Delaware Legislative Cattle Call [2012]
The new House District Map folds the existing 11th and 20th House districts into neighboring districts. Republican Representatives Joe Miro and Nick Manolakos are now residents of the same district (the 22nd).
Greg Lavelle is placed into the 12th District, currently held by Debbie Hudson. Given Tony DeLuca’s retaliation against Progressives that voted against him for the Senate Pro Tem position, resulting in a more Republican district for Democratic Senator Michael Katz (who ran as the progressive alternative against DeLuca), Lavelle is likely to leave the House and run against Katz.
Two new House districts have been created from the elimination of the old 11th and 20th. The new 11th District encompass the southwestern quadrant of southern New Castle County south of Middletown and west of U.S. 13 and the northwestern quadrant of Kent County. It would include the municipalities of Townsend, Kenton and Hartly. The new 20th District will cover Lewes and Milton, running south near Long Neck, encompassing the Harbeson area and reaching west near the city limits of Georgetown. This is a district that seems to be designed for Harvey Kenton’s best friend, Russ McCabe. Based on the numbers, both of these districts will be competitive.
In the Senate, the 6th SD (Sorenson) and the 8th (Sokola) are merged into the new 8th District covering most of the Newark area. This is more evidence of DeLuca’s revenge, thoughing someone who voted against him (Sokola) into a district with an established but not crazy insane Republican (Sorenson). Assuming they both run, it will be quite a race. The new 6th Senate District will cover Lewes, Rehoboth, Dewey and out to Milton. Andy Staton has already stated his intentions to run for that seat, and he might be joined by Sussex County Councilwoman Joan Deaver, who looks to be redistricted out of her seat on the County Council.
Now that the dust is settling, what we are looking for now is who is going to retire. Many of the districts were moved here and there, losing longtime strongholds while gaining unfamiliar and sometimes hostile terrority. For example, in the 4th RD, is Gerry Brady really going to campaign in Hockessin? And then there are the retirements that may happen no matter the results of redistricting (Speaker Gilligan? Senator McBride or Senator Venables?)
So who do you hear is running, or retiring? Below is a list of all the Senate and House districts, since they are all up for election in 2012.
THE STATE SENATE–Dems control 14-7.
1st–Harris McDowell. Unopposed in 2010.
2nd–Margaret Rose Henry.
3rd–Bob Marshall. Will he retire? If he does, look for Rep. Helene Keeley to seek a promotion.
4th–Michael Katz. Greg Lavelle will likely run for the Senate rather than go up against Deborah Hudson in the House. The 4th was moved to the west, and lost the Democratic neighborhoods east of Concord Pike. So Katz is in trouble.
5th–Cathy Cloutier. She won in 2010 over Democrat Chris Counihan with 55%. With the 1st district taking the riverfront communities of Claymont and Bellefonte, the 5th district moved west as well, now covering most of the triangle of Brandywine Hundred (Naamans, Concord, Philadelphia Pike). Still a Democratic district, but less so.
6th–New District in Lewis, Dewey, Rehoboth and Milton. It will lean Democratic.
7th–Patricia Blevins. She won in 2010 over Teabagger Fred Cullis with 62%.
8th–David Sokola and Liane Sorenson. Sokola won in 2010 over Republican Lou Saindon with 61%. Sorenson won reelection narrowly in 2008, with 51% of the vote.
9th–Karen Peterson. She won in 2010 over Republican Bob Johnston with 72%.
10th–Bethany Hall Long
11th–Tony DeLuca
12th–Dori Connor. She ran unopposed in 2010.
13th–David McBride. He ran unopposed in 2010, but he might be retiring in 2012.
14th–Bruce Ennis. He won in 2010 with 66% over Republican John Moritz.
15th–David Lawson. He won in 2010 with 52% of the vote over long time Democratic incumbent Nancy Cook.
16th–Colin Bonini.
17th–Brian Bushweller.
18th–Gary Simpson.
19th–Joe Booth. He was unopposed in 2010.
20th–George Bunting. He was unopposed in 2010, but may retire.
21st–Robert Venables.
THE STATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES—Dems control 26-15.
1st–Dennis P. Williams. Unopposed in 2010.
2nd–Stephanie Bolden. Unopposed in 2010.
3rd–Helene Keeley. Won in 2010 with 83% over Robert Bovell.
