Monthly Archives: May 2012

The Polling Report [5.31.12]

New polls in Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa, Nevada and Colorado show close races in four of the five states.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 45, Romney 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (YouGov/The Economist): Obama 46, Romney 43
MISSOURI–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 45, Romney 44

We forget how close Missouri was in 2008. This poll keeps Missouri as a Toss-up state.

WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT (Marquette Law School): Obama 51, Romney 43

This poll demotes Wisconsin from Strong Obama to Lean Obama. I have a feeling this state will facillate between the two all election, giving Republicans some false hope.

IOWA–PRESIDENT (NBC News / Marist): Obama 44, Romney 44
NEVADA–PRESIDENT (NBC News / Marist): Obama 48, Romney 46
COLORADO–PRESIDENT (NBC News / Marist): Obama 46, Romney 45

These three polls put these states in the toss up column. Nevada had been in the Lean Obama column, and Iowa had been in the Strong Obama column after the prior most recent polls respectively. The prior most recent poll out of Colorado was a four point lead for Obama.

So our new map:

The Electoral College Totals:

Obama — 298
Romney — 170
Toss Up — 70

MICHIGAN–SENATOR (PPP): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 37; Stabenow 53, Clark Durant (R) 31
NEW YORK–SENATOR (Quinnipiac): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 56, Robert Turner (R) 26; Gillibrand 57, George Maragos (R) 24; Gillibrand 58, Wendy Long (R) 24
OHIO–SENATOR (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 42
WASHINGTON–GOVERNOR (Strategies 360): Rob McKenna (R) 43, Jay Inslee (D) 39
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR (Lake Research for Greater Wisconsin): Tom Barrett (D) 49, Gov. Scott Walker (R) 49
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR (Marquette Law School): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 52, Tom Barrett (D) 45

Thursday Open Thread [5.31.12]

President Bush is back at the White House today for his official portrait unveiling. For anyone expecting fisticuffs or tension, don’t. This ceremony is now a Presidential tradition performed before between bitter political rivals.

Obama and Bush have a cordial and respectful relationship, but they are not close.

Both are political veterans who are able to separate political tactics from what they see as an overarching community among people who have served in the Oval Office, according to people close to them.

History has marked this moment before, with grudges put aside.

When Bill Clinton came back for his portrait unveiling, Bush lauded him for “the forward-looking spirit that Americans like in a president.” This after he ran for the presidency to “restore honor and dignity” after Clinton’s sex scandal.

And when Clinton welcomed back George H.W. Bush, whom he had defeated, he said to him and his wife: “Welcome home. We’re glad to have you here.”

Goliath Trying to Smite David. Get Out Your Slingshots.

In this case, Goliath= Rob Tunnell, Reybold Homes, and Rethuglican legislator Rep. Ruth Briggs King, among others.

David=The Delaware Manufactured Home Owners’ Association.

The issue? Whether the 30,000 to 45,000 Delawareans who reside in manufactured housing communities are to have ANY protection from the powerful development community.

For the uninitiated, let’s explain what we’re talking about and why it’s important. Rob Tunnell, through ‘Tunnell Companies, L. P.’, leases ground to tenants who situate their manufactured homes on that leased ground. The tenants pay Tunnell’s company rent on that ground to enable their families to live there. Tunnell, of course, is not the only owner of manufactured housing communities, but he’s perhaps the most egregious example of a powerful landlord seeking to screw his tenants.  Pot-Nets is Tunnell’s kingdom, described by him as:

A unique opportunity to retreat to a home in one of six scenic residential and recreational waterfront communities – at half the cost of site-built structures and subdivisions.

Manufactured homes are the essential component of Tunnell’s mix, and are described thusly by Tunnell:

The term “manufactured home” describes a house that is constructed in a factory to comply with strict building codes.

These codes regulate and ensure a high level of performance in the homes design and construction — including strength, durability, energy efficiency and safety. Every home is inspected at the factory for compliance with the code throughout the manufacturing process.

In a factory environment, all aspects of the construction process are controlled. The weather doesn’t interfere or cause delays, all workers are efficiently supervised and inventory expenses are secured. These efficiencies and savings are passed on to you, the homebuyer.

Today’s manufactured home is indistinguishable in quality and appearance from conventional site-built homes… at one-third to one-half of the cost! You will be able to select from a wide variety of architectural styles and interior designs, including floorplans, options and upgrades.

