Wednesday Open Thread [1.11.12]
We apologize for not having an open thread during the horrible evil Denial of Service attack yesterday. You will never know what compilation of polling goodness, wits and wisdoms I had planned to post. Oh well.
So Mitt Romney won New Hampshire, so what’s next?
NATIONAL (CBS News): Romney 19, Gingrich 15, Santorum 14, Paul 10, Perry 6, Huntsman 4
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 30, Santorum 18, Gingrich 17, Paul 13, Perry 6, Huntsman 1
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Romney 27, Gingrich 16, Santorum 16, Paul 12, Perry 6, Huntsman 2
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Romney 36, Gingrich 24, Santorum 16, Paul 10, Perry 5, Huntsman 2
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Romney 36, Gingrich 25, Santorum 17, Paul 7.
SOUTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 30, Gingrich 23, Santorum 19, Paul 9, Perry 5, Huntsman 4, Roemer 1
You want to travel into the future to see how this all plays out (at least according to Booman’s predictions), well here you go:
January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus) – Santorum (Bachmann drops out)
January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary) – Romney
January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary)- Gingrich (Perry drops out)
January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)- Romney (Santorum drops out)
February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)- Paul (Huntsman drops out)
February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)- Romney
February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus)- Paul
Minnesota (caucus)- Romney
February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)- Romney
Michigan (primary)- RomneyWinner-Take-All takes over
March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)- Romney
March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus)- Paul
Georgia (primary)- Gingrich
Idaho (caucus)- Paul
Massachusetts (primary)- Romney
North Dakota (caucus)- Romney
Ohio (primary)- Romney
Oklahoma (primary)- Gingrich
Tennessee (primary)- Gingrich
Vermont (primary)- Romney
Virginia (primary)- Paul
March 6-10, 2012 Wyoming (caucus)- Paul
March 10, 2012 Kansas (caucus)- Romney
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)- Romney
March 13, 2012 Alabama (primary)- Gingrich
Hawaii (caucus)- Romney
Mississippi (primary)- Gingrich
March 17, 2012 Missouri (caucus) – Romney
March 20, 2012 Illinois (primary)- Romney
March 24, 2012 Louisiana (primary)- Gingrich
April 3, 2012 District of Columbia (primary)- Romney
Maryland (primary)- Romney
Wisconsin (primary)- Romney
Texas (primary)- Romney (Gingrich drops out)
April 24, 2012 Connecticut (primary)- Romney
Delaware (primary)- Romney
New York (primary)- Romney
Pennsylvania (primary)- Romney
Rhode Island (primary)- Romney
May 8, 2012 Indiana (primary)- Romney
North Carolina (primary)- Romney
West Virginia (primary)- Romney
May 15, 2012 Nebraska (primary)- Romney
Oregon (primary)- Romney
May 22, 2012 Arkansas (primary)- Romney
Kentucky (primary)- Romney
June 5, 2012 California (primary)- Romney
Montana (primary)- Romney
New Jersey (primary)- Romney
New Mexico (primary)- Romney
South Dakota (primary)- Romney
June 26, 2012 Utah (primary)- RomneyThe only way I see things going worse than this for Romney is if he can’t win Florida. If he loses both South Carolina and Florida, then is defeated in Nevada, we could have a brokered convention. But the chances are really remote.
Again, this isn’t my prediction. It’s likely that Romney will have much smoother sailing than this.
I think Perry will do better than expected in South Carolina, which might keep him in for another round. Not sure who he takes votes from in SC, probably Santorum.
Who knew that there were republicans in the Virgin Islands. You learn something new every day.
Clearly the “free thinkers” are falling in line. I can see quite a few Ron Paul supporters going to Obama before they go to Romney. MOstly because, based on what ive seen first hand, and in news/print, Paul supporters dont really understand who they are supporting. The THINK they do, but than get hit with an wnti-choice pro-mad max racist.
Im willing to bet (not 10k) that Romney doesn’t lose another primary. The GOP establishment has chosen their John Kerry and are hoping that in 4 years, someone will be ready to go. Look for a young up and coming republican to make a “good” speech at the convention.
The GOP base thinks that Obama is so hated by Americans that they could nominate Romney and win. I think they are watching too much Fox News, but we live in the days of Super Pacs funded by wingnut zillionaires so anything is possible.
Both major political parties hate voters and love money. The money primary is all that counts and Romney is winning that, hands down.
Delaware should be the first primary, sez he:
http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2012/01/delaware-should-be-the-first-state.html
The guy crunched the numbers and you can’t argue with science.
Mike Castle is tanned and rested!
Please read DSEA Prez Frederika Jenner’s blog post “Goodnight Moon” on her blog Does Experience Count. Can’t post link from this phone. It’s really powerful.
@Mike Matthews–
I’ve known Mrs. Jenner for 30+ years. She was a big (in every possible meaning of the word) “Save The Whales” enthusiast in the ’70s & she was on the front lines of the strike when deseg hit & city teachers were being paid more than their suburban counterparts. I have vivid memories of her picketing in front of William C. Lewis (formerly Cool Springs) School in the fall of 1978.
Mrs. Jenner is an amazing teacher! Her classes were always engaging, interesting & different from most of my elementary school teachers. They were FAR different from her colleagues, most of whom were drones coasting to retirement , Affirmative Action hires who were totally unqualified to teach (perhaps one of the reasons for the strike) or idiots trying to teach elementary school students as if they were cadets in the Delaware National Guard. (Yes, Morelli, I’m talking about you! Shame on you for beating 3rd grade students in the ass w/ your pointer and/or meter stick!)
My only “problem” w/ Jenner is her position as DSEA President. The union President is charged w/ protecting ALL union members. There are a LOT of crappy DSEA members. These losers need to RETIRE, QUIT, or learn how to teach effectively. Mrs. Jenner can give them an education in EFFECTIVE TEACHING…she’s a fantastic teacher!