4th–Gerald Brady. Won with 65% of the vote in 2010 over Republican Richard Carroll.
5th–Melanie George. Unopposed in 2010.
6th– Debra Heffernan. She won over Republican incumbent and now New Castle County Council President Tom Kovach (R), 51% to 48%.
7th–Bryon Short . He defeated Republican Judy Travis 57% to 41%.
8th–Quin Johnson. He defeated Republican Kathleen Rokosz 63% to 37%.
9th–Rebecca Walker. She won over Republican John Marino 51% to 49%.
10th–Dennis E. Williams. He beat Republican Bob Rhodunda 53% to 47%.
11th—New District—Middletown area, South New Castle County, Northwest Kent County.
12th–Debbie Hudson (R) and Greg Lavelle (R) . Both cruised in their most recent reelection campaigns. Lavelle will likely try to move up to the Senate.
13th–John Mitchell . He basically won unopposed (he had Blue Enigma opposition) in 2010.
14th–Peter Schwartzkopf. The Majority Leader defeated Teabagger Chris Weeks 54 to 46%
15th–Valerie Longhurst. She beat Republican James Van Houten 71% to 28%.
16th–James Johnson. Unopposed in 2010.
17th–Michael Mulrooney . Unopposed in 2010.
18th–Michael Barbieri. He beat back the former Speaker he beat in 2008, 53% to 46%.
19th–Robert Gilligan. The Speaker trounced Republican Vincent Ruff 73% to 27% in 2010.
20th–New District in Lewes, Milton, Long Neck, Georgetown East.
21st–Michael Ramone. Unopposed in 2010.
22nd–Joe Miro and Nick Manolakos. Miro beat Democrat Dave Ellis 67% to 33% and Manolakos won handedly as well. Will they run against each other in a primary?
23rd–Terri Schooley. She beat William Stritzinger (R) 68% to 32%.
24th–Ed Osienski . He defeated Abraham Jones (R) 68% to 32%.
25th–John Kowalko. He beat Gordon Winegar (R) 66% to 34%.
26th–John Viola. He was basically unopposed, as he trounced his Republican opponent, Hans-Erik Janco, 97% to 3%.
27th–Earl Jaques . He beat Republican Jay Galloway 65% to 35%.
28th–Bill Carson. He won over Republican Karen Minner 68% to 32%.
29th–Lincoln Willis. He beat John McCutchan (D) 59% to 41%.
30th–Bill Outten. Unopposed in 2010.
31st–Darryl Scott . He defeated Ronald Smith (R) 59% to 41%.
32nd–Brad Bennett . He beat back two opponents, winning 50.2% while having a DUI charge hanging over him. It was impressive.
33rd–Harold Peterman. He Democratic incumbent Bob Walls 52% to 48%. Will he be a target in 2012?
34th–Donald Blakey. He topped three opponents with 62%.
35th–David Wilson . He beat Jim Westhoff (D) 70% to 30%.
36th–Harvey Kenton. He beat Russ McCabe (D) 54% to 46%.
37th–Ruth Briggs King. She won with 62% over Frank Shade (R).
38th–Gerald Hocker. Unopposed in 2010.
39th–Daniel Short . Unopposed in 2010.
40th–Clifford Lee. Unopposed in 2010.
41st–John Atkins. He defeated former Representative Gregory Hastings (R) 55% to 45%.
Andy Staton has already stated his intentions to run for that seat, and he might be joined by Sussex County Councilwoman Joan Deaver, who looks to be redistricted out of her seat on the County Council.
On what do you base this? The former council president, Vance Phillips, has said none of the five incumbents will be placed into another district. That was in the News-Journal a while back. Yes, she could lose a re-election fight in her new district, but that’s not the same thing.
And I have heard the opposite, that she will find herself in George Cole’s district once the maps are released. We will have to wait and see I guess.
Vance did say publicly that none of the council members will be gerrymandered out of their districts. Thats only slightly more believeable than an unsubstantiated rumor.
Then again, you have to take the word of Vance Phillips.
Frank Shade wants to run again. He will be in the newly formed 20th RD. There are also grumblings about at least one, possibly two people wanting to run against Ruth Briggs King in her new district.
Joan told me that she would consider moving if she were gerrymandered into Coles district.
Cole isnt really the problem. He and Joan often vote together on land issues because he feels the pinch of development just like Joan does. I am not defending Cole at all. He is a pompous a$$ who has the council seat because of family lineage and likes the job just for his families health benefits.
