The Polling Report [9.19.12]
The polling report officially goes meta: A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds 46% of Americans hold favorable views of polls in general, and 47% have negative ones. My brain has officially malfunctioned…
Meanwhile, Romney’s outrageous and unAmerican Libya lies have done real damage:
Anyway, we have a lot of new polls, and they only change the shades of color on the map. Wisconsin finds a deeper shade of blue while New Hampshire is irritating in its preference for sky blue.
NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL–Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 46
NATIONAL–Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 47 Romney 43 (LV); Obama 48 Romney40 (RV)
NATIONAL–NBC/Wall Street Journal: Obama 50, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 44 (RV)
NATIONAL–Rasmussen Tracking–with leaners: Obama 48, Romney 48
STATE POLLS
COLORADO–Qinnipiac/CBS News/NYT: Obama 48, Romney 47
WISCONSIN–Qinnipiac/CBS News/NYT: Obama 51, Romney 45
MASSACHUSETTS–PPP: Obama 57, Romney 39
MASSACHUSETTS–Suffolk University: Obama 64, Romney 31
MASSACHUSETTS–Western New England College: Obama 60, Romney 38 (LV); Obama 64, Romney 32 (RV)
MICHIGAN–Marketing Resource Group–R: Obama 48, Romney 42
NEW HAMPSHIRE–American Research Group: Obama 48, Romney 46
OREGON–SurveyUSA: Obama 50, Romney 41
PENNSYLVANIA–Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Obama 50, Romney 41
VIRGINIA–Washington Post: Obama 52, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 50 Romney 43 (RV)
VIRGINIA–Qinnipiac/CBS News/NYT: Obama 50, Romney 46
SENATE POLLS
MASSACHUSETTS–Suffolk University: Elizabeth Warren (D) 48, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44
MASSACHUSETTS–WBUR: Elizabeth Warren (D) 45, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 40
MICHIGAN–Marketing Resource Group–R: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 46, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40
NEW JERSEY–Philadelphia Inquirer: Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 43, Joe Kyrillos (R) 32
PENNSYLVANIA–Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Sen. Bob Casey (D) 45, Tom Smith (R) 33
CONNECTICUT–University of Connecticut-Hartford Courant: Rep. Chris Murphy (D) 37, Linda McMahon (R) 33%, with 29% still undecided.
WISCONSIN–Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News: Tammy Baldwin (D) 47, former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) 47, with 6% still undecided.
GOVERNOR POLLS
NEW HAMPSHIRE–American Research Group: Ovide Lamontagne (R) 47, Maggie Hassan (D) 46, John Babiarz (L) 2
It’s only a matter of time before Romney starts saying “The only poll that matters is on Election Day.”
Once the media cannot lie about it any more, the story will change from horse race to landslide.
When that happens, the House starts to tip.
Golly gee, I wonder where Rusty went. Isn’t he usually here to tell us that Romney will get 350 electoral votes or something?
Has anyone seen this over at NYTImes?
“Senate Forecast: What Has Gone Wrong for G.O.P. Candidates?”
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/senate-forecast-what-has-gone-wrong-for-g-o-p-candidates/
It seems that in recent polls, nearly all the GOP senate candidates are all cratering. And this has all happened in the past few days. The odds that the GOP takes the Senate are now about 20% (down from 60% not so long ago). The odds that the GOP actually loses a seat or more is now estimated at about 30%.
Theory No. 1: Is Romney a Downballot Drag?
Theory No. 2: G.O.P. Conservatism Is Hurting
It appears that Romney not only shot himself in the foot, but he also shot the ENTIRE brand of Tea Party conservatism in the foot too…
If this continues, Nate Silver speculates that even the GOP house is in jeopardy…
Maybe people will start to accuse Romney of being a liberal mole. Hey! Maybe he’ll leak his own tax returns as an encore, after having used every cheat trick he could think of.
LE,
I’m surprised by that Senate picture. I think the conventional wisdom was that if Romney looked like an odds on loser, it could actually help the wingnut Senate candidates by freeing up vast sums of wingnut billionaire attack ad money.
BTE – Iowa Electronic Markets confirms the 538 findings. I’m not sure who is leading and who is following, but the Republican Senate is suddenly looking in very shaky.