The Delaware House [2012]
And now onto the House. Since the last time we did this in March, some new candidates have filed. But before we go on, I should note something. In the chart below, I list every incumbent unless they have announced that they are not running for reelection. In a lot of cases, some incumbents have not yet filed, but they have some more time to do so, since the deadline is not until July 10.
All 41 Representatives are up for election. So let’s see what has developed in the House races since the last time we reviewed the playing field.
In the open 1st, Charles Potter now has a primary with Rourke Moore. No Republicans have filed yet, and even if one did, this district is safe Democratic.
Debra Heffernan (D) has a Republican opponent in the 6th, as Eric Taylor, owner of Prevent Alarm Company, has filed. As El Som says, due to the census and redistricting, the 6th is marginally more Republican than it was in 2010, but I still consider it a lean Democratic district, and have listed it as such below in the chart. But we will keep an eye on this one.
Since the 20th RD was moved downstate, and incumbent Republican Representatives Nick Manolakos and Joe Miro were placed into the same district, the 22nd, we have been wondering which one would be the first to file. Well, it is Joe Miro. So now the question is does Manolakos primary him, or does he retire? Democrat David Ellis, who ran in 2010, has filed again. I have listed this race below as a toss up race, just because of the uncertainty of a Republican primary and wishful thinking on my part. In all likelihood, since the registration is still overwhelmingly GOP, it is likely that this seat stays Republican.
In the 10th RD, Democratic Representative Dennis E. Williams is getting a rematch with Bob Rhodunda (R). Dennis defeated Bod, 55% to 45% in 2010, a Republican year. I am listing this as a toss up race given the competitive nature of the district, but I expect the resilient Williams to survive. As for Rhodunda, here is what El Som said about Bob in 2010:
His opponent, Robert Rhodunda, is right out of the Greg Lavelle Training Academy. Like Lavelle, he is from the insurance field. Like Lavelle, he has served his time in the Council of Civic Organizations of Brandywine Hundred, which has devolved from a legitimate voice for the region into a launching pad for political wannabes. He’s even put in the requisite 5-year Little League stint.
In the new 11th RD in the Middletown area, we have three candidates who have filed: Democrats Lynne Newlin and David Brown, and Republican Jeff Spiegelman. I have no idea about any of them, so I look forward to hearing from our commenters about their opinions. And since I have no idea, I rate this race as a tossup until I find out different.
In the 12th RD, Democrat Frann Anderson has filed to run against Representative Deborah Hudson (R). This seat will stay Republican.
In the new 20th RD downstate, we have three candidates running, and again it is two Democrats and one Republican: Democrats Marie Mayor and Lynn Rogers and Republican Steve Smyk. I rate this race as a toss up because, again, I don’t know enough yet about the demographics and these candidates.
Trey Paradee lost the 29th RD by 50 votes in 2008, which eventually forced Represenative Pam Thornburg to retire in 2009. He did not run in 2010 for some reason, and the seat went to Republican Lincoln Willis. But now Paradee is back. And given his profile in the district, his close result in 2008, and Willis’ freshman status, I rate the 29th as a toss up now.
In the 32nd, Brad Bennett has an opponent in Republican Ellis Parrott. Given Brad’s drinking and driving issues of late, he might be in trouble, which is why I rated this district as a toss up.
In the 33rd and 34th RDs, we have Democrats John K. Robbins and Ted Yacucci filing to face Republican incumbents Harold Peterman and Donald Blakely, respectively. I still expect these districts to go Republican though.
As you know, Representative Gerald Hocker in the 38th has filed to run for the 20th Senate District, so this is now an open seat. Former Representative Shirley Price has filed to run, and she has a Republican opponent in Ronald Gray. Given Price’s name recognition, I am listing this race as a toss up, or at the least competitive.
Republican incumbent Biff Lee is retiring in the 40th, and Republican Tim Dukes has filed to replace him. No Democrats have filed yet, but I would expect this district to remain Republican.
Here is a map of the new House Districts with their current party representation indicated by the colors red (Republican) and blue (Democratic), with the 11th District in southern New Castle County and northern Kent County and the 20th District in Sussex County are colored grey as no one is currently representing these newly created districts.
Here is my chart of the races in the House. I have colored the races I expect to go Democratic in the fall blue, while races I expect to go to the Republicans are colored red. The tossup or competitive races are colored yellow.
The Democrats hold a 26-15 majority in the House, and there are no signs yet that this majority is in danger. The Republicans would need to pick up 6 seats to reach 21, enough for a majority. And yet there are only two Democratic seats that I would consider in danger at this point: Dennis Williams in the 10th and Brad Bennett in the 32nd. The rest of the toss up districts are currently held by Republicans, so they are playing a lot of defense here, and that is not the position to be in if you want to actually gain seats. Indeed, it is possible for the Dems to gain seats, as the new RDs in the 11th and 20th might fall to them. And the 29th and 38th will have competitive races with good Democratic candidates.
Marie Mayor is one of the owners of Lavender Fields in Milton. She is running hard and appears to have a lot of support. It also doesn’t hurt that Marie’s campaign is being run by the very capable Joanne Cabry.
