How Could Christine O’Donnell Have Won?
Now that the election is over, the fingerpointing is beginning. People like Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint have gotten quite a bit of criticism for most likely costing Republicans control of the U.S. Senate. Now the pundits are getting into the game, talking about Christine O’Donnell and how she could have won in Delaware.
Chris Cillizza at The Fix does the math and finds that O’Donnell had a tough road in Delaware no matter what she did.
Raw numbers alone suggest that the math rarely — if ever — adds up for a Republican statewide win because of the Democratic dominance in New Castle. O’Donnell spent heavily on television — somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 million — to try to break through in New Castle, which is covered by the Philadelphia media market, but failed.
The last Republican to carry Delaware at the presidential level wasGeorge H.W. Bush in 1988; Roth was the last GOPer to win a Senate race in 1994 — a pretty good year to be a Republican almost anywhere. (In a painful fact for Republicans, Castle won 57 percent of the vote in New Castle in 2008 in his admittedly non-competitive reelection race.)
And, that’s before you consider that O’Donnell was a poor ideological fit for the state — a social conservative in a state where even most of the Republicans outside of Sussex County are socially moderate — who ran a odd and unpredictable campaign. (Who could forget her “I am not a witch” ad?”
Combine the New Castle hurdle with the fact that O’Donnell was simply the wrong type of candidate for Republicans in a state as friendly to Democrats as Delaware and it becomes apparent that barring some sort of historical anomaly, she was not going to be elected to the Senate no matter what the establishment did or did not do for her.
According to Cillizza’s math O’Donnell out-performed McCain’s 2008 showing but did worse than George W. Bush, and, of course, Mike Castle. Harry Themal at the News Journal isn’t so sure though. He wonders if the GOP infighting hurt Urquhart’s and O’Donnell’s chances at the polls.
What justifiably galled the party brass was that these “outsiders” upset the candidates they supported and who they thought would have won.
After all, longtime congressman and former governor Mike Castle would probably have easily beaten any Democrat for Joe Biden’s old seat. Party officials realized early that the seeds of losing had been sown by O’Donnell and Urquhart. Castle, to his credit, said he would support the party but failed to endorse O’Donnell.
In a network interview, O’Donnell pointed to a parallel situation in Kentucky, where Senate leader Mitch McConnell’s preferred candidate lost in a primary to maverick Rand Paul but the GOP then united to assure Paul’s easy election.
There is no guarantee, of course, that even united Delaware Republicans could have overcome the 50,000-vote margins by which Chris Coons and John Carney won. Chances are that those who opposed O’Donnell felt so strongly about her that nothing might have changed their votes.
Of course we’ll never know what would have happened if things had been different but I don’t see how you avoid hard feelings and internal strife when the most prominent Republican in the state is defeated in a dishonorable, negative campaign. Also, the Paul/Grayson primary was much earlier in the year and Grayson was not particularly prominent in the state yet (he was an up-and-comer). I agree with Cillizza – I think O’Donnell never really had a shot to begin with. I look at it this way: in a Republican year with plenty of money (around $5M), O’Donnell was able to improve her vote % by 4%. That’s it.
Mike Castle (and Tom Wagner) proves that a Republican can win in Delaware. However, Wagner and Castle do not fit into the current hard right Republican party. Until that changes, I doubt we’ll see more statewide elected Republicans.
Tags: Christine O'Donnell, DE-Sen
New Rule. Anti-choice theocrats will never be elected statewide in the State of Delaware. Plain and simple. It will never happen. Ever.
So if the GOP wants to win statewide again, they will nominate a social moderate.
Teabagger definition: Totally Enraged About Blacks and Gays Getting Equal Rights…fitting isnt it.
who is Christine O’Donnell?
O’Donnell could have won if Coons screwed up somehow and alienated voters. The fact that he did not screw up is what prevented O’Donnell’s attack ads from getting traction. Coons should get credit for steering between the rocks.
I agree with anon that Coons didn’t get lost in the bush(es).
There was a letter to the editor in today’s Delaware State News from some republican oriented fellow that bemoaned this very thing from the inside. He implied the fix was in after the primary because the regular Delaware GOP took a pass.
But those kind of political passes happen on the Democratic side, too. Which is why we cannot get a real challenger from the left to face Tom Carper, the Dino.
This is why I’ll miss Ted Kauffman, who was in no one’s pocket and actually listened & responded caringly to the constituentcy. What a contrast.
We have got to press for campaign finance reform, without which, we will have to learn to forget about representation in the new kleptocracy. This ideal is finally filtering down to the moderate Dems, after Citizens United and this past $4B mid-term. Although, it has been a clarion call for real progressives since Reagan.
Is enjoying the political fruit that would result from the continued presence of the divisive O’Donnell in state politics worth the longer term damage her shadow casts on the comity of the Delaware Way? I’d say no.
Boxwood: Agreed. We already have Protack on hand to perpetually divide Delaware Republicans. O’Donnell deserves a promotion to the national stage, so she can work her magic there.
But those kind of political passes happen on the Democratic side, too. Which is why we cannot get a real challenger from the left to face Tom Carper, the Dino.
Carper is the master at taking the Democrat out of Democrat bills and then voting Yes.
But now that the bills coming to the Senate will already be Republican, Carper’s record on up or down votes will come into sharper focus.
We already have Protack on hand to perpetually divide Delaware Republicans.
I thought everybody hated Protack.
OMG, another COD post! Let her die please!
PLEASE!!!
Not everybody. He’s been a thorn in the state party’s side for 20 years, and he’s not going to go away. All the O’Donnell supporters are his natural base; he just lacks her nutjob charisma.
Christine I am a witch is going to work for the Gov. of NJ, that whack job will run in 2016 he says. Does he believe Obama will win in 2012?
