Every Nominee Has a “Near-Death” Experience, but this is Ridiculous
No candidate can win the nomination of either party without suffering a near death experience, a moment when the campaign suffers what appears to be a substantial if not fatal setback that would doom other less worthy campaigns. John McCain suffered his near death experience in the Summer of 2007 when he was last in the polls and losing money to such an extent that he shed his entire campaign organization. For Obama, given the protacted and epic battle against Hillary Clinton, he had two: Jeremiah Wright and the “Cling to their guns” gaffe. Bill Clinton also had two: Gennifer Flowers and the draft dodging revelations, but he was lucky enought for them to happen at the same time. George W. Bush losing New Hampshire to McCain was his near death experience. Papa Bush and Reagan lost Iowa.
Mitt Romney’s near death experience appeared to be his loss of South Carolina. At that moment, everything was conspiring against him. Rick Perry had dropped out and endorsed Gingrich, who surged to the front of all polls everywhere, including in Florida. It was during that weekend that Romney also found out that he lost Iowa after all, meaning that Romney, the already crowned nominee, had lost two of the first three contests and was in danger of losing Florida and the rest. Obituaries were being written of his campaign, including by me.
And then Mitt Romney unleashed the Super PAC dogs, and literally destroyed Newt Gingrich, and then smashed the remnants of Newt Gingrich into its component atoms. Because of Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich is a candidate who is dead but doesn’t know it, a reality confirmed last night. For his part, Mitt Romney went onto to win Florida and Nevada in convincing fashion, albeit the low turnout and low enthusiasm of the Republican primary voter was a concern that would dog his campaign into the general election, as would his epically and toxically low favorable and hig unfavorable numbers. Still, Romney was again the juggernaut. Unbeatable, especially by any of the three dwarfs running against him.
And then last night happened.
Santorum swept all three contests last night. He won Colorado 40-35 over Mitt. He won Minnesota 45-27 over Ron Paul. Mitt Romney, the presumptive nominee came in third with 17%!!! of the vote. And Santorum won the non binding primary in Missouri 55% to 25% over Romney.
What caused last night was not a specific scandal or gaffe. Republican primary voters just do not like, or outright hate, Mitt Romney, and they have been looking for any credible alternative to him for months. Which is why the Republican primary contest has had such a fickle and zig zag nature to it.
Nothing is going to change how Republican primary voters feel about Mitt Romney. Romney can do nothing to make these voters love him. All he can do now is destroy Rick Santorum as he destroyed Newt Gingrich, and in so doing, make himself even more unliked by everyone everywhere than he already is.
And chances are, he will succeed. I will bet everything that Mitt Romney is still going to be the nominee of the Republican, but he will be the most reviled and hated nominee of any party since…. since…. Herbert Hoover in 1932?
I was so surprised by these results. I was sure Romney would win one of these. You’re right, DD, Republicans can’t stand him.
So… while I agree that he’ll be the nominee, I question if Republicans will rally around him in the general. If he wins, then the Tea Party will lose influence and have to shut up for 4 years, but if he loses their “not conservative enough” mantra reignites.
awesome piece, DD. I really havent given the GOP voters enough credit. I honestly thought they would stiffen up and do what they were told. I still think they will in November. However, they arent exactly trying to keep this family feud quiet.
Something else interesting…. Mitt Romney is a victim of the age of youtube. 20 (possibly even 10) years ago, all of his hypocrisies and previous flip flops, while still on the public record, wouldn’t have been as accessible. Now, he can say one thing, and whomever can instantly access him taking the opposite side of the same issue. Obama plays the 21st century “everything you have ever said, or will ever say is on record” game very well…. he’s probably the first politician of the 21st century who really knows how it works. NONE of the republicans do.
In any case, yesterday was a very good day to be a progressive.
Since Hubert Humphrey. Tampa is going to be the Republicans version of Chicago 1968.
Was Hubert personally unliked? Yeah, the Dems in general were tarnished by Chicago, and were as disliked in 1968 as the GOP was in 2008 and now. But Hubert, the happy warrior, did pretty well for himself in the 1968 election and almost won.
I cant see the “not conservative enough” line working this time… not like it did in 2010. The reason MItt will lose in the general is because he has had to pretend to be “conservative enough”
Not to say they wont try…. it’ll just push them further into Whig territory. I was watching Morning Joe this morning. (i was feeling a little ill, and hoped Mika would help me vomit and get on with my day) Pat Toomey was on talking about the GOP strategy in november…. he mentioned holding the House, and making a big play for the senate… and that was it. He didnt mention a big WH win…. i think the congressional campaign committee for the R’s have already given up on the presidency.
SB – No, the not conservative enough meme will absolutely work on Romney, and probably would work on Gingrich. The reason that Mitt hasn’t already won is because all of the tea-partiers think that he is secretly a liberal that just mouths the words they want to hear.
