Monday Open Thread [12.12.11]

Filed in National by on December 12, 2011

Drive-Thru Rochester from Rochester Subway on Vimeo.

A new University of Iowa Hawkeye poll shows Newt Gingrich leading among likely Iowa caucus-goers with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney 20%, Ron Paul at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Rick Perry at 8% and Rick Santorum at 5%. Meanwhile, a new American Research Group poll in Iowa finds Gingrich leading with 22%, followed by Romney and Paul at 17% each and Perry at 13%.

NBC/Marist also has polls out showing Newt crushing Romney in South Carolina and Florida. But these polls also show President Obama crushing Gingrich by 12 in Florida and by 4 in South Carolina. Yes, President Obama would win South Carolina if the election were held today.

I have never felt that this was going to be a close election. Contrary to my friend and colleague, Jason330, I have always felt Obama was going to be reelected rather easily, more akin to the 1996 Clintonian relection, rather than the nailbiting 2004 Bushian reelection. If the numbers in the NBC/Marist poll are right, than Obama is heading for a 1984 Reagan reelection. He might lose Utah, but that’s it.

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  1. Jason330 says:
    December 12, 2011 at 12:05 pm

    That $10,000 bet compilation is brutal.

  2. socialistic ben says:
    December 12, 2011 at 12:07 pm

    I still hold on to my prediction that the GOP and their news organization will get it’s message in order in tim to tell the voters who they support. I bet Gingrich wins Iowa…. but by “not enough to have a decisive victory. Once Romney squeakes out NH, that’ll be it. The mighty Gringrich Surge will be over…. i bet they shrug off Newt’s wins in SC and Florida. Remember when they (media) tried to hand the nomination to Obama after his NH second place loss? (still very happy he beat Hillary and Palin, but that doesn’t mean i didn’t see through MSNBC’s pathetic attempt to cover up their clear favor of him)
    I think right now the GOP is fighting with itself. their administrative arm wants Romney, but their PR arm (fox) wants Newt… Newt will be better for tv ratings and much more profitable. The GOP has forced itself to decide between making some quick money, and Power…. it’s awesome.

  3. puck says:
    December 12, 2011 at 12:18 pm

    I just found out about this and signed up for the mailing list. It will be interesting to see what I get:

    Mission Statement

    The mission of the Senate Democratic Steering and Outreach Committee is to build support for Democratic policy positions. We do this by:

    – Creating dialogue and relationships between the Democratic Caucus and community leaders;
    – Communicating and promoting Democratic policy priorities; and
    – Ensuring coordination and amplification of the Democratic message.

    Coons and Carper are both members.

    It’ll be interesting to see how Senator Coons works this in with his bipartisan outreach.

  4. puck says:
    December 12, 2011 at 2:13 pm

    The streets are coming alive. Various reports indicate Occupy protesters have shut down the Port of Oakland and are making headway in Long Beach and Oakland.

    In NYC, groups are protesting at Goldman Sachs, where NYPD is confiscating live streaming video equipment. I find this part most disturbing.

    I think every cell phone and smartphone needs a one-touch panic button that will begin streaming video, audio, still photos, or whatever it’s got to a secure remote server, or even a damn answering machine tape.

    Let’s see if these reports are confirmed as the day goes on.

  5. socialistic ben says:
    December 12, 2011 at 2:29 pm

    puck, given all the tech savvy brain power in Occupy, m sure before too long, there will be “an app for that” might be one of those viral ones you have to hack your phone for…. but id get it. Heck, a “live stream to youtube” where the content cant be erased… that is a dangerous resource….. and i mean dangerous to the powers.

  6. Jason330 says:
    December 12, 2011 at 2:43 pm

    There is a great story on TPM about how Newt spoke to a New Hampshire paper as “a senior aid to Newt Gingrich.” The story is awesome, but I especially liked this comment:

    Nothing to see here. Only Newt Gingrich is remotely qualified to be Newt Gingrich’s aide, let alone a senior aide. No one else would possibly be in a position to understand Newt Gingrich’s awesome vision, his boundless potential and his utter centrality to the continued existence of civilization.

    Seriously, you want to put all that on the shoulders of some career political hack? Please. Churchill, Lincoln, and MAYBE Charlemagne. This is the complete list of people in the last two millennia qualified to fetch coffee for Newt Gingrich’s aide Newt Gingrich.

    Incidentally, this is why his campaign seems so understaffed. It’s actually got about 50,000 full-time employees and volunteers in each of the major primary states; it’s just that Gingrich himself is the only person qualified for most of those positions.

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