The problem is with the council stacked with 3 west and 2 east members. That little sliver of Vance’s district into Fenwick doesnt have the votes to influence Vance at all.
There is our problem… taking the word of Vance Phillips. I will believe him when I see what he and the Council votes on.
And you are right, Cole generally isn’t a problem re development and land issues.
Regarding Briggs King, good, we need good people to run against her.
I do feel like the 20th is going to be a free for all, but I think Pete had Russ McCabe in mind for the district.
Shade has already said he is running. McCabe has been mum, but the district was crafted for him. RBK picked up a lot of the manufactured home communities and they HATE her. Look for either a primary of many registered GOPers crossing over to vote for her Dem opponent.
One of Joan’s concerns during last year’s election was that if the good old boys maintained control of SCC, they would move her into Cole’s district (she’s only about 200 feet from the district line) and she’d be out. Vance does owe some people on our side of the fence some favors for supporting him in the showdown earlier this year with Wyatt Earp.
I’m just hoping that we run candidates in all of the races down here and not give Danny Short, Biff Lee and Gerry Hocker a free ride once again.
You are correct that Cole is really not the problem . The problem is Vance Phillips and the”limited” government approach . “Hey,guys lets meet on Tuesday morning at 10 am and do this part-time.”.”Heck,we don’t need a county planner .Lets just save that money. I think those developers are doing just fine”… Sussex County needs a FULL-TIME council . The problem is Vance Phillips has the voters thinking that this will cost more.”bigger Government,yada,yada” . Adequate government does NOT cost more ,it cost less.Think about it.
If they gerrymandered the districts like that, there would be a huge uproar. There’s no compelling, non-political reason to do that.
The paper reported today that the district maps will be out in two weeks, followed by 10 days for comments. So we’ll see then. And if that’s the case, people can protest.
I think the 11th District is interesting – who the hell is going run?
As for Katz v. Lavelle, Lavelle will destroy Katz. Which is unfortunate, because he’s a total jackass, but not as much of a jackass as Katz. He’s also a much, much, much better campaigner.
As for Sokola and Sorenson, I think Liane takes that race. Sokola has no org left and he made some enemies, obviously.
You can bitch about Deluca and what not, but this is politics and it’s a transactional business. If you want to get away with a heist, you can’t leave any witnesses. They made a gamble and it didn’t work out. Thems the breaks
Just my two cents…
I think Sokola has a fighting chance, because Liane lost some of the Greenville / Hockessin area in the new district.
Just looking at the list you outlined in color, it is very apparent that we have far too many Republicans in office.. We need more democrats. Republicans are lazy, and are solely responsible for letting this state wither on the vine.
I think there’s enough out there on Lavelle to make him damaged goods and Katz will squeak through with 51% of the vote.
The problem with that argument, kavips, is that there *are* no “name” Democrats downstate, where the party needs to make inroads. Look at the 33rd to the 40th, eight seats total, all south of the canal. Three were unopposed last time around.
Three others won with more than 60 percent. That makes just two seats (Kenton and Peterman) even remotely susceptible to challenges.
There are few to none downstate Democrats who could – or are willing to – take on people like Dave Wilson (popular auctioneer, countywide name recognition from holding row office), Gerald Hocker (popular businessman, name recognition from grocery stores), Danny Short (former mayor, fire chief) or Biff Lee (former town councilman, firefighter, son of late state representative).
Any successful Democrat would have to have a public profile and name recognition on par with the incumbent’s. The basic anti-incumbent pitch didn’t work for Barbara Hudson against Biff Lee in 2008 (41 percent) or Jim Westoff against Dave Wilson in 2010 (30 percent). Westhoff in particular busted his ass in the heart of conservative Delaware, and got nowhere. You’ve got to have a business or a base to win.
Sokola and Katz incurred Tony’s revenge. Sorenson nearly lost(51-49) to a bad candidate. He was vice president of the Chrisina School Board and sorenson hung all of the abuses and extravanges around his neck. Sokola is a terrific campaigner and has a great record in the Senate.He should win handily in that University Newark and its suburbs is a good place to sell his opposition to Delucca.It was reported here that Keely beat Bovell 83-17.That was in the general with Bovell running on the Working Family Party ticket. She had two close primaries against Bovell winning 2010 55-45. That’s why they reduced the district from a 61% minority District to 51%. The Black caucus and the NAACP must be asleep at the switch. such a significant reduction in majority minority district is clearly in violation with reapportionment court precedent and would likely be overturned if challenged
I’m pretty sure the black leadership in Wilmington protested pretty vigorously. IIRC, they made some noise, but never followed up on it.