They even say that W wasn’t conservative enough if you corner them.
lemmie rephrase. It will work for them to a degree. It will be a line repeated on Fox and AM radio. the real hard core Reflublickers will buy it. I dont think it will work with the masses like it did last time. FINALLY we have a solid definition of what conservative is…. and by solid definition, i mean one so simple and easy, EVERYONE can understand it.
No longer is “conservatism” some vague idea about saving more money, and family values, and other Christy sounding bumper stickers…. thanks to SGK and PropH8, conservatism is denying rights to people because of religious ideology while protecting rich people who made their money by not being very good Christians. It is running for office based on an erection for the Constitution, and then taking the Constitution and …… you get the picture.
These past 3 years havent been the South Rising again as i feared… they are… to borrow words from the Dark One the “last throws” of this insurgency called Conservatism.
A case could be made that American conservatism is dying because it has accomplish all of its goals. Tax Cuts ubber alles, and where can you really go after the “Citizens United” decision? Everything else is epilogue.
they even say that W wasn’t conservative enough if you corner them.”
This is because the usual excuse of blaming a Democratic Congress was unavailable, so they had to go to Excuse B, even if it meant throwing their own conservative hero under the bus. It is how they justify the failure of Bush’s conservative policies.
Conversely, they will not give Clinton’s economic plan credit for creating prosperity and balancing the budget, giving the credit to Newt instead. Funny that now they won’t even vote for Newt, the man (they say) balanced the budget.
The more I think about this, the more I don’t get it. When Kerry beat Dean I wasn’t happy about it, but I can admit that I hated Bush as much as today’s Republicans seem to hate Obama. Getting rid of Bush was a superordinate goal for me that allowed me to say, okay…I don’t like Kerry, but I get that he is the nominee.
What are the Republicans thinking? The only shot they have is to get behind Romney, and that is a pretty slim shot at that.
Dean’s supporters did not insist on capitulation to certain ideas and principles as the Not Romney supporters are. Dean’s supporters bowed to the business of electability and forever gave up on much of a chance to influence Kerry at all.
The difference is between “anybody but Bush” vs. “the most conservative standard-bearer ever”. Because the delusion that a winning GOP candidate has to be more conservative than Bush is strong with these people.
I think at the beginning of the primary, Republicans were locked into their RWNJ drive to find the most conservative possible candidate, which they deluded themselves into believing would be the most electable (see: Perry, Bachmann). But once the primaries got under way, retail politics and massive TV advertising took over, and voters fragmented and forgot the “most conservative” rule. Which is how they ended up with McCain, and how they will end up with Romney. And that will drive them nuts when it happens.
When Obama wins we will have four more years Repubs saying “Romney wasn’t conservative enough.” I guess that will spur the emergence of already right-wing Congressmen reaching a new level of evil even further to the right.
But in that stridency, they are essentially saying, “President Obama is better than a imperfectly conservative Republican.” Either that or they are saying, “I don’t understand politics and reality. I want the universe to bend to conform to my warped sensibilities.”
I guess it is the later.
I don’t think the Republican upper echelons (or the apolitical 1%) is all that uncomfortable with the idea of four more years of Obama.
But I think they ARE a little uncomfortable with the excesses of the tea party nuts and the renewed VRWC (i.e., Koch brothers).
If half the stuff I have been reading about Koch-fueled Wisconsin Republicans is true, they should all go down on RICO charges.
It is the later, really. Fed and nurtured by the Koch Brothers set who are bound and determined to get the government to shovel as much tax money into their pockets as possible. They’ve convinced the teajadi morons that giving taxpayer funds to businesses = free market capitalism.
Humphrey was well liked by the old guard, but the McGovern & McCarthy faction of the party didn’t trust him. Also, George Wallace was running a legitimate 3rd party campaign. If Wallace hadn’t run, Humphrey probably would have eked out an Electoral College victory. Actually, HHH’s campaign was the first one I ever volunteered for (I was 10), stuffing envelopes and doing lit drops in my neighborhood. I wore so many HHH campaign buttons to school each day that I made Idi Amin look like a corporal.
The Colorado caucus returns are interesting. Santorum ran very well in the teabag parts of the state (Eastern Plains and Colorado Springs), but he also took Mesa County (Grand Junction) which is more fiscal conservative/social moderate GOP territory. He also ran a very close second in Jefferson County (just west of Denver), which, while home to the Coors family, has become more Democrat over the past 4 election cycles and in Denver, which is very moderate GOP. And Rmoney won Douglas County, which is quickly becoming teabag central in the Denver-metro area.
I feel like the reality show I love to hate has been renewed for another season. We still have to wait until Feb 22 for the next debate and Feb 28 for the next votes. Good news for Santorum, who can ride his sweep for 2 weeks. Bad for Santorum, Romney is going to open his wallet to attack him. Pass the popcorn, please.