The Polling Report [10.25.12]
Mark Halperin: “Chicago remains sufficiently funded and emboldened by its own polling to compete for the final two weeks in all nine of the battlegrounds: Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia in the South; New Hampshire in the North; Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and Nevada and Colorado in the West. As they have in the past, Obama campaign officials say they expect to win a high percentage of those states and conceivably could sweep all nine.”
“When pressed, the Obama officials with whom I met said that five of the nine stand out: Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. In that quintet, Democrats believe the combination of their current leads in polling, early voting (where applicable), and ground game makes their chances of winning even greater there than in the other four. And given the Electoral College math, unless Romney picks off one or more of those five states, Obama would win a minimum of 281 electoral votes and re-election.”
As Greg Sargent notes, the polling averages show Obama leading in each of those states as well.
The polls today also show Obama leading where it counts:
NATIONAL POLLS
Gallup: Romney 50, Obama 47; Obama 48, Romney 47 (RV) — The Romney collapse in Gallup begins
RAND: Obama 49, Romney 45
Rasmussen: Romney 50, Obama 46
Public Policy Polling: Obama 48, Romney 48
UPI/CVoter: Obama 49, Romney 47
ABC/WaPo Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 48
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 44
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)
Pharos Research: Obama 50, Romney 47
STATE POLLS
ARKANSAS (Univ. of Arkansas): Romney 53, Obama 34–STRONG ROMNEY
CONNECTICUT (Mason-Dixon): Obama 49, Romney 42
CONNECTICUT (Quinnipiac): Obama 55, Romney 41
The average is Obama 52, Romney 41.5, or STRONG OBAMA.
FLORIDA (Pharos Research): Obama 47, Romney 47–TIED
INDIANA (Pharos Research): Romney 51, Obama 38–STRONG ROMNEY
MASSACHUSETTS (WBUR/MassINC): Obama 56, Romney 36–STRONG OBAMA
MONTANA (Pharos Research): Romney 47, Obama 41–LEAN ROMNEY
NEBRASKA (Pharos Research): Romney 51, Obama 41–STRONG ROMNEY
NEVADA (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47–SLIM OBAMA
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Lake Research): Obama 48, Romney 45–SLIM OBAMA
NEW YORK (NY1/Marist): Obama 61, Romney 35–STRONG OBAMA
NORTH DAKOTA (Pharos Research): Romney 49, Obama 39–STRONG ROMNEY
OHIO (Lake Research–D): Obama 46, Romney 44
OHIO (Pharos Research): Obama 50, Romney 45
OHIO (SRBI for Time Magazine): Obama 49, Romney 44
OHIO (SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 44
The average of our four Ohio polls today is Obama 48, Romney 44.25, or SLIM OBAMA. But I must say, that is some consistency there.
PENNSYLVANIA (Pharos Research): Obama 49, Romney 46–SLIM OBAMA
VIRGINIA (Old Dominion University): Obama 50, Romney 43
VIRGINIA (Newsmax/Zogby): Obama 49, Romney 46
The average is Obama 49.5, Romney 44.5, or LEAN OBAMA
WISCONSIN (Mason Dixon): Obama 48, Romney 46–SLIM OBAMA
SENATE POLLS
CA-SEN (USC/Los Angeles Times): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 53, Elizabeth Emken (R) 38–STRONG DEM
CT-SEN (Mason-Dixon): Linda McMahon (R) 44, Chris Murphy (D) 44
CT-SEN (Quinnipiac): Chris Murphy (D) 49, Linda McMahon (R) 43
The average is Murphy 46.5, McMahon 43.5, or SLIM DEM
FL-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 44–LEAN DEM
IN-SEN (Pharos Research): Richard Mourdock (R) 46, Joe Donnelly (D) 46–TIED
MA-SEN (WBUR/MassINC): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44–LEAN DEM
MT-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 46–SLIM DEM
NE-SEN (Pharos Research): Deb Fischer (R) 48, Bob Kerrey (D) 45–SLIM GOP
NV-SEN (PPP): Shelley Berkley (D) 44, Sen. Dean Heller (R) 44, David VanderBeek (IAP) 7–TIED
NY-SEN (NY1/Marist): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 68, Wendy Long (R) 24–STRONG DEM
ND-SEN (Pharos Research): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 49, Rick Berg (R) 48–SLIM DEM
OH-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 52, Josh Mandel (R) 41
OH-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 43, Josh Mandel (R) 42
The average is Brown 47.5, Mandel 41.5, or LEAN DEM
PA-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 42, Tom Smith (R) 42
PA-SEN (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 45, Tom Smith (R) 44
The average is Casey 43.5, Smith 43, or SLIM DEM
VA-SEN (Old Dominion University): Tim Kaine (D) 50, George Allen (R)43–LEAN DEM
WI-SEN (Mason Dixon): Tammy Baldwin (D) 47, Tommy Thompson (R) 45–SLIM DEM
GOVERNOR POLLS
MT-GOV (Pharos Research): Steve Bullock (D) 47, Rick Hill (R) 45–SLIM DEM
ND-GOV (Pharos Research): Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) 63, Ryan Taylor (D) 32–STRONG GOP
WA-GOV (Elway Research): Rob McKenna (R) 47, Jay Inslee (D) 45–SLIM GOP
BHO back to 59% on intrade and a 71% chance of winning at “538.”
Colin Powell once again endorses Obama.
I just checked hundreds of polls and took their averages over the last 10 days or so. Your Map is Wrong.
Rusty, your stupidity seems bottomless. I’m sure it isn’t, but I’m not sure we want to send James Cameron to find out.
Rusty, if you hate it here so much you are free to leave at any time. My map is accurate in that it reflects the most recent poll in each state. If that troubles you, and you want to comfort yourself with averages, then please live this fantasy bubble you have constructed for yourself.
Tell me, Rusty, when President Obama wins reelection on November 6 with over 330 electoral votes, what falsehood or conspiracy theory will you seek refuge in?
@J “BHO back to 59% on intrade and a 71% chance of winning at “538.””
He just broke 63%. Another good polling day for Obama.
Delaware dem, as strong as powell’ S endorsement is, it was trumped today by newspaper endorsements of Romney in 7 states, and the district of colunbia, including virginia, and colorado
Delaware dem, i do not hate it hear, i am just trying to teach you how to be more objective. If you can accomplish this, you will live a happier life, and make more money, mostly cause you won’ T be so surorised from world events. You will be able to better discrimnate from mith and reality, hence, be much more in control of your own life, and less dependent on others. It all starts with improving how objective you are
Rusty–
Do you know anyone who chooses a President based on a newspaper’s endorsement?
I don’t.
I also don’t know anyone who gives a shit who Colin Powell votes for.
In the words of Columbo, just one more thing, the obvious flaw in your electoral map is proven by yourself del dem, you show a few national polls, some favoring obama, and some favoring romney, in general, a close race, or tie. Yet your electoral votes show obama with approximatly 60 percent more electoral votes than romney. That is a physical impossibility, it can not happen. Ask anyone that knows basic arithmatic.
Rusty–
You lose credibility when you can’t spell a simple word like “arithmetic” and you can’t understand that Electoral College votes are not dependent on the popular vote. Do you remember how your boy GWB was “elected”? Hint: He lost the popular (or “national” if you prefer) vote.
@RDL “You lose credibility when you can’t spell a simple word…”
I was wondering about his use of “mith”. Was he going for “myth” or “mirth”?
Considering what he’s selling, I’m going with “mirth’.
BTW… Hasn’t anyone here noticed that a hurricane is making a bee line towards Delaware… a direct hit is predicted.