I think Sokola is going to have a tough time raising money and continuing to run against Deluca isn’t going to help things. I don’t think Sokola has the org behind him now that he used to.
That whole bizarre coup or whatever it was in the State Senate was just bad politics, through and through. You don’t pull that sort of stunt unless you know you’re going to win.
No way Katz wins that seat… I bet Lavelle beats him by 10.
I bet Liane wins by 4 or 5 points.
I agree, JTF, on not pulling off a coup unless you know you are going to win. And I think Katz will lose. But I think Sokola will win.
I know of a Rehoboth Beach, Mike Castle Repub who considers running against Pete Schwartzkopf to be a complete waste of time and money, but who is very interested in seeing what the County Council lines look like, or maybe making a run at the 6th SD.
I agree that many times you don’t raise an issue unless you know that you are gonna win.
However, sometimes the principle matters. Sometimes it matters for Democratic legislators to stand up and say just because DeLuca has a D after his name doesn’t mean that he is the annointed. Sometimes people have to speak up and say that the emperor has no clothes. This was done in the past 12 months, and this weakens DeLuca, and makes Democrats better able to hold their heads up.
I say thank you to Katz, Sokola, Peterson and the others who waged a losing battle last December. Certainly DeLuca won that battle, and the redistricting battle. The war wages on, however.
A senate race to watch is Bonini in the 16th. The current district, voted for Obama with 48% in 2008 but the new district would vote for Obama with 52%. The new district lost the conservative areas around Harrington but picked up areas east of Dover that Bonini hasn’t represented since the ’90s. These areas are more Democratic, but also more suburban.
A moderate Democrat would stand a good chance. It’s a shame that the bench is pretty weak in that part of the state. Do any names come to mind?
Keep in mind that they had the votes until Colin Bonini jumped ship.
Also, if the Sokola-Sorenson race comes down to who can campaign the hardest, Sokola wins going away. One of the hardest working candidates I’ve ever met. Liane simple cannot match him at the doors.
I think that Sokola wins a fairly close one, something like 54-46. Of course, we’re more than a year away…
@PBaumbach – If it was about principles and not about Mike Katz’s god complex, I’d agree with you slightly. Also this idea that Deluca is ‘weakened’ – I don’t see it.
@El Som – Perhaps they did have the votes but I’ve seen very little political acumen from Katz & Co. to assume they had a real whip operation running there.
As for Sokola, yes, he’s more athletic than Liane and he will hit more doors. His problem will be other shoes on the ground. I think Sorenson will have him beat with org and with pulling that stunt earlier this year, I’m sure Deluca will make sure money isn’t coming into the coffers.
I think we both agree it will be close but in the org and money game (which, as you know, is where these things are won and lost), I’d give Liane the edge right now. We shall see I spose…
The real deal on Sorenson and Sokola is missed by all of you. Sorenson will face a primary from the right and she is a goner.
Katz vs Lavelle is not going to work for Lavelle. Katz has worked hard and in that part of the state not being tied to the crooks and insiders will drive lavelle to the loss column. The Millcreek region which will have to support Lavelle is a total and complete non factor in the race. Lavelle is not known in the area and is untested outside his protected enclave in Bwine.
Real Deal– the right can’t beat sorenson in a primary. This isn’t Bear or Sussex County. Newark and Hockessin(and Brandywine) are the heart of what’s left of the moderate wing of the Republican Party
For what its worth, Bunting and Venables will run. A lot of locals are STILL pissed with Booth.
Just a thought: might Sorenson leave the Senate for a run at a County or Statewide seat?
FMD: Nah. For Liane, it’s either the Senate or go home. BTW, I’ve worked in campaigns where I’ve seen both the Sorenson and Sokola teams in operation. There’s no comparison. Sokola’s got a battle-tested grassroots operation. Liane can’t really come close to it.
I wouldn’t be 100% shocked if she didn’t run.
She would be the perfect statewide candidate for the GOP, but the teabaggers will never vote for her.