The 62 District Strategy – Early 2014 Edition
Here are the Senate and House Charts for all the General Assembly races up in 2014. As you may know, all of the House seats are up as their terms are only for two years. In the Senate, Senators are elected for four year terms. Every two years, half of the Senate’s 21 seats are elected. Here are the seats that are up for election in 2014:
Today, if I had to give you my opinion on which seats will be competitive and which will not, I honestly think only one will be: the 6th. Ernie Lopez faces a potential primary, and will apparently face a spirited challenge from Democrat Claire Synder Hall. If Lopez loses to Urquhart, then this seat becomes a Lean Democrat race. If it stays Lopez v. Synder Hall, then it is a Lean Republican race with a chance to become a true toss up.
Now, you may be wondering why I don’t think the 4th SD will be competitive, especially since Lavelle barely beat former Senator Katz last time, 50.1 to 47.5. Well, I believe that race was close because it was against an incumbent (Katz) who did his best to swing to the right after being the progressive challenger to former Senate President Pro Tem Tony Deluca. He had to swing to the right because Deluca made his district much more Republican in redistricting as revenge for the leadership challenge, which, ironically, ended up costing Deluca his own seat. So, now the district is more Republican. There is now no Democratic incumbent in office. Lavelle is in the Republican Leadership. He is very vocal and visible in the paper and on the radio. Thus, unless a major Democrat challenges him, I don’t see Lavelle losing this seat for a while.
You may also think Senator Bryan Townsend will get a challenge from either some Democratic friends of Deluca or from a more serious Republican than Evan Q, given that this is his first reelection race, and given his well known status as a potential rising star in the Democratic Party. Well, so far, he has no challengers. So we will keep an eye of this seat, but in the end I don’t think it will be competitive.
Given Bethany Hall Long and Brian Bushweller’s votes for gay marriage and other issues this past session, I can see where they might be seriously challenged this time around. And given their districts, it is possible that such Republican challenges could be competitive. But again, we will have to wait and see if that develops.
Finally, is Bob Venables retiring or not? I remember last year there being either reports or rumors that Bob would run in 2012 but retire before 2014. As you can see from the relatively close margins in 2012 (56% to 43%), Venables might be losing his hold on the district, and given his age, it might be time to hang it up. Indeed, I would expect that the GOP Nominee from 2012, Bryant Richardson, to run again Here is what El Som said about him last year:
At some point soon, this district will flip to the R’s. […] The venerable Bob Venables is well-liked in this southwestern Sussex district. There is a nominal D registration edge, 10671 D; 9979 R; and 5516 I. Venables’ personal popularity has always eclipsed registration, though, and he has a lot of supporters who are not D’s. He is actually a generous and kind-hearted guy, even though he sometimes sounds like the Senator from Mars. He also has a lot of power and pull on the Bond Committee. And he does go out of his way to help constituents, sometimes more than he perhaps should. Bryant Richardson publishes weekly newspapers in the district’s largest towns–Laurel and Seaford. Very active in the Chamber of Commerce. At some point, he’ll likely be the senator from this district, should he continue his political path.
So if Venables retires, it is an instant GOP pickup, and not even a competitive race. If Venables runs again, then it will be a somewhat competitive. So why don’t I expect this race to be competitive? Because I expect Venables will retire.
For the GOP to gain the three seats they need for an 11-10 majority, they will need to pick up the 21st (Venables), successfully defend the 6th (Lopez), successfully defend the 4th (Lavelle) and then win two of the following three: 10th (Hall Long), 11th (Townsend), and 17th (Bushweller).
I see them only winning the 21st right now. Which means the Republicans gain one seat for a new margin of 12-9.
Here is the House chart:
I cannot even judge the competitiveness of these races until we see how is running or not. The GOP needs 7 seats to gain a majority.
Good stuff. I think you’re right on the Senate races, except I think that Lopez might be a bit stronger than you do. I don’t see any problems for Townsend, Bushweller, or Hall Long.
The House is another story. There are always city primaries, and Charles Potter, in particular, looks especially vulnerable to me.
Dennis E. Williams, he of the shifting leadership vote, faces a rematch with 2012 challenger Sean Matthews, who got 47.2%. And that was before Williams’ late vote switch cost neighboring Brandywine Hundred Rep. Bryon Short the House Majority leadership position.
