The Polling Report [10.15.12] – Obama Regains National Lead.
A New York Magazine poll of political insiders, asked to predict the winner of the presidential election, finds President Obama overwhelmingly favored over Mitt Romney, 82% to 18%. These are the same political insiders that were jonesing for a close dramatic race, right? Meanwhile, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows President Obama leads Mitt Romney by a 59% to 31% among those who have already voted. With the November 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7% of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail.
There is a new Washington Post-ABC News poll out this morning that gives much comfort to we nervous Democratic wusses. First, the poll finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney among likely voters, 49% to 46%, “basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate.”
“Nearly two-thirds say they do not need any more information before Election Day, and barely one in eight is undecided or says there is a chance he could change his vote. Even as voters overwhelmingly perceive that Romney won the first debate, the vast majority say their opinion of the president did not shift as a result.”
“But more people changed their views of Romney, largely in a positive direction. Overall, more than twice as many say their opinions of the former Massachusetts governor improved than say they worsened as a result of the debate. The strongest reaction is among Romney backers, 70 percent of whom say Denver made them think more highly of the GOP nominee.”
This poll is not an outlier. Other polls showed the President retaking the national lead from Romney as the latter’s debate bounce fades.
NATIONAL POLLS
Washington Post-ABC News: Obama 49, Romney 46
Politico/GWU: Obama 48, Romney 47
Newsmax/Zogby: Obama 47, Romney 44
Gallup Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 46 (RV)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 46
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Romney 46, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 42 (RV)
Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 47
STATE POLLS
ARIZONA (Rocky Mountain Poll): Obama 44, Romney 42–Slim Obama
COLORADO (SurveyUSA): Romney 48, Obama 47
COLORADO (Gravis): Obama 48, Romney 46
These results average out to Obama 47.5, Romney 47. So Colorado is the Slimmest of Slim Obama leads.
FLORIDA (American Research Group): Romney 49, Obama 46
FLORIDA (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 48
This averages out to Romney 49, Obama 47, or a Slim Romney lead, which is an improvement for Obama over what was found in Florida by NBC earlier last week.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (American Research Group): Romney 50, Obama 46–Slim Romney
NORTH CAROLINA (UNC/High Point University): Obama 46, Romney 45
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 47
The average is Romney 47, Obama 46.5, or the slimmest of Slim Romney leads.
OHIO (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 46–Lean Obama
SOUTH DAKOTA (Nielson Brothers): Romney 52, Obama 41–Strong Romney
SENATE POLLS:
FL-SEN (Mason-Dixon): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 42
NJ-SEN (Philadelphia Inquirer): Sen. Robert Mendendez (D) 49, Joe Kyrillos (R) 35
OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 46
PA-SEN (Philadelphia Inquirer): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 38
WI-SEN (Rasmussen): Tammy Baldwin (D) 51, Tommy Thompson (R) 47
DD, i know im the A-hole who always questions your map, but if Obama wins Arizona, I’ll buy ya many many rounds at the next DL.
I agree, but I am just reporting what a poll says. Given that it is not a Democratic sponsored poll, we had to include it. If Obama wins Arizona, then he wins Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana by large margins.