Tunnell then encourages readers to access the New Dimensions homesite, a company that sells manufactured homes and that, well, well, has the same address as Tunnell’s own company. Oh, and get this. New Dimensions charges a 10% commission on sales of homes on Tunnell properties. And, if you want to get a more reasonable realtor, you have to deal with 25 Del. C. 7022, which requires that the landlord ‘accepts’ the buyer as a new tenant. Wonder what’s the over/under on how many buyers pay a commission of less than 10%. I’m guessing zero.

So now, with the promise of beach area living with all the amenities, you’ve got a community of people who own manufactured housing purchased from Tunnell, utilizing realtors approved by Tunnell…on land owned by Tunnell.

By now, you can figure out the rest. These are permanent dwellings, and they are on land owned by Tunnell. All that is left is for Tunnell to try to squeeze every last cent out of the tenants, and to throw them off once someone or something more lucrative comes along. And here’s the point: These people have nowhere to go. Neither do their homes. They’re screwed, and Tunnell couldn’t care less. Read this court case for just one example of Tunnell’s chicanery.

Which is why some brave members of the Delaware General Assembly have tried to rein in Tunnell and his, wait for it, ilk. Sen. George Howard Bunting, who came into the General Assembly with a conscience and will leave the General Assembly with a conscience, has perhaps been the Patron Saint for these tenants, and has joined with Rep. Valerie Longhurst, Sen. Bruce Ennis, and Rep. John Kowalko, among others, to try to protect them from the avaricious overlords.

The cause of the tenants has been helped immeasurably by the Delaware Manufactured Home Owners’ Association, a tiny volunteer ‘kitchen table’ 501(c)3 not-for profit that so far has subsisted on table scraps. A $1400 grant-in-aid from the state, and the occasional small grant. That’s it.

Here’s where Goliath enters the picture. Although Tunnell and Reybold Homes, the company that manufactures Tunnell’s manufactured housing, have showered legislators with contributions and have virtually unlimited legislative access, that’s not enough for them. They must kill off the tiny thorn in their sides, the Delaware Manufactured Home Owners’ Association. It’s not enough for Tunnell’s underlings to intimidate residents who file complaints with DNREC or the police, no, they’ve got to squash the opposition. Their willing ally is Representative and ‘Realtor’ Ruth Briggs King (hmmm, wonder if she is one of Tunnell’s ‘approved’ realtors), who has demanded in a letter crafted by the Controller General’s office that this tiny kitchen table not-for-profit provide her with all of their tax information for  tax years 2009 and 2010. Never mind that the association is in full compliance with Federal Form 990, which is the proper tax form for charitable organizations of that size. A form, by the way, that is readily available to Briggs King and the public online. Ruth Briggs King wants more. But, of course, she doesn’t want more. She wants to bury this volunteer organization in so much paperwork that they’ll have no choice but to give up the fight. People ask why I use the term Rethuglican. I only use it when an R behaves in a thuggish manner, which happens a lot. What Ruth Briggs King has done defines the term ‘Rethuglican’. Destroy the defenseless on behalf of the greedy economic overlords.

This is where the slingshots come in. One way that landlords exploit the defenseless is by raising rates at levels far above what normal people would consider reasonable. Legislators have had the same difficulty dealing with this scourge as they have with designer drugs, b/c just as nobody can anticipate the next pharmaceutical ‘breakthough’, legislators have had difficulty in anticipating just what outrage the landlords might come up with next. So, they’ve done a lot of ‘reacting’.

SB 205(Ennis) seeks to keep the tenants at least even with Goliath. It would provide that, if an owner desires to raise the average rentals charged to homeowners in a manufactured home community more than the increase in the Consumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers for the preceding year, the owner must seek approval of the Governor’s Advisory Council on Manufactured Housing. The bill would enable the Council to consider information provided by the landlords that would warrant an increase above the increase in the CPI. The bill would essentially take the arbitrariness away that had enabled landlords to suddenly impose huge rent increases with no warning. In other words, this bill seeks to protect 30-45 thousand people who live in Delaware, and live in fear that they can be uprooted at any time. The landlords would still get their increases, they could even be higher than the CPI if they can justify them.

This bill passed the Senate with the bare minimum of 11 votes. I have been told that many senators considered this a ‘free’ vote b/c they think that it will not pass the House. They probably think that it (a) will not come to a vote; or (b) a killer amendment will be added. After all, you don’t have to kill Bambi, you just have to starve Bambi. The House has 26 D’s and 15 R’s. In other words, if Democrats truly represent a Democratic constituency, there’s no reason the bill can’t pass.

