Thinking Way Ahead
I like thinking ahead, even if it is a pointless exercise. Assuming Governor Markell, Lt. Governor Denn, Senator Carper and Congressman Carney win reelection next year, and assuming Attorney General Biden wins a third term in 2014 and Senator Coons and State Treasurer Chip Flowers win reelection to their respective offices in 2014, it sets up 2016 as an interesting year for possible confrontation and primaries among the deep Democratic statewide lineup. It might be 2008 all over again.
Here is a rundown of offices and the possible candidates:
Governor
Lt. Governor Denn
Treasurer Flowers
Attorney General Biden
Lt. Governor
Treasurer Flowers
Insurance Commissioner Crane
Then in 2018, I finally expect Senator Carper to retire, which sets up another possible collision course:
Senator
Fmr. Governor Markell
Attorney General Biden (if he has not been elected Governor)
Congressman Carney
Of course, events and the Delaware Way may figure this all out long before these potential primaries occur. Lt. Governor Denn may not run for Governor, and Flowers may decide to run for Lt. Governor instead in order to avoid a primary, leaving Biden as the gubernatorial nominee. Congressman Carney may decide to stay where he is in order to avoid another matchup with Markell. The one thing I find interesting though is Chip Flowers. I recall another State Treasurer with higher ambitions and enthusiastic campaign volunteers. And if I recall that State Treasurer was successful in moving up against the Delaware Way.
Flowers as a modern day Carper? I don’t know. What Dem did Carper have to beat in a primary to run for his house seat? I’m asking because I’ve always thought that Carper’s great skill is picking out the weak Republican. Flowers is never going to have the same kinds of opening due to the utter dissolution of the DE GOP.
[Update:It was a weakened Thomas B. Evans, Jr. that Carper beat for the house seat. He didn’t face a primary.]
I think Carney would take the House seat as a lifetime sinecure, as Castle did when he got there.
Um, no Flowers as a modern day Markell. Carper never had enthusiastic supporters.
I think you are right about Carney, if he can keep the seat.
I don’t get the Flowers boomlet. While he was infinitely preferable to the slothful Colin Bonini, I don’t see him on that level. (Although, were he to primary Tom Carper, I could be persuaded…)
I don’t see Mitch Crane going the Denn route. We see what a disaster that led to in the IC’s office. He is qualified to be IC, I hope that’s what he wants to do and, for now, ALL that he wants to do.
I think Markell has designs on running for President. I really do.
Plus, near as I can figure there’d be no Senatorial race in 2016. If Carper wins in 2012, he’s not up again until 2018.
(Oops, didn’t read closely enough. DD’s right, it’s 2018. Far too long to wait for someone to replace Carper.)
You’re forgetting future Lieutenant Governor Schwartzkopf.
I agree, El Som. I do see Markell running for President. But in a primary with Governor Cuomo and Senator Elizabeth Warren, I am just not sure ….. Perhaps if he hires me as a speechwriter or something. LOL.
And yes, there is no Senate race scheduled for 2016. I thought I made that clear by referring to Carper retiring in 2018, when he would be up for reelection again.
Anon,
I considered that, but I think Schwartzkopf just wants to be Speaker. Gilligan will not be around that much longer…
For Markell, Cuomo or Warren to be elected president in 2016, Obama’s going to have to go down in flames next year. Look at history. Only once in the last 50 years have presidents of the same party succeeded each other at the polls (George H.W. Bush succeeding Reagan in ’88; Ford and Johnson can’t really count because of the circumstances of their ascension).
I don’t think Jack has any interest in being in DC on a daily basis, even by train. I can see him as a future Secretary of Commerce or Secretary of the Treasury.
Markell will probably try to run for President in 2016. So will Cuomo and O’Malley – Jack has no shot. MAYBE they give him a cabinent post? But who knows? He hasn’t really played in the big leagues yet so I’m skeptical. I don’t know on what planet Liz Warren runs for Presidet in 2016. You guys watch too much Current TV or something.
As for Flowers, ho-hum, I think that’s a car wreck waiting to happen.
I think Carney runs for Governor in 2016.
