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A new University of Iowa Hawkeye poll shows Newt Gingrich leading among likely Iowa caucus-goers with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney 20%, Ron Paul at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Rick Perry at 8% and Rick Santorum at 5%. Meanwhile, a new American Research Group poll in Iowa finds Gingrich leading with 22%, followed by Romney and Paul at 17% each and Perry at 13%.
NBC/Marist also has polls out showing Newt crushing Romney in South Carolina and Florida. But these polls also show President Obama crushing Gingrich by 12 in Florida and by 4 in South Carolina. Yes, President Obama would win South Carolina if the election were held today.
I have never felt that this was going to be a close election. Contrary to my friend and colleague, Jason330, I have always felt Obama was going to be reelected rather easily, more akin to the 1996 Clintonian relection, rather than the nailbiting 2004 Bushian reelection. If the numbers in the NBC/Marist poll are right, than Obama is heading for a 1984 Reagan reelection. He might lose Utah, but that’s it.
