Mark Halperin: “Chicago remains sufficiently funded and emboldened by its own polling to compete for the final two weeks in all nine of the battlegrounds: Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia in the South; New Hampshire in the North; Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and Nevada and Colorado in the West. As they have in the past, Obama campaign officials say they expect to win a high percentage of those states and conceivably could sweep all nine.”
“When pressed, the Obama officials with whom I met said that five of the nine stand out: Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. In that quintet, Democrats believe the combination of their current leads in polling, early voting (where applicable), and ground game makes their chances of winning even greater there than in the other four. And given the Electoral College math, unless Romney picks off one or more of those five states, Obama would win a minimum of 281 electoral votes and re-election.”
As Greg Sargent notes, the polling averages show Obama leading in each of those states as well.
The polls today also show Obama leading where it counts:
NATIONAL POLLS
Gallup: Romney 50, Obama 47; Obama 48, Romney 47 (RV) — The Romney collapse in Gallup begins
RAND: Obama 49, Romney 45
Rasmussen: Romney 50, Obama 46
Public Policy Polling: Obama 48, Romney 48
UPI/CVoter: Obama 49, Romney 47
ABC/WaPo Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 48
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 44
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)
Pharos Research: Obama 50, Romney 47
STATE POLLS
ARKANSAS (Univ. of Arkansas): Romney 53, Obama 34–STRONG ROMNEY
CONNECTICUT (Mason-Dixon): Obama 49, Romney 42
CONNECTICUT (Quinnipiac): Obama 55, Romney 41
The average is Obama 52, Romney 41.5, or STRONG OBAMA.
FLORIDA (Pharos Research): Obama 47, Romney 47–TIED
INDIANA (Pharos Research): Romney 51, Obama 38–STRONG ROMNEY
MASSACHUSETTS (WBUR/MassINC): Obama 56, Romney 36–STRONG OBAMA
MONTANA (Pharos Research): Romney 47, Obama 41–LEAN ROMNEY
NEBRASKA (Pharos Research): Romney 51, Obama 41–STRONG ROMNEY
NEVADA (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47–SLIM OBAMA
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Lake Research): Obama 48, Romney 45–SLIM OBAMA
NEW YORK (NY1/Marist): Obama 61, Romney 35–STRONG OBAMA
NORTH DAKOTA (Pharos Research): Romney 49, Obama 39–STRONG ROMNEY
OHIO (Lake Research–D): Obama 46, Romney 44
OHIO (Pharos Research): Obama 50, Romney 45
OHIO (SRBI for Time Magazine): Obama 49, Romney 44
OHIO (SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 44
The average of our four Ohio polls today is Obama 48, Romney 44.25, or SLIM OBAMA. But I must say, that is some consistency there.
PENNSYLVANIA (Pharos Research): Obama 49, Romney 46–SLIM OBAMA
VIRGINIA (Old Dominion University): Obama 50, Romney 43
VIRGINIA (Newsmax/Zogby): Obama 49, Romney 46
The average is Obama 49.5, Romney 44.5, or LEAN OBAMA
WISCONSIN (Mason Dixon): Obama 48, Romney 46–SLIM OBAMA
SENATE POLLS
CA-SEN (USC/Los Angeles Times): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 53, Elizabeth Emken (R) 38–STRONG DEM
CT-SEN (Mason-Dixon): Linda McMahon (R) 44, Chris Murphy (D) 44
CT-SEN (Quinnipiac): Chris Murphy (D) 49, Linda McMahon (R) 43
The average is Murphy 46.5, McMahon 43.5, or SLIM DEM
FL-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 44–LEAN DEM
IN-SEN (Pharos Research): Richard Mourdock (R) 46, Joe Donnelly (D) 46–TIED
MA-SEN (WBUR/MassINC): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44–LEAN DEM
MT-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 46–SLIM DEM
NE-SEN (Pharos Research): Deb Fischer (R) 48, Bob Kerrey (D) 45–SLIM GOP
NV-SEN (PPP): Shelley Berkley (D) 44, Sen. Dean Heller (R) 44, David VanderBeek (IAP) 7–TIED
NY-SEN (NY1/Marist): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 68, Wendy Long (R) 24–STRONG DEM
ND-SEN (Pharos Research): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 49, Rick Berg (R) 48–SLIM DEM
OH-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 52, Josh Mandel (R) 41
OH-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 43, Josh Mandel (R) 42
The average is Brown 47.5, Mandel 41.5, or LEAN DEM
PA-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 42, Tom Smith (R) 42
PA-SEN (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 45, Tom Smith (R) 44
The average is Casey 43.5, Smith 43, or SLIM DEM
VA-SEN (Old Dominion University): Tim Kaine (D) 50, George Allen (R)43–LEAN DEM
WI-SEN (Mason Dixon): Tammy Baldwin (D) 47, Tommy Thompson (R) 45–SLIM DEM
GOVERNOR POLLS
MT-GOV (Pharos Research): Steve Bullock (D) 47, Rick Hill (R) 45–SLIM DEM
ND-GOV (Pharos Research): Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) 63, Ryan Taylor (D) 32–STRONG GOP
WA-GOV (Elway Research): Rob McKenna (R) 47, Jay Inslee (D) 45–SLIM GOP