I don’t know what Denn does – maybe AG?
I imagine Beau will run for Senate at some point, but I don’t know how long he wants to just wait around. He also hasn’t done a bang up job in the AG office. I don’t get the sense he wants to be Governor, but who knows.
So this is interesting as the Delaware Way slate — the people who are waiting their turn, etc., etc,. etc.
Where are the straight up Delaware progressives that people would like to see run for higher office?
Hint taken. I will run Cassandra, but I have to wait until after all of my posts and comments rotate out of the cached memory of the Google cloud.
Cassandra, I don’t think it is likely that progressive candidates will be groomed, recruited, and sponsored by the local progressive community, as you sometimes challenge progressives.
In this climate a progressive candidate will have to be a gifted breakout candidate who suddenly captures attention, like Elizabeth Warren, and takes advantage of the natural appeal and energy of boldly staking out clear populist, progressive positions.
“In this climate a progressive candidate will have to be a gifted breakout candidate…(who) takes advantage of the natural appeal and energy…”
*Blush” I wasn’t fishing for compliments, but I’ll take it.
Oh my God, you were serious 🙂
Just let me know where to send the check…
By the time my comments are rotated out of the Google cloud, I’ll be able to run a multi-billion yuan self-financed steamroller.
So you can send your check to Warren.
Please run, if only to drive Hube around the bend.
“If elected I will see that all Delaware teachers get a huge raise, except one.”
Way ahead or wishfully:)
Lt. Governor
Treasurer Flowers
Insurance Commissioner Crane
Cassandra, I don’t think it is likely that progressive candidates will be groomed, recruited, and sponsored by the local progressive community, as you sometimes challenge progressives.
Translation: Even with a 5 year window (we are talking about 2016), local progressives from a thoroughly blue state can’t even *imagine* a candidate for any of these offices.
A 5 year window.
“Translation: Even with a 5 year window (we are talking about 2016), local progressives from a thoroughly blue state can’t even *imagine* a candidate for any of these offices.”
How many progressives can you name in public office? Wilmington City Council doesn’t count. And don’t list Kowalko or Peterson, because they aren’t interested and already are disliked by the party at large.
Whatever you answer, please realize that the offices you list are usually not for beginners. Chip was an exception because both his Democratic and Republican opponents were seriously flawed.
Again, progressives don’t have to field progressive candidates. Progressives are perfectly happy to support regular Democrats who don’t fall right of center, and who are willing to confront damaging right-wing policies. Actual progressive politics is far to the left of what progressives are willing to support in real life.
I think that’s right Puck.
The Delaware Way is just too powerful. I can think of potential progressive candidates, but I know that none of them want to even think about challenging Carper in 2012.
Flowers IS a train wreck waiting to happen – for many reasons – there is a serious flaw there and it has already peaked out – you can only put the dirt under the carpet for so long – eventually the bulge becomes noticable.
Plus – he’s all hat – no cattle
sit back and watch.
and Im not prone to doom and gloom predictions like that, but this one I’m calling like I see it
How many progressives can you name in public office?
This is basically my question. And we are talking about 5 years out too.
And there are no progressives on the Wilmington City Council. Full Stop. I’ve noted this OFTEN.
Again, progressives don’t have to field progressive candidates.
Actually, you do. Look at the teajadi success in getting even their own moderates to go full teatard. That isn’t about supporting “regular Republicans who are willing to confront left-wing policies”. It is about getting people to run who they know will do that. Not being ready to run your own candidates leaves you whining about how this one or that one disappointed/lied/betrayed or whatever you.
No doubt that the Delaware Way is powerful, but the flip side of that argument is the Delaware’s progressives are no where near ready to play — in a state that is thoroughgoing Blue. And we’re still talking about your 2016 timeline DD — not 2012.
I can think of potential progressive candidates …
Please, then, for the love of kittens and rainbows, somebody please name one!!!!!!!!!!
“Look at the teajadi success in getting even their own moderates to go full teatard.”
Except they actually haven’t. They have bludgeoned the establishment leaders into lip service, but not any actions they wouldn’t have taken anyway.
