Monday Open Thread [10.15.12]
John Heilemann on the Obama-Clinton relationship, which in my mind is all about 2016:
“What Obama stands to gain from the transaction [.e. Bill Clinton’s fervent endorsement of the President and his campaigning for him everywhere this fall] is plain enough to see. The support of the political figure with the highest approval rating, 69 percent, of any in America. The persuasive services of a surrogate who can talk the owls down from the trees. The imprimatur of a former president associated with a period of broad and deep prosperity, imbued with unparalleled credibility on matters economic, and possessing special traction with the white working- and middle-class voters whom Obama has always had a hard time reaching. What Obama stands to gain, in other words, is a healthy boost in his quest for reelection–one all the more invaluable in the wake of his dismal performance in the first debate.”
“The potential payoff for Clinton is more ineffable but no less substantial. Last time around, recall, Obama’s candidacy was based in part on the consignment of Clintonism to the dustbin of history. But now, with Obama running unabashedly as the inheritor of that creed, Clinton is reveling in seeing his legacy restored to what he regards as its rightful status: a restoration that will mightily benefit his wife if she hurls herself at the White House again in 2016. Speculation on that topic is rife within the Clinton diaspora; no one has a clue as to whether or not Hillary will run. But, equally, no one doubts that her husband dearly wants her to–mainly because, among members of the tribe, he can’t shut up about it.”
To the point, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D), on the 2016 presidential race: “If Hillary runs, she walks away with the nomination and then beats whichever Republican. It’s lights out.”
I agree, and to the larger point, I believe which ever party wins the 2012 election will win the 2016 election.
The following was the most watched moment of Thursday’s vice presidential debate, which probably explains why the Republicans are flipping out:
Biden succeeded, as evidenced by the fact that the lion’s share of post-debate commentary was All About Joe. Critics said he smiled too much, interrupted his opponent too often, came across as too “hot” for a medium that is all about cool. But these complaints only reinforced the fact that Biden was the protagonist of the evening. […] At this debate, the real Biden showed up. At the next, on Tuesday at Hofstra University on Long Island, the real Obama had better do the same.
For the last 50 years, with the sole exception of 1988, the presidency has largely swapped back and forth. 12 years of Reagan-Bush is the longest consecutive period that one party has held the White House since FDR. So if Obama wins this year, the odds are heavily against a Democrat winning in 2016. Even if that Democrat is named Clinton.
unless what happened to the Whigs happens to teh Repukes…. then it will take another 8 or so years of a viable second party to emerge. not a REAL long time, they will be backed by conservative money, but i think an Obama win followed by dem-friendly mid-terms could really end the GOP.
The challenger from the out-of-power party almost always has the advantage. I just don’t see Obama and the current crop of lackluster Democrats able to reverse the tide of history.
@SW “The challenger from the out-of-power party almost always has the advantage.”
The opposite is true. Incumbency is a significant advantage. Recently, there have been more two term presidents than one term guys.
I was clearly speaking about 2016. There will be no incumbent.
Sher Valenzuela blamed George Soros for releasing the information about her company, First State Manufacturing, and the millions in government loans and grants that it takes, when she was on Delaware 105.9 this morning with Gaffney.
She also claimed that the City of Milford doesn’t pay her utility bills. Why? Because her utility bills are paid for by a program funded by the City of Milford to subsidize “job creators” utility bills.
I can’t vote for someone THAT stupid who thinks I’m even MORE stupid than she is.
Even by lax standards of wingngut logic, this spits in the face of credulity: “(Valenzuela) also claimed that the City of Milford doesn’t pay her utility bills. Why? Because her utility bills are paid for by a program funded by the City of Milford to subsidize “job creators” utility bills.”
What kind of person makes her first run for elective office for the office of Lt. Gov.? Considering it’s a job without duties, I’d say someone looking for some easy money.
I agree with DD. Republicans have more or less said that if they win, this would be the last Presidential election in which most Americans will be eligible to vote.
@anon, George Soros? Really? She actually said that?
That information is available to any American with a computer and the internet. Of course George is an American and I’m sure he has a computer and the internet…
Yes, Dave, she really said that it was George Soros. She said it several times.
Also…Saul Aliksky keyed her car.
I’d say someone looking for some easy money.
She’s the GOP’s poster child for government funded businesses, why wouldn’t she want to expand that into her personal life, too?
Lavelle goes boo-hoo because his opponent has job skills and he doesn’t:
http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20121015/NEWS02/310150051/Stipend-spat-heats-up
“Not everyone is an anesthesiologist and makes six figures,” said Lavelle, …
Drunk woman tries to avoid arrest by claiming she’s a Republican. Yes, this is he Examiner, but still this is funny. IOKIYAR indeed.
Re Lavelle-Katz: One might also ask how much one earns as the managing director of an investment services business. I would be very surprised if that is not a six-figure position.
Lavelle might be the guy in the picture window who’s compensated based on the business that he delivers.
As Paul will confirm, consumers are demanding. They won’t have you invest their money just because you played for the Steelers or can get you some gas from the JFC.
Cassandra, I had to tell a Republican blowhard to shut up at ‘Argo’ yesterday. If he had been a drunk Republican blow hard, there would have been trouble.
I love how this woman has so internalized the republican entitlement to bad behavior that she thought it would excuse her disturbing the peace that way.
It is scary too.