Today begins the Supreme Court’s nearly unprecedented three days of oral arguments on the constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Given Commerce Clause precedent and caselaw going back to at least the mid 1930’s, the Obamacare law should be upheld as constitutional. But you never know with conservative activist judges.
Without exaggeration, it could be the most important pronouncement on the federal “safety net” since the Social Security Act was upheld by the Court in 1937. Without exaggeration, a decision to strike down all or part of the new health law could be the most severe rebuff of Congress’s power over the national economy since the Sick Chicken Case in 1935. And, without exaggeration, a nullification of the Act in whole or in part could be the most devastating blow to presidential power and prestige since the Steel Seizure Case in 1952.