*Well, not all as in ALL. Just every primary where I think I know enough to make a prediction. Some of which, invariably, will be wrong.
National Races:
U. S. Senate D’s: Tom Carper routs Keith Spanarelli. Over/under on Spanarelli: 12%.
U. S. House R’s: Tom Kovach routs Rose Izzo. Over/under on Rizzo: 11%.
Statewide:
Delaware Insurance Commissioner (D): Mitch Crane 47%, Karen Weldin Stewart 38%, Gallagher 9%, Spivack 6%. This race is not over yet. While trends favor Crane, and the party endorsement will help, you can’t be sure if the insurance industry will decide to ‘double down’ on KWS, and help fund a last-minute blitz. Won’t matter as long as Crane executes his game plan, but he has to execute his game plan. Gallagher and Spivack only serve to take votes away from the two contenders, and I think some of their supporters will recognize this before Primary Day. It also wouldn’t hurt if Gov. Jack Markell spent one-tenth the time helping a worthy D like Crane as he has spent working for the unworthy ethically-bankrupt Tony DeLuca. But then, DeLuca pushed for, and the Governor signed, the disastrous bill permitting the merger between Blue Cross/Blue Shield (DE) and Highmark to go through. The disastrous merger that KWS promoted and Crane opposes. Hmmm, that couldn’t have anything to do with the Governor’s staying on the sidelines here, now could it?
State Senate:
SD 1 (D): Dave Brady’s campaign has been depressingly dismal, as anyone who sees his signs seemingly put up at random at locations far out of his district can attest. Harris McDowell has run an effective campaign, at least when contrasted with Brady’s, and McDowell will defeat Brady, something like 61-34, with perhaps as much as 5% of the vote going to James Martin. McDowell was and remains a very vulnerable incumbent, but Brady gave people no reason to vote for him as an alternative. A political guy in the district who has no dawg in the hunt explained it thusly:
“Dave seems to be running because he’s still pissed off at the 2002 House redistricting” that eliminated his district.
He even reportedly pulled out those 2002 maps at a candidate’s forum. Let me state the obvious. The results of a 2002 House redistricting will have exactly zero bearing on a 2012 Senate race. I like Dave, and I like Harris. But Harris’ record in recent years, especially as it related to the SEU, has been far from exemplary. I wish Dave had been able to run a more coherent campaign in order to give voters a clearer choice.
SD 3 (D): Sen. Bob Marshall wanted to run for Mayor, but finally opted to run for reelection. I have heard that polls showed that his name recognition throughout the city was not nearly as strong as he had anticipated. While Eric Anderson may well have a bright political future, I don’t think the future is now, not on Marshall’s home turf. And Tim Meades doesn’t have a bright political future. Marshall should win fairly handily.
SD 6 (D): Only one candidate has poured a lot of money into this race, and that’s Andy Staton. He also has the Schwartzkopf machine supporting him. I don’t see this race as being competitive. Bob Frederick will finish second, and that Micheal Miller guy will finish up the track.
SD 6 (R): I could be wrong here. But, without Christine O’Donnell wielding her potent Not-A-Witches’-Brew, I believe that teabaggers will prove impotent this year, especially in eastern Sussex. Plus, Rethugs just might want to win one for a change. Plusplus, I think that statewide R’s want to rebuild their threadbare bench. Not to mention that (a) Ernie Lopez is an excellent candidate, probably the best that the R’s have offered this year, and; (b)even by Quirky Urkie standards, his run this year has been downright eccentric. So I’m predicting Lopez, 60-40, over Glen Urquhart.
SD 18 (R): Sen. Gary Simpson over Opaliski. Not a contest. Next.
SD 19 (R): I will once again say just how quiet this race has been. Surprising. When in doubt, go with a theory that could well be disproven: There are more than enough establishment R’s in western Sussex to turn back a less-enthused teabag base. So, I think Sen. Joe Booth triumphs by a bigger margin over Eric Bodenweiser than in 2010, make it 55-45. Maybe double-dipping is an attribute that is admired in western Sussex?
THE BIG ONE:
SD 11 (D): Is it possible for an incumbent to spend $150,000 on a State Senate primary race and lose? We’re about to find out, and I think the answer is yes. Especially when the bulk of that money goes toward campaign lit that, at some point, only reminds voters that they’ve never seen the so-called ‘incumbent’ who is sending out all that lit. This race would be over were it not for Gov. Jack Markell, who is simply not the guy I campaigned for and voted for. He would rather have the thuggish Tony DeLuca ‘enforcing’ discipline in the Senate caucus than to have bright legislators able and willing to think for themselves. I’m sure I’m not the only one who is keenly disappointed in Markell’s turning against the type of grassroots campaign that got him elected (along with big gobs of money). But, I don’t think it’s going to be effective. Bryan Townsend is an amazing candidate, and his team has run a textbook grassroots campaign. I somehow doubt that last-minute Markell robocalls are going to motivate voters to go out and vote for someone they’ve never met in DeLuca’s 14 years in office. And I know that robocalls WILL get out D’s who have met and can’t stand Tony DeLuca. Were it not for the full-court press by Markell, who should be but won’t be ashamed by his actions, this wouldn’t even be close. But, the Thugocracy has worked to make it close, and it will be close. However, it’s tough to run a campaign without a candidate you actually want the public to meet. Townsend 53-47. But only if people who want him to win help him to win by voting. No excuse staying home for this one. As close to ‘Good vs. Evil’ as you’re ever gonna get.
COMING TOMORROW: WILMINGTON, NEW CASTLE COUNTY, AND THE STATE HOUSE OF REPS.
If you can’t wait, tune into today’s Al Mascitti Show, and hear El Somnambulo predict ALL the key primary races. 10-12 noon on WDEL-AM, 1150 on your radio dial.
Uh, by the way, I reserve the right to change these predictions right up until the last minute. So, go ahead, give me strong persuasive reasoning to demonstrate that I’m wrong. In other words, something that I haven’t heard before, ad nauseum.
And, if anyone wants to defend Jack Markell, feel free. I never expected to agree with him on everything, but I never expected him to embrace the Dark Side either. Talk me down.