Year: 2012

So, the polling shows that the Dems will pick up Maine (assuming Independent Angus King caucuses with the Dems), Massachusetts and Indiana. The Republicans are likely, based on recent polling, to pick up Montana, North Dakota and Nebraska. If the polling is correct, then the Senate will stay the same, with 53 Democrats and Independents to 47 Republicans. It is quite possible, even probable, that the Dems will retain their seats in Montana and North Dakota. Both races are very close. If that happens, the Dems will increase their majority to either 54 or 55 seats. Those are the projections. Here is my prediction: I think Jon Tester wins in Montana, and I agree with the rest of the polling, so I predict that the Dems pick up 1 seat, and the new Senate will be 54-46. As for the House, that is harder to predict or project. The Democrats currently have 193 seats, and the GOP has the majority with 242 seats. With 435 seats in the House, the Dems will need to get to 218 to have a majority, a net gain of 25 seats. Can they do it?

Recent national polls show that independents are moving back to the President. A Zogby poll finds Obama has picked up five points among independents, while the latest national Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows Obama turning a longtime disadvantage with independents into a 49% to 44% advantage. Furthermore, a new national ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows Obama and Romney deadlocked with independents, at 46% each, matching Obama's best showing among that group in that survey and coming after Romney had reached a high of 58% just a week and a half earlier. Finally, the Politico/GWU tracking poll finds the two men essentially tied with independents just a week after Romney held a double-digit lead with them. Here is our map based on all the most recent polls below. As you can see, Colorado has moved back to the Obama column, and Florida back to the Romney column. Those two swing states have been the swingiest all campaign. I think Obama has the edge in Colorado and Romney, due to the illegal and immoral actions of the fascist Governor Rick Skeletor Scott, has the edge in Florida. Personally, I actually think Obama is going to win North Carolina due to the early voting lead he has, while Florida remains a true toss up. Indeed, the polling average of all the polls in Florida released yesterday show 48.89 for Romney and 48.22 for Obama. It doesn't get much closer than that.

I've reached the point where Florida officials have to admit they're deliberately suppressing the vote (cheating) or admit they are completely incompetent and resign immediately. Perhaps it's time to move control of elections to the Federal level, because this is obviously something certain states can't handle.  Let's make Florida Department of Elections a ward of the court - after all, how many times has Florida screwed this up?  There shouldn't be this many different rules (and political games by Republicans) to vote.

I don't expect DC-bubble-dwelling-incumbent Democratic-shitheads like Tom Carper to ever get it, but pretending to be a Republican is unpopular among voters - while pretending to be a Democrat is popular. The proof is all around us. Even this Presidential election confirms it.

Above you will see all my predictions for the 21 Senate races to be decided this Tuesday. Nine races are basically decided. Six Senators are unopposed completely: Senators Margaret Rose Henry, Bob Marshall, Dave McBride, Karen Peterson, Bethany Hall Long, and Brian Bushweller. Senators Colin Bonini, Harris McDowell, and Patti Blevins only have third party opposition, and all three will win easily. So we are already at 8 Democrats, and 1 Republican. 11 seats are needed for a majority. For the Dems, that means three to go.