And look at the candidates the ‘baggers have latched onto. People like Christine O’Donnell, Michele Bachmann and Sharron Angle were in government long before a single leaf of orange pekoe was plucked. They are perennial losers who finally found a disgruntled electorate who’d embrace them. I don’t want to repeat that mistake by turning to long-time cranks and losers just because they’re progressive.
I need a good reason to toss away a vote on someone unelectable. Mere progressiveness isn’t enough, at least not for me.
Christine O’Donnell was never “in Government” thank goodness
truth be told – she was rarely even “in employment”
lets keep it that way
You’re right. But my point is that while many of the Tea Partiers are new to politics, their candidates are a bunch of retreads that even Republicans wouldn’t vote for a few years ago.
and you are right there….so here is the question:
How do we make the retreads bald??
and ensure the GOP vehicle goes flat next election?
(like that analogy?)
Except they actually haven’t. They have bludgeoned the establishment leaders into lip service, but not any actions they wouldn’t have taken anyway.
You have an odd idea of lip service. Republicans have continued moving rightward, the business of compromise is toxic, the business of *governing* isn’t even of interest to them, the media breathlessly reports on teajadi doings and people like Richard Lugar (no real teatard DNA) is making the noises to save his seat. Even better — their politicians pay attention to them for the reasons you want politicians to pay attention to you. People here are always complaining about progressives not being listened to or even getting better theater from their pols in dealing with Republicans. Yet the teajadis get all of this and more.
And even if the GOP are doing what they would have done anyway, the teajadis have been giving them quite effective political cover. Political cover that isn’t exactly on offer by progressives for their own side.
The Tea Party had enormous resources dumped into it by the corporatists and they also had a long standing propaganda machine behind them at Faux News and all the various hate-radio outlets. There is no such thing for progressive voices in America. Air America died. Kos Radio preaches to the choir. We’ve got Rachael and we had Keith, but MSNBC isn’t overly thrilled to have either of them on air and Keith had to move because he got a bit out-there. His was nothing compared to the vitriol that Rush has been spouting for decades but now we’ve got to hunt the dial to find him.
With the local exceptions of Al and DelawareLiberal, we just don’t have the communication network to sell our ideas or our candidates. This makes it pretty difficult to mount a ground swell operation that compares with the propaganda machine of the Tea Party. We are not equivalents by a long-shot. It is much, much harder for us. And running to lose isn’t satisfying at any level. It’s a waste of time and resources. Heartbreaking for the candidate and the volunteers.
Progressives can have more influence by learning how to play coalition politics, than by trying to win elections with card-carrying progressives.
Yes I get it, it isn’t a fair fight. But really, as this thread points out to me, there isn’t much fight at all. We aren’t talking about nationwide changes here — we are talking about Delaware and all I’m asking is where the progressive candidates are for 5 years down the road. I guess that lots of excuses *why* this isn’t possible is its own answer, although not to the question I posed.
In Delaware, the biggest obstacle is the Delaware Way. The local teajadis got a ton of money to mortally wound themselves and to make sure Christine O’Donnell could show up on the Sunday Yack Shows in style. Yet, this oddly doesn’t manifest itself as an opportunity to make a play for “Better Democrats” in this blue state.
So I won’t belabor this anymore. I think I got the answer I didn’t want to hear, but also the reason why the Carpers and the Carneys feel pretty free to be Blue Dogs in a place that in theory ought to me more hostile to that.
Cass: I think a big part of the situation is that Delaware, whether red or blue, is always only moderately so. This is not and has never been a hotbed of activism on either side, which is why the Teajadis have had such a hard time getting traction outside of Sussex.
As for the lip service, the Tea Party did not get its government shutdown, it did not stop the raising of the debt ceiling, and even Obama’s “grand bargain” debt plan of $4 trillion over 10 years — meaning just $400 million per year — won’t do anything meaningful about long-term debt. If that’s winning, it’s overrated. You might think they won because they moved the Overton window; they think they lost because they couldn’t toss all the liberals out the window, and I’m inclined to agree with them.
Geezer nailed it.
