Tom Carper (D-Delaware of the 1980’s)
One frequently heard refrain around the liberal blogosphere is “[fill in the blank with name of Democratic congressperson who voted the wrong way on the important legislation of the day] is a bad Democrat; let’s primary him!”
Well, how do you know who really is a good or bad Democrat? David Jarman at Daily Kos took the time to quantify who is a good or bad based upon a combination of the Partisan Voting Index and some congressional ranking services (in this case, Progressive Punch, the National Journal, and DW/Nominate, that determine who is the most liberal or conservative members of Congress based on their votes.
[These rankings] do provide a helpful tool; by combining them with information about how their state or district has voted in recent years, we can analyze whether a congressperson is performing in line with how you’d expect him or her to, given their constituents. In other words, how “valuable” are they, or how good a “fit” are they, given the kind of district they have to work with? [..]
“Most congresspersons, in fact, do perform about how you’d expect, but it’s the ones who don’t who are the interesting ones and deserving more of our attention. We can use this method to spot Democrats who are underperforming their districts and might benefit from a primary challenge to straighten up or get out; we can also use it as a means of finding below-the-radar Democrats who are voting more liberally than their districts would warrant, and giving them some encouragement. It can also help us spot potentially vulnerable Republicans, the wingnuts hidden in swing districts whose records provide ample ammunition for a general election attack.”
So what did Jarman find?
Let’s use the example of Carper, who’s the most underperforming Democrat according to DW/Nominate scores. He’s in Delaware, which has a PVI of D+7.0, making it the 10th most liberal state. [..] Carper has a DW/Nominate score of -0.189, which makes him the 50th most liberal senator (meaning the only Democrats trailing him are Claire McCaskill, Joe Manchin and Ben Nelson, each of whom has a much tougher state to work with). Find the difference between the PVI ranking (19.5) and the Vote ranking (50), and, voila, you come up with a PVI/Vote Index score of -30.5.
That means that Carper is not representing his constituents with his votes. He is voting as if he represented a more conservative state like Missouri or West Virginia or Nebraska. Delaware is a liberal state now, and most definitely a deep blue Democratic one, much to the chagrin of those Delaware Way-ers who like to say it is a moderate or a fiscal conservative state. Therefore, what these numbers reflect is that Tom Carper is stuck in the past, representing the state as it was thirty years ago. But times have changed, and what this study is saying is that Tom Carper is vulnerable to a good primary challenge.
The only problem is, of course, there is no Democrat willing to take him on. And I assume that will remain true up to and past the filing deadline on July 10. Carper will then handidly defeat Kevin Wade in the fall and we will be stuck with him for another six years. A square Democrat trying to fit in a round state.
So he’s voting based on the voters in his native state.. not his home state.
2 words….. and i hope he’s reading…
Senator Kowalko
But Carper’s Bipartisan Index is 100%!
Kowalko was doing great til he screwed the double dipping legislation. Rumored to be due to his own self intrest.
not familiar with that.
It’s a progressive pipe dream, yes…. but in order to primary carper, you need someone with name recognition, who can excite a base (which Kowalko has), and most of all, is NOT in the carper/biden delaware way frat. Is there anyone else who can meet those criteria?
“Kowalko was doing great til he screwed the double dipping legislation. Rumored to be due to his own self intrest.”
He’s retired from the Delaware City refinery, so where’s the self-interest?
That said, he’s not going to run for Senate. Karen Peterson would have a much better shot at both running and winning.
Nobody will primary him. But if we keep attacking his conservatism, it will eventually catch up to him.
With no primary challenger on the horizon, I seriously think it is time for “Democrats for Kevin Wade”
Granted, Wade is a most odious and vile teabagger – but I don’t see Carper giving a flying fuck about progressive votes until he gets hurt by their absence on election day.
Jason, no. I wannot have an odios teabagger in office for 6 years. I don’t play games with that, especially this year when it will be tough to hold the Senate.