The Paul-O’Donnell comparison is absurd. In Kentucky, a generic Republican outpolls a generic Democrat by double digits — exactly the opposite situation from Delaware’s.
Rand Paul won because the Democrats couldn’t get enough people to defect from the GOP. Had the Democrat won, he’s be a Blue Dog. O’Donnell lost because she’s further right than the moderate Republican she replaced. Castle attracted lots of Democratic voters; O’Donnell drove away even some Republicans.
If the state Republican Party had enough influence to improve O’Donnell’s vote total, Castle would have won the primary. Ironic that she wanted help from an organization so impotent it couldn’t stop her in the first place.
Christine couldn’t work for the Gov. of NJ. With Ginger Gibson covering her every move, she’d have to cast spells 24/7.
Speaking of Gov. Christie, check out this story about his lavish travel expenses:
http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/20101109_Christie_travel_expenses_cited_in_U_S__report.html
Well, he does have to buy two seats on the plane.
Let us speak no more of that woman.
We need her to drive Democratic turnout in 2012, especially if Carper retires.
O’Donnell vs. Denn for Carper’s seat would be awesome (sorry to wish that on you Matt, but it would be awesome).
Anybody else?
Matt is not running for the Senate.
Comment by anon on 9 November 2010 at 11:17 am:
“We need her to drive Democratic turnout in 2012, especially if Carper retires. “
A sad commentary on the state of the Delaware Democratic party, don’t you think?
Matt is not running for the Senate.
I know. I was being hyperbolic.
On the other hand, maybe our bench isn’t as deep as we think it is. A low-name recognition Dem would not be a sure thing for an open Senate seat. The odds are with us, but not enough to be complacent.
Biden may need a job by then
“O’Donnell vs. Denn for Carper’s seat would be awesome.”
I think Denn could beat anyone on the DE GOP bench except Castle. I just wish O’Donnell would leave Delaware. She’s too much craziness and humiliation.
I don’t think Beau Biden is exactly “low name recognition.”
I voted for her in the primary because I’m a republican, but I only did it to try to get her to beat Castle, which she did. Because my intention all along was to vote for Coons, who I’m glad won. 🙂
O’Donnell was DOA after the first News-Journal story on her many character issues back in March. No one will appeal to independent voters who: hasn’t had a steady job for years; sued her past employer and then dismissed the case; lied about her college degree; was in a mortgage foreclosure situation; had an IRS tax lien filed against her; and, simply has no substantive achievements or substantial resume. She was never going to win. Period.
Ironically, while many of the diehard O’Donnell supporters want to blame Tom Ross or lack of support from the GOP, the fact is that witch line, the mouse with human brains, and the masturbation stuff was all raised by others after the primary. O’Donnell, of course, takes no personal responsibility for anything (it’s always someone else’s fault), but it seems to me that she was the one who made all the outrageous statements and she was the one with the checkered past and no substantive achievements.
Colin Bonini, by contrast, ran as a pure fiscal conservative. He’s been an elected official for years, and has none of the problems associated with O’Donnell.
O’Donnell lost by 51,000 votes, Bonini by only 6,000. There’s a powerful message there. If Castle had been at the top of the ticket, Bonini probably would have won and been set up pretty for 2012.
By the way, was there really a democratic surge in 2010 because of O’Donnell? Coon only received 4000 more votes than Carper in 2006. O’Donnell, but contrast received 42000 more than Ting/O’Donnell in 2006. So O’Donnell brought out voters, but the swing voters who would have supported Castle or a less questionable fiscal conservative like Bonini didn’t vote for her.
I’m with Publius.
I don’t quite agree with Publius. For one, Glen Urquhart barely got more votes than O’Donnell but he didn’t have her baggage. He beat her by about 2000 votes or so. Clearly, their message did not resonate with Delaware voters.
Bonini/Flowers OTOH – Bonini had a bigger name recognition. I doubt anyone knew what he was running on other than “it’s your money.” I think there’s little evidence to say his “fiscal conservative” message made a difference with voters.
OK-I normally would never vote for a Tea Party candidate, but I might’ve made an exception for Christine, who is a babe.
Were she to have had a chance at winning, it would’ve been incumbent upon her to disabuse the electorate of their suspicion that she’s unintelligent or in favor of imposing theocracy on America. She needed to read a stack of books, appear on all the political shows, and all the late night shows including Charlie Rose. She needed to grant print interviews to anyone that would have her. She needed to confront her past by appearing on Bill Maher.
She needed to explain her campaign finance irregularities. It would have been easy enough…”that tank of gas was to go visit my supporters…those groceries were for a strategy session with my staff….” She has a nice sense of humor-she needed to use it, ’cause it’s the most effective weapon in politics. Oh, and that debate answer about separation of church and state? Worst thing she could’ve said. She needed to mutter something about how she doesn’t want theocracy, she just wants kids to be able to sing Christmas carols at school.
In summary, she was always a longshot, but terrible advice & strategy sealed her fate.
The only long shot Christine won was the primary, after that she was done – and everyone in DE with a brain knew it.
@Publius
Yes, but now it’s all irrelevant. She’s famous for being famous, and will never have to work for the rest of her life.
Only in America….
Christine O’donnell the next Kitty Carlisle.
Orestes, what do you have against Kitty Carlisle?
It’s all about Upper New Castle County in Delaware statewide elections. O’Donnell beat the shit out of Coons in Sussex and won Kent as well. And she still lost statewide by a staggering 50,000 votes. We are such a divided little state. A New York Times reporter who once visited wrote that Sussex could just as well be the northernmost county of Missisippi. Along those lines Greater Wilmington clings to the belly of Boston like a barnacle. Politically speaking of course.
He was probably a yankee fan.