later.
The constant in both these polls is that Urquhart trails his Democratic challenger by fewer points than O’Donnell trails her Democratic challenger.
Allan Loudell
WDEL Radio
“Monmouth tells me they saw no discrepancy between the two.”
Just an 11% discrepancy, which means that someone’s margin of error is screwed up.
Let’s just work hard, and get out the vote. If Dems vote, Dems win. That simple!
I am not a big believer in polls. I actually question any polling on Delaware elections. The state is not large enough and does not have a long history of competitive elections to build an accurate sample.
I am from PA, so the law of large numbers can smooth out the data.
Turnout is a large variable, and considering the small voter base in DE it cannot be factored with any degree of accuracy.
The key really will be turnout for Coons. If anything a narrow margin helps with the coons turnout, since his supporters would see no reason to make an extra effort with the wide polling margins.
also, the pollsters are idiots.
I got a call tonight from someone for COD…. but the call started out like this “im calling on behalf of… chris.. chris.. its either christine odonnell or chris coo…. for christine odonnell”
I am NOT making that up. the kid stammered through the script in a teabag accent (not southern, just dumb) mentioning COD was for the constitution and coons gets an F from the NRA….
at the end of it all i told him i WOULD be voting for COD.
THESE are the people who “want their country back”. PLEASE, everyone vote.
The real measure of the stupidity of the tea baggers is that they took a state that is a an uphill battle for republicans, where Castle would have easily taken a seat for the republicans, and gave it to the democrats.
The tea baggers does not even exist. They were hijacked last election cycle by the 9/12 patriots, which are simply the far right who are angry that anti-abortion is no longer a leading issue for republicans. Oh and the idiotic birther issue.
The issue is civil rights. I am a conservative republican, but I am a true believer in the Constitution. I don’t care if gay people get married, vote, and adopt a baby in the same day. I don’t have any right in telling a woman whether she can have an abortion.
How much money and time do we waste with group x trying to tell group y they cannot do something.. something that group x would never do, and does not hurt them. So who cares.
This election cycle I really am giving up on the right until they decide to tell these wingnuts to take a walk.
Dana: He meant Monmouth saw no discrepancy between their results with live interviewers vs. robocalls.
Regardless of the Polls, just get out and vote for Coons. Don’t let Biden’s seat go to a moron.
By the surge of Carney calls and pleads to help I’m getting, I’d venture to say his internal polls are showing it tightening too. Hopefully we don’t see any suprises…