The Polling Report [10.2.12]
Romney, by the way, has had a bounce back on Intrade, up from around 21 percent chance to 26 percent. Nate Silver’s now-cast has Romney with a 2.2 percent chance; and his forecast for November gives him a 14 percent chance.
I didn’t expect it to break this way – but it has, because of the arguments of both sides. Campaigns matter. The candidate matters. And the moment matters. It’s an alchemy democracy; and it still holds the potential for surprise.
I did expect it to break this way. As did Booman, who is now seeing the beginnings of a blowout:
According to the WMUR Granite State poll, Romney’s campaign in New Hampshire has utterly collapsed. Obama leads with independents 47%-29% and he has a 27% advantage with women. Add that up and Obama leads 52%-37% overall and 54%-39% once you push leaners. It seems almost certain that Obama will top 55% in the state, while Romney will struggle to top 40%. That means we will almost certainly win both House seats in the state. The Democrats have a 12% advantage in motivation, too, which shows that it has been important to hammer home the fact that Romney is going to lose. The New Hampshire GOP has received the message and they no longer give a shit.
This is how a campaign crumbles. Remember, I compared it to arm-wrestling. It can look competitive for a long time, but ultimately one side is stronger and the victory can be sudden and jarring. Pollsters were seeing an enthusiasm gap that favored Republicans all year long, and their likely voter models reflected that. But the enthusiasm gap has been closed, or even reversed in some places. That’s why the GOP has launched this absurd campaign about unskewed polls. They can’t let their troops realize the game is over or the floor will fall out below them. And, in New Hampshire, it already has.
NATIONAL POLLS
ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 49, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 44 (RV)
American Research Group: Obama 49, Romney 46
CNN/Opinion Research: Obama 50, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 46 (RV)
Gallup Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 45
GWU Battleground/Politico: Obama 49, Romney 47
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 41 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 40 (RV)
Merriman River Group: Obama 46, Romney 43, Others 3
Rasmussen Tracking:Obama 50, Romney 47
UPI/CVoter Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 46
Zogby for the Washington Times: Obama 50, Romney 41
STATE POLLS
COLORADO (We Ask America–R): Obama 49, Romney 46, Others 1
IOWA (We Ask America–R): Obama 48, Romney 44, Others 2
MAINE (Critical Insights): Obama 52, Romney 36, Others 3
MARYLAND (Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks): Obama 57, Romney 34
MASSACHUSETTS (MassINC for WBUR): Obama 60, Romney 32
MASSACHUSETTS (Univ. of NH for the Boston Globe): Obama 57, Romney 30, Others 2
MICHIGAN (EPIC/MRA): Obama 47, Romney 37
MICHIGAN (We Ask America–R): Obama 52, Romney 40, Others 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 52, Romney 37
NEW MEXICO (We Ask America–R): Obama 51, Romney 41, Others 4
NORTH CAROLINA (American Research Group): Romney 50, Obama 46, Others 1
WASHINGTON (Rasmussen): Obama 52, Romney 41, Other 3
SENATE POLLS
FLORIDA (Gravis–R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 43, Connie Mack IV (R) 43
HAWAII (Merriman River Group for Civil Beat): Mazie Hirono (D) 55, Linda Lingle (R) 39
MAINE (Critical Insights): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 28, Cynthia Dill (D) 12
MASSACHUSETTS (MassINC for WBUR): Elizabeth Warren (D) 49, Sen. Scott Brown (D) 45
MISSOURI (Kiley and Company for the McCaskill campaign): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 50, Todd Akin (R) 41
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 39, Others 2
NEW MEXICO (We Ask America–R): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 41
OHIO (Columbus Dispatch): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 39
GOVERNOR POLLS
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 47, Walter Dalton (D) 37, Barbara Howe (L) 5
Is 332 a blow out? Hardly. The EC vote is fixed at 332 to 205. It will be that +/- 1 or 2 EV’s either way. The popular vote will be closer, so the narrative will be:
Obama narrowly wins re-election despite economy
Needless to say, if a Republican won with that EC vote, it would be: MANDATE BITCHES!!!
Anything above 350 is a blowout, in my opinion, and in prior descriptions of elections where a candidate won with similar EC vote totals, i.e. George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and Barack Obama in 2008.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama gets closer to 350 than 332. The media is still sticking with its “dead statistical heat” narrative. Few people are tracking it this closely and nobody is really looking at this electoral map, so Republican voters still have hope, and many of them still have their hateful arrogance and their delusion that the whole country hates Obama.
But some point before the election they will give up hope – and people like to vote for winners. On the other hand when that happens it may depress Dem turnout, so who knows.
To get to 350 you need North Carolina and Arizona. I think that is well nigh impossible.
Not impossible. Obama will win North Carolina.
If things break heavily for Obama, like Booman and I expect, then Obama wins NC, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, and Georgia. Seriously.
And all of that gets him to 399 Electoral Votes.
lol. Your keyboard to God’s eyes.
I’m setting the over/under line at 347 and taking the under all day.
@j “Is 332 a blow out?”
The real test of a blow out is the down ballot contests.
If the Dems retake the house. ==> BLOWOUT!
350…LOLOLOLOL!!!!
No, seriously, that’s a real knee-slapper!