R’s have told me that longtime Greenville Rep. Deborah Hudson will face a strong primary challenger.
R’s and D’s alike shake their heads at the behavior of first-term R representative Jeffrey Speigelman, who won a razor-thin victory in a newly-created Middletown area district. Great chance for a D pickup.
I also see both Ruth Briggs King and John Atkins as vulnerable from Sussex County.
And that’s about it. Of course, there are always a couple of additional retirements, which may lead to competitive races. Plus, who knows? Maybe Melanie George Smith ends up in the judiciary branch following the upcoming game of musical chairs created by the retirement of Supreme Court Chief Justice Myron Steele.
Lopez will not be facing Glen Urquhart in a primary, Urquhart has been beaten into submission (I thank his Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, for that).
Mark Baker, PGA puppet and Glen Urquhart look-a-like, backed by insane Cape School Board member Sandi Minard, will be Lopez’s challenger on the right. Baker, if you recall, beat Judson Bennett in the Republican primary for the 3rd Sussex County Seat only to lose in the general to Joan Deaver.
The only advantage that Baker has over Glen Urquhart against Lopez is that Baker has no (known) crazy Nazi statements. Baker is a weak candidate, he has no charisma and spends political functions cowering in a corner with nut job Sandi Minard and her smelly Tea Party shack up. Lopez will scrape Baker off of his shoe like dog poo and go on to beat the Democrat, who is completely unknown outside of Rehoboth.
The stronger D candidate against Lopez would be Andy Staton, who ran an excellent campaign in 2012 only to be derailed at the last minute by an incompetent DC PAC that sent out mailers that rallied the community behind Lopez. Sans the PAC stupidity, Stanton, IMHO, would have won.
Brian Bushweller is telling everyone he is retiring after this term, his district can go either way. Venables will only retire when the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse show up to drag his ancient body out of Legislative Hall.
I’m willing to bet Bryan Townsend gets no opponent (no opponent includes Evan Q. again or another 3rd Party challenger).
Spiegelman is a real piece of work, he really pushes the agenda of the national right wing, he is truly crazy. On the other hand, I think alot of Brian Bushweller, and I hope that our activists come out strong for senator Bushweller. Andy Staton would be a good candidate against Lopez in a rematch.
Bob Rhodunda has already announced that he will run against Dennis E. Williams again in the 10th, and Rhodunda is already fundraising.
Ruth Briggs King is safe. John Atkins faced his toughest challenge against Rich Collins in the 41st (which is ground zero for the Tea Party), and if Collins doesn’t run again, there’s no one else in the District that can touch John.
Is this the cycle that Bobby Marshall retires? There seem to be a few folks in the wings talking about running if he does. Or I should say — had plans if he retired to run for Mayor last cycle.
Rhodunda will be making his third run for the seat. Not sure whether he’d have a better chance against Williams or Matthews.
Even if Bushweller retires, we’re looking at a district with close to a 2-1 D registration edge: 14,840 D; 7221 R and 7018 I. Kent County is not Sussex County, especially this Dover-based district, Bushweller’s district was made safer D in 2012, just as Bonini’s district was made safer R. A credible D candidate should keep this seat blue.
If Lopez makes it past Baker, he’s home free. Snyder-Hall may be spirited, but well-known she’s not outside of the LGBT community. And that district is large enough that that’s not always a good selling point.
RBK in the 37th does not have G’town /LEWES. The 37th USED to be that
Now it’s G’town/ long neck……more MILLSBORO ….a totally different kettle of fish.
Smyck is in the correct area…..
Unless you went by zip codes, then I understand why you divided it that way- but two reps in LEWES looks confusing
Long Neck is , we’ll……,,Long neck. Nuff said.
I disagree about Lopez being home free if he gets past a primary. He is working to make everyone happy which usually just annoys people.
That Bobby Marshall seat needs to go the Helen Keely. Nobody should have to put up with the public demotion she received from the new Speaker. It looked something like this…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toVIGUXya2E
Well, BC, she COULD be the new Speaker…depending on how things turn out.
While Senate leadership appears fairly secure, the House leadership is anything but.