Just putting it out there. If someone else has an idea about how to capture Carper’s attention (that does not invlove writting a Super Pac check for $500,000) I’m all ears.
In the meantime, I don’t think that there is a chance in hell that Wade could win, so I’m voting for him.
Not a good idea, Jason. If Carper wins with less than 60 percent of the vote, he’ll tilt even farther to the right.
Our only hope with Carper is that he wins the election,realizes he’s in his last term, rediscovers his Democratic conscience and votes that way because he no longer needs campaign contributions from the banking and pharmaceutical industries. (That’s a lot of ifs — probably too many to have a chance of fulfillment, but I fear that it’s all we’ve got.)
Bullshit and fairy-dust. That’s what your comment amounts to. Carper will move farther to the right? Sure. Let’s operate out of a fear of that happening. /snark.
…in his last term he’ll rediscover his Democratic conscience…
Oh my sides… Stop it.
Look. This is a two party system. When you can’t vote FOR someone – your moral obligation is to vote AGAINST someone. Int his case who do you want to vote against more. Wade, who has no shot in hell. Or Carper, who will be stung by not getting your automatic D vote.
Everything else is wishful thinking.
Jason, are you an American citizen over the age of 30 with a primary residence in Delaware?
I think carper would view a narrow victory as a referendum to be more conservative. He WANTS to be more conservative, so any excuse he can use right?
he MUST be primaried, or 3rd partied. If he JUST squeeks by the R and a solid 9-13% protest vote goes to… oh, i dont know Joe Cass, (hint hint) he’ll get the message… other than that, every vote for a republican will be a vote to BE a republican… even if the votes telling him do be a dem outnumber it.
There would be reason for anybody, least of all Carper, to read the results like that.
DE Idealist, I’d do it, except I’d do such a poor job that I’d discredit the idea of primarying Carper.
So you have more faith in Christine O’Donnell than yourself :p
touche
hold on jason…. Carper, who is so reticent to be a democrat in DELAWARE!!! (even after 2008 and 10) wouldnt think a strong showing by a republican is a “call for him to be more conservative?” id say the first thing he would do is formally switch parties. “OH MY! 41% of delawareians want a republican senator ITS A MAJORITY!!!… remember, he is in the senate where it’s crazy land and anything more than 39% is a crushing majority to the 51%.
no… the protest votes against carper need to go to a progressive cause or he’ll be the first to sign on to Obama’s impeachment proceedings. (which im assuming will be the first thing the R’s do in 2013…. you know, jobs and all)
I don’t know…I’m a pretty far left liberal philosophically, but appreciate the need for moderation and bipartisanship in practicality. This same far-left state also voted in moderate R Mike Castle year after year, and kept Bill Roth in office forever.
Perhaps its the way our small state works — we keep people in office who can keep the balance so we don’t end up being run by the nutjobs.
Carper’s voting record would be far worse without the filibuster rules, which allow him to happily vote Yes for bills he opposes, knowing full well they won’t get 60 votes.
When the House was Democratic, Carper had to spend hundreds of hours in committee working to dilute and Republicanize Democratic bills, and then vote Yes on them. Now the bills come pre-Republicanized so he doesn’t have to work so hard.
If you think Carper needs a wake up call, “like” my comment on his face book page:
http://www.facebook.com/#!/tomcarper
On second thought, don’t do that. Reading through his facebook comments, it is clear that commenting on his facebook page is reserved for cranks and nutbags.
http://www.facebook.com/groups/180426705399211/188164737958741/
Green Party Challenge from someone named Andrew Groff?
The Democratic primary is the election in Delaware now, so I can’t change my registration to Green – but I’d vote for this guy as a protest vote in the general.
Jason330 “On second thought, don’t do that. Reading through his facebook comments, it is clear that commenting on his facebook page is reserved for cranks and nutbags”
ahem….
Just so you know, I’m not unaware of the existential pickle that I put myself in.
Do existential pickles go well with Zen burgers?
Im still playing ketchup. But you seem to be relishing this.
That was cheesy and not kosher