The 62 District Strategy – Early 2014 Edition

The 62 District Strategy – Early 2014 Edition

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Today, if I had to give you my opinion on which Senate seats will be competitive and which will not, I honestly think only one will be: the 6th. Ernie Lopez faces a potential primary, and will apparently face a spirited challenge from Democrat Claire Synder Hall. If Lopez loses to Urquhart, then this seat becomes a Lean Democrat race. If it stays Lopez v. Synder Hall, then it is a Lean Republican race with a chance to become a true toss up. Now, you may be wondering why I don't think the 4th SD will be competitive, especially since Lavelle barely beat former Senator Katz last time, 50.1 to 47.5. Well, I believe that race was close because it was against an incumbent (Katz) who did his best to swing to the right after being the progressive challenger to former Senate President Pro Tem Tony Deluca. He had to swing to the right because Deluca made his district much more Republican in redistricting as revenge for the leadership challenge, which, ironically, ended up costing Deluca his own seat. So, now the district is more Republican. There is now no Democratic incumbent in office. Lavelle is in the Republican Leadership. He is very vocal and visible in the paper and on the radio. Thus, unless a major Democrat challenges him, I don't see Lavelle losing this seat for a while.
Tuesday Open Thread 9.17.13

Tuesday Open Thread 9.17.13

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Noam Scheiber expects a government shutdown on October 1, and he thinks it will be a good thing since it will sober up the Republicans ahead of the debt ceiling vote.
Fortunately, a shutdown is almost certainly a good thing. Yes, it can slow the economy and wreak temporary havoc on people who rely on government services. But these consequences are nothing alongside the fallout from defaulting on our debt, which will happen if we don’t raise the debt ceiling by mid-October. That's why Boehner's inability to persuade conservatives to postpone their Obamacare demands until the debt-ceiling fight is in fact a hugely welcome development. It gives everyone a chance to sober up before we take on the substantially higher-stakes proposition of avoiding a debt default. In fact, if Boehner and the White House had both been a bit more pro-shutdown back in 2011, when this whole B-movie horror flick started, that year’s debt ceiling fight and the sequester may never have happened, and we might not be in the mess we’re in today. A little bit of shutdown, I’d wager, goes a long way.
CRI – Development Director Position Opening

CRI – Development Director Position Opening

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Do you know someone who would be interested in helping CRI lie about climate change? Are you a hardened misanthrope who would not mind advancing the extreme anti-middle class views of the Koch brothers under the ruse of being a think tank? If so consider joining CRI as our Development Director. This position can be part-time if needed, since most of the CRI's funding comes from large undisclosed donors. Some experience in selling ones soul to the devil is preferred. For more information please contact Jim Ursomarso at j.ursomarso@att.net or call 302-573-5227. Thank you.