I urge you to notify your Democratic legislators and place them on notice (politely, of course): The Democratic Party that we identify with would not hesitate to protect the 30-45 thousand Delawareans being hounded by the greedy economic overlords.  We expect you to do the same. And don’t let them get away with the “It’s a well-intended bill, but…” line. Those are just weasel words for “We’re bought and paid for”.

Whether it’s your legislator’s sense of shame, conscience, dim recollection of what the Democratic Party once stood for, or their fear of being held accountable this November, your slingshots can help these representatives find the nerve to help David slay Goliath. Or, at least, to keep Goliath at bay. The Delaware Bay, that is.

TV Viewers Turn Off “Fox News Lite” In Droves

I don’t watch any TV news because if you know a little bit about what is going on, you know what complete garbage TV news has become. Seriously, if I happen to be in the same room as a TV tuned to say… ABC’s version of the evening news, I can’t make it two minutes before yell, “Way to quote “The Club for Growth” like it is a legitimate source you morons!” This is distracting to other TV watchers, who don’t know that ABC news is quoting right-wing press releases as though they landed some kind of scoop.

Some people I know used to watch CNN, but when ratings started to fall, CNN thought they’d retool as “the other Fox News” which was a f#cking stupid idea on so many levels. Now they are paying the price for that stupidity.

CNN Primetime Ratings Hit 20-Year Monthly Low

CNN hit a 20-year primetime ratings low in May, an expected dive for the cable news network after it posted its worst weekly ratings in two decades earlier in the month.

CNN had its lowest month primetime total viewers since October 1991. It also had its second lowest-rated month in more than 20 years in the 25-to-54 demographic most important to news advertisers.

via TPM

UPDATED: Moving School Board Elections To The General

After this last school board election I think I’m ready for this:

There is draft legislation, sponsored by Rep. Longhurst, that would align public school board elections with general elections.

SYNOPSIS

This bill will save the State of Delaware money by having school board elections on the date of the general election and it will increase the voter turnout for school board elections. Currently, school board elections are held on the second Tuesday of May and can occur in any year. The bill will: (1) set school board elections to coincide with the general election; (2) align the terms of school board members so their terms expire during a general election year; (3) provide that only registered voters can vote in school board elections; (4) place school board members on the ballot during the general election; and (5) provide that campaign finance laws apply to school board elections.

schoolboard3.docx schoolboard3.docx
69K  Download

Most of our readers know that I view school board elections as one of the most important elections in the state.  School boards have great and immediate impact on our lives.  They can improve or hurt our children’s education and property values by the way they treat the schools in our neighborhoods.

And given the nonsense surrounding this past election it might be time to stop pretending that school boards aren’t political.  They are.

I expect people will be split on this proposed legislation… bring it on.  There’s a debate to be had.

UPDATE: This just arrived in my inbox:

Delaware House of Representatives House Majority Caucus

For Immediate Release:                                                                                               Contact: Drew Volturo

May 31, 2012                                                                                                                      Work: (302) 744-4001

bill aligning school board elections with general elections unveiled

Longhurst: Bill would save state money, increase voter participation

DOVER – After years of dismally low voter turnout and just-completed school board elections continued that trend, House Majority Whip Rep. Valerie Longhurst unveiled legislation on Thursday that would align public school board elections with general elections.

House Bill 360 would eliminate the annual school board elections for the 16 school districts that elect board members. School board elections currently are held on the second Tuesday of May and can occur in any year. It is similar to legislation Rep. Longhurst introduced in 2009 that passed the House before stalling in the Senate.

“Year after year, we see less than 2 percent of voters actually vote in school board elections, while the state has to pay more than $100,000 to run these elections,” said Rep. Longhurst, D-Bear. “It’s disheartening that people largely don’t vote in school board elections, because school boards shape our children’s future. They are in charge of multi-million-dollar budgets, create educational policy, help develop curriculum and handle school discipline.

“By moving the school board races to Election Day, voter turnout will shoot up and hopefully those races will receive the same scrutiny as other elections.”

The state routinely spends more than $120,000 on school board elections that draw less than 2 percent of eligible voters. In 2011, 11,044 out of more than 565,000 eligible voters cast ballots in 13 school board elections. This year, 12,084 voted out of more than 435,000 in nine school board elections – a high-water mark in recent years, but still less than 3 percent turnout.

Rep. Longhurst said the separate school board elections produce a couple other logistical problems. Polls during school board elections are only open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m., while general election polls open at 7 a.m. Additionally, schools – which serve as polling places – are in session during school board elections. During general elections, schools are closed.

“School board elections by design limit participation. People with jobs can’t vote before they go to work because of the late opening, so they’re forced to either vote after work or not at all,” Rep. Longhurst said. “And you have adults entering school buildings while students are present, which creates another potential problem.”

