The Polling Report [2.15.13]

Neil Newhouse, the Romney/Ryan lead pollster, warned Republicans to beware of President Obama’s use of the bully pulpit this election cycle and to not count on the so-called six-year itch in the 2014 midterm election (the six year itch refers to loses by the President’s party in the second midterm of a 8 year presidency).

Said Newhouse: “I kind of emphasized to the members that second midterm elections have never been friendly to the president. You can’t count on that. That’s not going to happen. We’ve got to realize that the House Republicans are going to be Obama’s top target.”

I think he is right. The SOTU was designed and the issues therein framed with 2014 in mind. Plus, the Six Year Itch was proven wrong in 1998 when a Democratic President was faced with an extreme obstructionist Congress that resorted to outrageous never before thought of measures. Democrats gained seats in Congress that year. So Newhouse is right to caution his brethen in this extreme obstructionist Congress that has resorted to outrageous never before thought of measures. But, given Newhouse’s horrible performance as a pollster for the Romney campaign (he led Romney and the entire Fox News bubble to believe that Romney was headed for a massive landslide), it is quite likely Republicans will ignore him. Which is excellent news for us.

IOWA–SENATE–U.S. Agriculture Secretary and former Governor Tom Vilsack takes a pass on running for Tom Harkin’s soon-to-be open Senate seat. That leaves us with Rep. Braley, who is doing very well in the polls.

MASSACHUSETTS–SENATE–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–WBUR: Rep. Ed Markey (D) 38, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) 31 with 4% prefering another candidate and 26% still undecided.

NEW JERSEY–GOVERNOR APPROVAL–Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll: Gov. Chris Christie (R) has an approval rate at 70% and just 17% disapproving. Christie even has a 58% job approval rating from Democrats and 60% from public employees. Too bad he will never win a GOP nomination.

NEW JERSEY–SENATE–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), 89, is retiring. Roll Call reports on the coming classic primary:

“It’s man vs. the machine: Newark Mayor Cory Booker and Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. are on track to have a New Jersey-style knockout primary for the Democratic Senate nod in 2014. This brewing political battle would match an outsider with an army of Twitter followers, wealthy celebrity connections and television news fame against a congressman who has spent years currying favor with the state establishment to run for this very seat.”

LOUISIANIA–SENATE–PPP: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 46, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne (R) 43; Landrieu 48, Rep. Charles Boustany (R) 42; Landrieu 49, Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) 41; Landrieu 48, ex-Rep. Jeff Landry (R) 39; Landrieu 48, Rep. Steve Scalise (R) 38; Landrieu 50, Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) 40; Landrieu 50, Rep. John Fleming (R) 38

KENTUCKY–SENATE–Harper Polling (R): Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 49, Ashley Judd (D) 40

NATIONAL–STATE OF THE UNION SPEECH–CNN/ORC: 77% of those watching President Obama’s State of the Union had a somewhat or very positive view of the address, while 22% had a negative response.

NATIONAL–STATE OF THE UNION SPEECH–Public Policy Polling: 67% of those who said they watched the State of the Union approved of Obama’s speech while 33% disapproved. Seventy-two percent of women and 62 percent of men said they approved of the address.

NATIONAL–GUN CONTROL–Quinnipac: 92% of Americans, including 89% of Republicans, support requiring a background check for all would be gun buyers. 56% support banning assault weapons and high capacity magazine clips.