Monster Downballot Polling Report, with some Presidential numbers too [10.24.12]

The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama moving slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, as you will see below. However, Obama “maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 322 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes.” I wish more tracking polls released this kind of information so we can see where these leads for Romney in the other ones are coming from. We saw last week that Romney’s entire lead comes from the South, where he leads Obama by 22%, while Obama lead in every other region with 52 or 53%.

We have new state polls in New Hampshire, Florida, Virginia and Nevada, where it is a close race all around.

NATIONAL POLLS
ABC/WaPo Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 48
Gallup Tracking: Romney 51, Obama 46 (LV); Romney 48, Obama 47 (RV)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 45
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)
PPP Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47
PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU: Obama 48, Romney 48
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 50, Obama 46
UPI/CVoter: Obama 48, Romney 48
YouGov: Obama 48, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 45 (RV)

STATE POLLS

CONNECTICUT (SurveyUSA): Obama 53, Romney 40–STRONG OBAMA

FLORIDA (Mellman Group for Americans United for Change): Obama 47, Romney 47–TIED

NEVADA (American Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 47–SLIM OBAMA

NEW HAMPSHIRE (American Research Group): Romney 49, Obama 47–SLIM ROMNEY

NORTH DAKOTA (Essman/Research): Romney 57, Obama 32–STRONG ROMNEY

UTAH (Key Research): Romney 71, Obama 20–UNOBTAINIUM ROMNEY

VIRGINIA (Mellman Group for Americans United for Change): Obama 46, Romney 45–SLIM OBAMA

SENATE POLLS

AZ-SEN (Anzalone Liszt for the Carmona campaign): Richard Carmona (D) 45, Jeff Flake (R) 41, Marc Victor (L) 5–SLIM DEM

CT-SEN (Hamilton Campaigns for the DSCC): Chris Murphy (D) 46, Linda McMahon (R) 40
CT-SEN (SurveyUSA): Chris Murphy (D) 47, Linda McMahon (R) 43

The average is Murphy 46.5, McMahon 41.5, or LEAN DEM

FL-SEN (PPP for local media outlets): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 45, Connie Mack IV (R) 41
FL-SEN (Angus Reid): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 56, Connie Mack IV (R) 39
FL-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 48, Connie Mack IV (R) 40

The average is Nelson 49.67, Mack 40, or LEAN DEM.

IN-SEN (Global Strategy Group for the Donnelly campaign): Joe Donnelly (D) 40, Richard Mourdock (R) 38, Andy Horning (L) 8–SLIM DEM

MD-SEN (Washington Post): Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 53, Dan Bongino (R) 22, Rob Sobhani (I) 14–STRONG DEM

MA-SEN (Kimball Consulting–R): Elizabeth Warren (D) 48, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46–SLIM DEM

MI-SEN (Angus Reid): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 59, Pete Hoesktra (R) 39–STRONG DEM

MO-SEN (PPP): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 46, Todd Akin (R) 40, Jonathan Dine (L) 6–LEAN DEM

NJ-SEN (Stockton Polling Institute): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 52, Joe Kyrillos (R) 30

NJ-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 53, Joe Kyrillos (R) 33

The average is Menendez 52.5, Kyrillos 31.5, or STRONG DEM.

ND-SEN (Essman/Research): Rick Berg (R) 50, Heidi Heitkamp (D) 40
ND-SEN (Mellman Group for the Heitkamp campaign): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 45, Rick Berg (R) 42

The average is Berg 46, Heitkamp 42.5, or SLIM GOP

OH-SEN (Angus Reid): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 52, Josh Mandel (R) 45
OH-SEN (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 44
OH-SEN (Public Opinion Strategies for the Mandel campaign): Josh Mandel (R) 44, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 43
OH-SEN (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring PAC–R): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 41
OH-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 42
OH-SEN (Suffolk University): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 39, Scott Rupert (I) 6

The average is Brown 48, Mandel 42.5, or LEAN DEM

PA-SEN (Angus Reid): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 51, Tom Smith (R) 45
PA-SEN (Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 45, Tom Smith (R) 37
PA-SEN (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring PAC): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 47, Tom Smith (R) 46

The average is Casey 47.67, Smith 42.67, or LEAN DEM

RI-SEN (McLaughlin and Associates for the Peoples Majority PAC–R): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 49, Barry Hinckley (R) 41–LEAN DEM

UT-SEN (Key Research): Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) 61, Scott Howell (D) 22–STRONG GOP

VA-SEN (Garin-Hart-Yang for the DSCC): Tim Kaine (D) 48, George Allen (R) 44
VA-SEN (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring PAC–R): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 44
VA-SEN (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United–R): George Allen (R) 49, Tim Kaine (D) 46

The average is Kaine 46.67, Allen 45.67, or SLIM DEM

WI-SEN (Angus Reid): Tammy Baldwin (D) 50, Tommy Thompson (R) 47
WI-SEN (Feldman Group for the Baldwin campaign): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 44
WI-SEN (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring PAC–R): Tammy Baldwin (D) 47, Tommy Thompson (R) 46

The average is Baldwin 48.67, Thompson 45.67, or SLIM DEM

GOVERNOR POLLS

MO-GOV (PPP): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 51, Dave Spence (R) 40

WA-GOV (Strategies 360): Jay Inslee (D) 46, Rob McKenna (R) 46

NH-GOV (Univ. of New Hampshire): Maggie Hassan (D) 43, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 35, Others 4

UT-GOV (Key Research): Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 65, Peter Cooke (D) 19