Under HB 360, May school board elections would be phased out over several years until 2016, when school board elections would take place entirely on Election Day. Board terms, which vary in length, would be a uniform four years in all districts. Polls for school board elections would be open the same as general elections, three hours longer than they currently are open. Doing so would save the state from having to mobilize poll workers, voting machines and running up to 16 separate elections on the same day, which amounts to a statewide election.

Additionally, the bill would change who is eligible to vote in school board elections. Currently, anyone can vote in a school board race for the district in which they live. HB 360 would require the resident to be a registered voter. Any resident, regardless of whether they are registered, would continue to be able to vote in other school elections, such as consolidation, division or change of boundaries.

The bill also would provide that campaign finance laws apply to school board elections.

Senate Majority Leader Sen. Patricia Blevins is the Senate prime sponsor of the legislation.

“There are fewer elected positions more important to our children and our community than the positions on our school boards,” said Sen. Blevins, D-Elsmere. “School board members make all of the local decisions about our schools, and yet very few people participate in electing them. By moving these elections to November, we will dramatically increase voter participation in deciding who will serve and, while doing so, we will highlight the importance of serving on the school board. This can only result in better public schools for our children.”

Rep. Longhurst noted that legislators opposing her bill in 2009 stated that keeping school board elections separate from the general election prevented them from becoming political. During the just-completed school board elections, concerns arose about mailings from outside groups being sent to households in the Christina and Red Clay school districts.

“We just saw an election in which outside groups spent thousands of dollars and sent mailers on behalf of candidates to win ‘nonpolitical,’ volunteer positions,” Rep. Longhurst said. “These seats already are political to some degree. We should not be making excuses that prevent us from saving the state money and driving up voter turnout.”

According to the National School Board Association, school districts in at least 14 states hold school board elections on Election Day. In a 2010 NSBA survey, 53 percent of superintendents surveyed indicated that “in their districts, school board elections are always held on the same day as national or state elections.”

HB 360 will be formally filed when the House reconvenes on June 5.

Crane by a wide margin over KWS; Voters not fooled by McDowell machinations.

What, no spamming by KWS supporters and McDowell minions? In a non scientific non random poll of our readers, Mitch Crane is vanquishing the incumbent insurance commissioner 66% to 25%. And it would only a few people are being fooled by the candidacies of Dennis Spivack and Paul Gallagher, much to Harris McDowell’s chagrin, no doubt.

If the election were held today, who are you voting for in the Democratic Primary for Insurance Commissioner?

Mitch Crane — 107 — 66%
Karen Weldin Stewart — 41 — 25%
Dennis Spivack — 7 — 4%
Paul Gallagher — 6 — 4%

Total Votes: 161. Started: May 29, 2012

The Kill List Petition.

I am passing this on from one of readers.

I don’t know what all your positions are on this matter. I have very strong opinions on this drone campaign and I was wondering if, in the liberal spirit of the great dissenters, you post a link to this petition on the White House web site. Would your editorial staff support this. Would you persuade your readers to sign?

Here is the link to the petition.

First, to say we have an editorial staff would imply that we pay people to edit DL. Jason still owes us all checks from 2006. I’d rather call the 9 or 10 of us freelance volunteers.

Second, I don’t know where all of my peers here at DL stand on this, but I for one do encourage everyone to sign it. And I say that not as a wide eyed purist who is criticizing the President because I didn’t get my single issue pony. The area where Obama has let us liberals down the most is in the area of civil liberties. While he ended outright torture by our own government, and while he has tried to shut down Guantanamo but was stopped by Congress, but this Kill List with no oversight or due process is a tad bit far for even my pragmatic and practical tastes.

As a liberal I am perfectly fine with the President ordering the deaths of foreign terrorists on foreign soil. And those deaths can be accomplished by sniper rifle, drone bombing or archery for all I care. These are foreign enemies who have attacked us and they deserve whatever fate befalls them.

But such actions, and such weaponry cannot be used against American citizens on foreign soil. Especially when the action is taken without any due process or oversight, with the only thing standing between you and death is the moral compass and feelings of one man, the President of the United States. Seriously, if you happen to get on this Kill List as an American citizen, the only thing that may save your life is the compassion of the President. Here’s hoping you get consideration on a good day.

Now, you can argue that an American citizen would only get on this Kill List if he was a terrorist who has turned against us and is fighting with the enemy. Perhaps. What if a mistake was made? There are thousands of stories of mistaken identities being made on the “Do Not Fly” list. What if a mistake is made on the Do Kill List. Your only recourse, while dodging a drone, is the good graces of one man.

