The Polling Report Part II: The Senate Forecast [10.17.12]
Our last Senate Forecast Update was seven days ago, so we are due to update our little chart. I have gone back and looked at all the Senate polls from the past week, including today’s wealth of YouGov polls, and updated the chart. Based on all the Senate polls of the last week, the Democrats in the Senate would pick up Massachusetts and Maine (well, Angus King will pick it up, but he is nearly assured of caucusing with the Dems, especially if President Obama wins election and the Dems retain the Senate), while the Republicans looks set to pick up Montana and Nebraska. There are two races that are exactly tied at this moment: North Dakota and Virginia.
If the Dems lose both of the tied races, then the final tally would be Dems 51, GOP 49, a net pickup for the GOP of two seats.
ARIZONA (Behavior Research Center): Richard Carmona (D) 44, Jeff Flake (R) 40
ARIZONA (YouGov): Jeff Flake (R) 44, Richard Carmona (D) 38
The average of these two polls is Jeff Flake 42, Richard Carmona 41, or a SLIM GOP lead.
CALIFORNIA (YouGov): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 55, Elizabeth Emken (R) 35–STRONG DEM
CONNECTICUT (YouGov): Chris Murphy (D) 42, Linda McMahon (R) 40–SLIM DEM
FLORIDA (Univ. of North Florida): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50, Connie Mack IV (R) 40
YouGov: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 42
PPP: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 45, Connie Mack IV (R) 37
The average of the three polls is Nelson 47.33 to Mack 39.67, or a LEAN DEM lead.
INDIANA (YouGov): Richard Mourdock (R) 45, Joe Donnelly (D) 41–SLIM GOP
MASSACHUSETTS (YouGov): Elizabeth Warren (D) 46, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 39–LEAN DEM
MARYLAND (YouGov): Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 54, Dan Bongino (R) 30–STRONG DEM
MICHIGAN (YouGov): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 49, Pete Hoekstra (R) 39–STRONG DEM
MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 58, Kurt Bills (R) 30–STRONG DEM
MINNESOTA (YouGov): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 55, Kurt Bills (R) 32–STRONG DEM
MISSOURI (YouGov): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 47, Todd Akin (R) 42–LEAN DEM
NEVADA (YouGov): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 42, Shelley Berkley (D) 36–LEAN GOP
NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 55, Joe Kyrillos (R) 37–STRONG DEM
NEW JERSEY (YouGov): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 49, Joe Kyrillos (R) 32–STRONG DEM
NEW MEXICO (Research and Polling for the Albuquerque Journal): Martin Heinrich (D) 48, Heather Wilson (R) 39–LEAN DEM
NEW YORK (YouGov): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 55, Wendy Long (R) 25–STRONG DEM
OHIO (YouGov): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 43–LEAN DEM
OHIO (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 42–LEAN DEM
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 45
(YouGov): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 41
(Muhlenberg College): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 41, Tom Smith (R) 39
(PPP): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 50, Tom Smith (R) 39
The average of these 4 polls is Casey 46.75 to Smith’s 41, or a LEAN DEM lead.
TENNESSEE (YouGov): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 48, Mark Clayton (D) 27–STRONG GOP
TEXAS (YouGov): Ted Cruz (R) 51, Paul Sadler (D) 36–STRONG GOP
VIRGINIA (YouGov): Tim Kaine (D) 42, George Allen (R) 42–TIED
WASHINGTON (YouGov): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 55, Michael Baumgartner (R) 36–STRONG DEM
WISCONSIN (YouGov): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 43–LEAN DEM
GOVERNOR POLLS
NH-GOV (Feldman Group for the DGA): Maggie Hassan (D) 44, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 39, John Babiarz (L) 5
NH-GOV (Suffolk): Maggie Hassan (D) 41, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 38, John Babiarz (L) 4
NH-GOV (Rasmussen): Maggie Hassan (D) 48, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 46
NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 47, Walter Dalton (D) 37, Barbara Howe (L) 5
NC-GOV (Rasmussen): Pat McCrory (R) 52, Walter Dalton (D) 38
NC-GOV (YouGov): Pat McCrory (R) 50, Walter Dalton (D) 34
IN-GOV (YouGov): Mike Pence (R) 49, John Gregg (D) 38
MO-GOV (YouGov): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 54, Dave Spence (R) 36
WA-GOV (Rasmussen): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 45
WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 44
WA-GOV (YouGov): Jay Inslee (D) 49, Rob McKenna (R) 39
