Post hoc ergo propter hoc

Post hoc ergo propter hoc, Latin for “after this, therefore because of this,” is a logical fallacy that states, “Since that event followed this one, that event must have been caused by this one.”

I was reminded of this scene and this principle when reading of a tragedy in the News Journal this morning:

A 19-year-old Stanton woman, killed early Saturday in a one-car crash near New Castle that also injured her two passengers, was described by friends as a positive, caring person.

The victim, identified as Anna Marie Silva, of the 2200 block of East Huntington Drive in the Pinecrest community, was not wearing her seat belt. Family members said Silva would not wear her seat belt after a cousin died while wearing one. […] Twelve years ago, a cousin who was wearing a seat belt was killed in a crash that cut off his circulation, she said. After his death, Silva never believed that seat belts save lives and didn’t wear one when driving.

We are not given any further details about the prior incident twelve years ago, but it is safe to say that all seat belts don’t kill when you are in a crash. And we don’t know that a seat belt is what directly killed Ms. Silva’s cousin, but that it appeared to be the cause. Ms. Silva’s death is a tragic example of Post Hoc. May she rest in peace.