More to the point, if an American citizen is on the list, arguably and allegedly he is a traitor. Why do we have the crime of treason if traitors are to be denied due process and killed instantly?

But the main reason I oppose the Kill List with no oversight with respect to American citizens is the precedent it sets. We have Republican Governors like Bob McConnell of Virginia already wanting to have drones operate stateside. It is not hard to imagine in a few years American citizens being gunned down in the streets by mindless drones on the orders of one man.

Now, President Obama is a good man of moral character. Supporters of his can say he will never do that.

Well, he shouldn’t have the option.

Because his successors may not be good men and women, especially if they are Republicans.

So, all of you, sign the petition.

We know have a fourth choice [NCCo. Exec]

And some of you are breathing a sign of relief. Jonathan Husband, the Engineering and Environmental Services manager in the county’s Special Services Department, has announced today that he is running for County Executive.

[Husband] said he has been planning his run since 2007. Husband assumed it would be an open seat after former County Executive Chris Coons’ second term ended, but that changed when Coons became a U.S. senator in 2010. Clark was automatically elevated from county council president as Coons’ replacement and is now running for his first four-year term.

I don’t know Jonathan Husband, and I didn’t know of his plans. I suspect he kept those plans close to the vest. I hope he has used that time since 2007 (5 years!) to craft a great network of support and build a campaign warchest. Yes, you can tell I am highly suspect of this claim that he has been planning the race for 5 years. If was planning to run, he should have started making himself visible the moment Chris Coons resigned.

What I suspect happened is he was thinking about running, but then Coons got himself elected to the U.S. Senate and Clark succeeded to the Executive position, meaning that Clark would be running as an incumbent with an improving economy, a more difficult task for someone with no political history or name recognition. So Husband resigned himself to not making the race. But now the toxic Gordon is running and Clark looks vulnerable, with Shahan not proving to be the third choice salvation, so there is an opening for him after all.

Yeah, that’s what went down. Let’s not pretend otherwise.

So I look forward to hearing from Husband in the campaign. Here’s hoping that his campaign catches fire.

Wednesday Open Thread [5.30.12]

Bloomberg reports the economy is improving the most and faster in swing states.

“The unemployment rates in a majority of the 2012 battleground states are lower than the national average as those economies improve… Those eight states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — have a combined 101 electoral votes. Romney must win at least 79 of those electoral votes to prevail if all other states run true to their 2004 and 2008 partisan preferences.”

“A projection Moody’s made May 21 based on the model predicts an Obama victory with 303 electoral voters, with the Democrat carrying Ohio and Virginia and the Republican winning Florida.”

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“When they debate, Barack will smoke Romney,” – Sidney Barthwell, Romney’s classmate at Cranbrook and Obama’s at Harvard Law.

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Josh Marshall on why Romney is sticking with Trump:

My best guess is that they didn’t figure Trump would continue to be so nuts when they scheduled the mega-blowout fundraiser. And now that they’re here, they’re just figuring, whatever, let’s just get through tonight and it’ll be behind us.

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Romney’s iPhone campaign app misspells “America.” Can you imagine the shitstorm and conservative freakout if President Obama had done so?

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“I am a natural born citizen. My parents were American citizens. I was a citizen at birth,” – George Romney, father of Mitt, in a statement from his archives. He was born in Mexico, where his family had moved to continue to practice polygamy.

Teabaggers beg to differ. How ironic that President Obama was actually born in this country, but the father of their preferred candidate was not. Indeed, some teabaggers are saying that President Obama is not eligible to be President because both of his parents were not American, directly in contradiction to what George Romney says above. Such an argument would make Mitt Romney ineligible as well, since he is the son of a Mexican.

Tom Gordon Steals Obama’s Logo

Really Tom? Really? Tom Gordon has appropriated the Obama/Biden campaign logo for his own in an obvious attempt to directly tie his campaign for County Executive to the President’s reelection effort.

Check it out.

Now, they are different enough where there is no copyright violations, but similar enough for Gordon to latch onto Obama’s brand.

Romney Birth Certificate Release Raises More Questions

The big problem is that it is a “Certificate of Live Birth” and not a “Birth Certificate,” which according to this reputable website, http://tpo.net/certoflivebirth , is not an indication that someone was born in the United States. Also, this seems to be short form — where’s the complete long-form document?

Conclusion: The Koch Brothers are behind this conspiracy, to get someone into the White House, who is an empty suit and will go along with plans to protect their fortunes and lower their taxes.

– Taken in full from a TPM commenter.