The 40th has 2 candidates who have filed to run on the D ticket. Ben Lowe and Ray Adkins (no relation to John Atkins).
They are both local business owners with deep family roots.
Timothy Dukes is Hal Dukes son and his campaign manager. The Western Sussex Dems are pissed at Hal Dukes about this.
D’oh. I completely forgot about them and I already knew they had filed.
SussexAnon doesn’t know his or her ass from a hole in the ground. Tim Dukes is Dale Dukes’ son, not Hal’s, and a local pastor. Dale really should be a Republican, so this is no surprise to anyone who actually knows anything about western Sussex.
And you forgot to mention Will McVay in the 32nd! He ought to siphon off four or so votes.
I apologize for the typo. I am mulitasking here. You are correct SW.
I’d consider Willis the favorite over Paradee b/c frankly he was a better candidate than Thornburg, who had basically retired but hadn’t told anybody.
I don’t think there’s any way that Bennett will be the D nominee, and I think the district is a D lean w/o Bennett.
Don’t forget that Williams’ former campaign manager has said that he will primary his former boss, but he hasn’t filed yet. In a straight Williams/Rhodunda rematch, I’d favor Williams, especially in a presidential year.
Gotta think that the big-mouth cop (Smyk) is the favorite in the 20th. Gray is probably the favorite in the 38th. And I’d rate the 33rd a toss-up. That district is perhaps the most evenly-split RD in the state.
33rd is hardly a toss up. I agree with EL on the 29th. Lincoln will be hard to beat though if any one could, it would be Trey. Bennett will be the D nominee. There is no Democrat setting up an organization. You won’t beat an incumbent who is even marginally popular in a primary starting from the ground up this late.
The 31st has a race that you overlooked. At this point it is still a D district, check back after a summer of campaigning with all of the races.
Then again, everyone’s forgetting the effect the top of the ticket may have on these races as well:
Barack Obama – huge surge of voters in 2008 and given his organization this time (at least in other states), could sustain higher Democratic engagement.
Jack Markell – one of the most popular governors in the country that is pretty centrist and can pull some downstaters.
Tom Carper – last time he ran he won all 3 counties. Maybe his supporters will trickle down-ballot too?
Not to mention if Mitch Crane wins the primary, you gotta figure that he’ll pull some downstate D’s out.
Great point. These races dont happen in a vacuum.
RD, on exactly what do you base your assertion re the 33rd? The last three races have been razor-thin, and Peterman has had difficulty getting out of the R primary. (Ulysses S. Grant, anybody?) And Bob Walls, who won two terms as a D, was a nice guy, but hardly an electoral juggernaut. There are R’s who don’t like Peterman, so it’s not like he’s a unity candidate.
No way Bennett’s the nominee, IMHO. I think there is ground being laid for a change and, while it may be under wraps right now, I don’t think the D caucus will support Bennett for another term. Too much baggage now, and he hardly blew the doors off last time out.
Darryl Scott was thought to be in possible trouble last time, but spanked long-time politico Ron Smith. If you don’t get a freshman incumbent the first time out, the odds get considerably longer after that.
I guess I’ve been assuming all this time that Chris Weeks was going to give Pete another go in the 14th, but my Republican friends haven’t heard a peep.
Weeks isn’t running, Urquhart was a total dick to him in 2011, apparently demanding that Weeks raise something like $10K to be considered a candidate. Urquhart is too much of a sniveling coward to run against Schwartzkopf, instead, he’s going after a republican, his evil minions are already out in force asking for Lopez’s birth certificate and whining that he is on the government dole, forgetting that Urquhart was sucking off the Federal teat for well over a decade.
I hope Urquhart doesn’t make it out of the primary so two decent human beings can run a decent race for the new district.
Where do we start anon. If Mr. Weeks wanted to run, a temporary chairman could not stop him. Do you think presenting a plan to raise 10k was an unreasonable request for this office?
Personally, I think Mr. Weeks should have run. It takes two strong runs to take out an entrenched incumbent. That said, if was not willing to stake his claim, he shouldn’t run. That is the worse excuse that I have heard in a while. A chairman who is not even in office is keeping you from filing because he hurt your feelings by asking you to work harder this time. I find that hard to believe. Maybe next time.
None of Urquhart’s people are wasting time asking for Mr. Lopez’ birth certificate. There were a few people who showed their ignorance of who is an American citizen (born in P.R. obviously qualifies), what the requirements are for state senate, and no they were not minions of Urquhart. Some do say that he is on the government dole, but most people know that Mr. Lopez works for a living which by definition is not money doled out. As for chairing the National Planning Commission, that doesn’t pay much. Even today, it is $100 per day worked.
Anon is just doing what he/she is accusing the otherside of doing. Csn we all just tone it down?
I think Weeks learned his lesson last time with his tax problem: Running for office isn’t like presiding over the chamber of commerce. Politics isn’t a mutual admiration society. My take last time was that he was a pretty naive guy.
Few people are going to stick themselves out there, esp to run against the fourth- or fifth-most powerful guy in Leg Hall. Just not worth it, ESP in that district.
Republican David-is Mr. Urquhart funding your new “project”?