The Polling Report [11.4.12]

Team Romney is already offering excuses for their upcoming loss on Tuesday. And some campaign insiders are in full CYA mode in speaking on the record to Politico saying that Romney's first choice for Vice President was Chris Christie, rather than Paul Ryan. I suppose they could also be trying to latch onto Christie's recent bipartisan and excellent performance during the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, but instead it looks like a tell tale sign of campaign already in the post mortem mode. Speaking of Sandy:
Campaign sources concede superstorm Sandy stalled Romney's momentum. For eight straight days, polls showed him picking up support. The campaign's internal polling, which is using different turnout models than most public polls, had him on solid ground in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa. He had a slight lead or was tied in Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin and was in striking distance in Pennsylvania, a state Republicans hadn't won since Ronald Reagan in 1984. ... But then came something very big: a natural disaster that left a path of death and destruction on the East Coast. Suddenly, there was little talk about small things.
Yeah, I would like to see what the Romney campaign's turnout model is. I suppose they are like most of the right wing and assume that a 2010 electorate will show up, rather than a presidential year electorate. What morons.

Saturday Open Thread [11.3/12]

Last weekend before the election! Lots of folks I know are out on the final canvas -- off to PA to knock on doors for Obama or here walking for local candidates. What are you doing this weekend to get your favorite candidates elected?

The Final Predictions I: The Delaware Statewides

Over the course of the next three days, I will be doing several Final Prediction posts. First up, we will have the statewide races for Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senator and U.S. Representative and Insurance Commissioner, with the New County County Executive and Council President races thrown in for good measure. Tomorrow I will cover the General Assembly, both the Delaware Senate and Delaware House. Monday, we will make our final predictions in the U.S. Senate races, and then finally on Tuesday morning, we will have our final polling report, with the final prediction as to who will win the Presidency. I will also, where applicable, let you know who I am voting for. The only real question in the Statewide races is a question of margin. All the Democrats above will win, even though I will not be voting for all them.

The Polling Report [11.3.12]

We have two conflicting polls out of Florida. One has Obama leading 49-47. The other has Romney winning 51-45. That is a pretty wide disparity. One of the pollsters is wrong. Regardless, the average of the two gives Romney a slim 2 point lead, and so the state moves back to the pink zone. Meanwhile, Obama's lead in Ohio is growing ever larger.

UPDATED: NYC Marathon Canceled (Previously Titiled: Not Canceling The NYC Marathon Is A Mistake)

The reasons given for not canceling the marathon seem to be it will be good for morale and that it generates money. Well, I'm not sure how you can count on money when many people can't get into the city and the morale argument seems to only apply to those able to attend the event - not those whose communities are still suffering.  Also, using the police and other city service personnel for anything other than Hurricane relief seems ridiculous - not to mention really bad optics. But I could be missing something.  What do you think? UPDATED:  NYC MARATHON NOW CANCELED

The Polling Report [11.2.12]

I think we are looking at our final map here, folks. Obama has come on in Florida, but it is still possible that Romney can win that state. In fact, I think Nate Silver gives the odds to Romney there. Meanwhile, it is also possible that Obama can win in North Carolina, but that is much less likely that Romney winning Florida. Why am I so confident on Obama winning Florida, you ask? Yesterday, a Democratic operative sent the Tampa Bay Times some data on the early vote in Florida so far "to make the point that President Obama is crushing Mitt Romney when it comes to banking the votes of sporadic and infrequent voters before election day."
"So far more than 3 million Floridians have cast a ballot by absentee, mail-in ballot or in-person early vote ballot. Democrats lead by more than 60,000 votes, but it's the unlikely voter numbers that jump out: Of the nearly 414,000 Floridians who did not vote in the last three general elections, Democrats have an advantage of more than 53,000 votes. Of the more than 482,000 Floridians who have only voted in one of the last three general elections, Democrats lead by more than 77,000 -- a total of more than 132,000."