Romney vs Obama – The Tale of the Tape
Romney:
1) Willingness to lie his ass off. I would say that this is more than a willingness, it is an eagerness. Romney will literally say anything to get elected. This can work against him in some ways, but it is certainly something that the GOP’s spin doctors can work with. (See strength #2)
2) Access to billions of dollars. Not just his own, but thanks to ‘Citizens United’ he and his surrogats can pour previously unheard of cash in to this campaign. [ Money + Willingness to outright lie = momentum.] The coarse mathmatics of negative campaigning works in an underdogs favor. He can put the President on the defensive, and minimize his strengths.
3) He is the underdog. The press loves a horse race, so the fact that he is currently trailing in the polls turns every story into a “comeback kid” story. It gives the lazy media a dramatic arc.
4) “He looks Presidential.” I’m pretty sure when Republicans say this they mean, “He is white.” When the media repeats it, they are talking about the fact that he looks like Presidents used to look in movies before they started to be played by Morgan Freeman.
Obama:
1) Obama is the President of the United States. There are simply a lot of advantages that accrue to the incumbent. I’m not exactly sure what they are, but how else can anyone explain George Bush being re-elected?
2) Obama gets to run against a Republican and Republicanism in general. Republicans are deeply unpopular and have been hard at work trying to be less popular with each passing day. The Republican primary contest, George W. Bush, and the Republican Congress provide the President’s team with mountains of evidence that Republicans need to be kept as far away from the levers of power as possible.
3) The President is popular. This reality escapes Republicans who are absolutly convinced that Obama is the most hated person in America. (They keep saying it to each other so it must be true. That’s how “truth” works on the GOP side.)
4) Obama is 1-0 vs. Republicans in Presidential elections. Team Obama knows how to win. Granted his last win was against a weak John McCain who flubbed his first leadership test by picking and idiot for a running mate, but there is something to be said for having been in the big dance. There will be gaffes and goofs on both sides over the next seven months, and team Obama knows how to minimize theirs while maxing out their opponents.
I think Obama also has a common touch, or at least knows how to project one, that Romney simply lacks. I doubt you’ll hear the president talking about $10,000 side bets or referring to six-figure sums as walking-around money. What I see in Romney is a guy who’s never been in my shoes (because they cost less than $200) and can’t speak my language. He won’t advocate for me because he doesn’t understand me and has never attempted to.
I agree. That is part of the President’s durable popularity. Since most people vote for the guy they’d rather have a beer with, that will be a real strength.
When you think about it, the candidate with the common touch, that is the more likeable, usually wins.
I can think of a couple of modern elections where this was not the case: 1988, where both Dukakis and Bush were aloof and socially awkward, and 1968, where the dour and unlikeable Nixon defeated the always smiling Humphrey by a nose.
Since Carville/Clinton, conventional wisdom is that candidates have to maintain a war room to respond to every attack within hours (in the current news cycle).
I wonder if Obama needs to modify this strategy vs. Romney. The new reality though is the cable news cycle may be less important than in the past. Responding to every crazy attack might lend it more credibility than it deserves and support the creation of a false equality that hasn’t yet been created.
After all, Romney has a well-earned reputation for parroting far-right memes while obviously not really believing in them. The lack of integrity shines through. Since Romney has such a tin ear, it might be better for Obama to let him just twist in the wind after his out-of-touch attacks. The press and the public seem to be onto Romney this time.
Romney might not get any traction at all with negative ads, unless the President validates them by responding. And Romney’s negative carpet-bombing will seem like annoying spam and a sign of having too damn much money.
Of course, counter-attacking can still be done by surrogates (that’s us), whose job will be to mock Romney when his attacks make him sound like an out of touch one-percenter.
Obama could then spend his time looking presidential and decrying Romney’s negative campaign (although a stinging Obama one-liner once in a while would leave a mark). If Romney is forced into a feel-good positive campaign, he has no chance at all.
A great comeback (within the news cycle) would be. “The Predient does not believe that Governor Romney really believes ( x )”
It plays to the fraudulence that is Romney and makes Romney have to respond to the crazy bullshit his campaign puts out.
There is also a rich trove of video showing Mitt saying the opposite of just about anything.
None of which should underestimate the barrage of BS that is coming from Team Rmoney over the next months. And that barrage will be meant to drive up the President’s negatives which won’t change many minds (possibly independents) but to drive down enthusiasm. Just remember that the people behind this sold an entire country on the Iraq War and now they’ll have nearly unlimited money. That said, the McCain effort to drive up Obama’s negatives was specifically a failure, mainly because they went to places that Americans did not want to go AND the media called them out on it.
Another mike, I wonder how long it has been since president obama washed his clothes in the sink, or did his own laundry. Romney does not even have his aides help with laundry, he washes his own clothesin the sink, or at the hotels coin washing machines, often drying his sink washed shirts with the iron. But you just keep telling yourself barry and michelee are in touch with the common folks. Oh thats right, michelle has spent ten million of tax payer money on vacations with her friends, just like common folks
@Rd “Romney does not even have his aides help with laundry,”
Maybe that would spoil the magic in his underwear.
LOL… You post this tidbit like it’s a good thing. No. It just makes him look totally nuts.