It boils down to what the voters are willing to support, and statewide Delaware is centrist, even though we have a Democratic registration advantage. Senator Carper and Representative Carney know their constituents and they aren’t all urban liberals. As puck notes, they have a coalition of supporters including bankers and farmers and religious, and, even occasionally progressives. We choose to call that the Delaware Way but it is also electoral reality.
the Tea Party did not get its government shutdown, it did not stop the raising of the debt ceiling, and even Obama’s “grand bargain” debt plan of $4 trillion over 10 years — meaning just $400 million per year — won’t do anything meaningful about long-term debt. If that’s winning, it’s overrated.
And again we see the genuine differences between these tejahdis (and conservatives) and everyone else. Conservatives get the process. So they don’t mind getting their bite and coming back for more. Liberals or progressives or whoever we are talking about here consider the world a failure if their entire policy preferences don’t materialize shortly after they cast a vote. The entire business of *debt-reduction* is a teajadi subject that DC has been captured by, even though most Americans (according to polls) want the government to focus on jobs. So what if they only got some of the way to their goal? What *they* know is that the process gives them plenty of opportunity to at progress towards that goal. And they have lots of political cover to get there. One or two small wins on their part is not worth dismissing — because they do know that a bunch of small wins changes everything.
I get the Centrist thing. But I think that Delawareans are Centrist in the way that lots of other centrists are — they support a bunch of liberal or progressive policy choices, but they just won’t take on the label. And I think that Delaware’s politicians know that they aren’t going to be pushed too much on those policies from voters. Which leaves us with representation that is pretty much free to *not* represent the people who vote for them. I’d bet ALOT of money that most Delawareans have no idea of what Tom Carper’s voting record actually looks like. And that Tom Carper has been voting to undercut the interests of the people he asks to vote for him routinely.
So, serious question — if this *centrism* is baked in the cake, not able to be moved, is just its own recurring narrative, what is the point of the Progressive Democrats of Delaware?
Cassandra,
The orignial PDD mission was exactly what you just used to describe the tejahdis. Keep pulling left and take all the small victories you can get. I think it still is. It takes enormous patience and decades to have an impact but it is worth working for.
So just who are these potential progressive candidates????? Can anyone name one?
In case you missed this in today’s NYT, What Ever Happened to the American Left, go read:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/25/opinion/sunday/whatever-happened-to-the-american-left.html?pagewanted=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
Rebecca, Thanks for that link. Here are the last few paragraphs, but everyone really should read the whole thing.
I’ll cop to being part of a dilettante upper-middle class left wing that is mostly social and rarely impact-full. While I try to have an impact through my work and my meager donations to candidates and causes, I can’t look at my work over the past 10 years and say that I’ve contributed much overall.
If I want to kid myself, I could say that DelawareLiberal is part of that “witty anti-authoritarian new media, and I guess I thought that electing Obama, was the payoff for a few years of inching the dialogue to the left, but we all see now how that panned out.
That is a great article. And the second paragraph that Jason cited is largely the argument that I’ve (and so have others) been making here — outsourcing the work of achieving your goals to politicians (especially those not wholly committed to your team) is a recipe for failure of your goals. And this, a thousand times this:
To paraphrase the labor martyr Joe Hill, the left should stop mourning its recent past and start organizing to change the future.
Which is why I keep asking about a progressive future in Delaware. Your backyard is something you can possibly change. Unions aren’t exactly on the run here, but I’d have a tough time saying that they were committed to much that might count as progressive politics.
Here is another great article about the liberals that appeared in Harper’s last year — The Vanishing Liberal — How the Left Learned to Be Helpless. It is a long piece, that makes many of the same points as the NYT one, but goes further in looking at how liberals came to sideline themselves.
Like ministers bought off by Bush for faith based initiatives, the Labor unions have also been bought off. If you look at Delaware a blue state, but still a right to work state you have to wonder what the union leadership in this State is thinking. Sam Latham isn’t the smartest bolt in the box and gives a speech thinking thats all thats necessary. There is no organizing, mobilizing of the union membership in this state who always deliver their workers and campaign funds to democrats who once in office never try to overturn this right to work state.