Here are the Senate and House Charts for all the General Assembly races up in 2014. As you may know, all of the House seats are up as their terms are only for two years. In the Senate, Senators are elected for four year terms. Every two years, half of the Senate’s 21 seats are elected. Here are the seats that are up for election in 2014:
Today, if I had to give you my opinion on which seats will be competitive and which will not, I honestly think only one will be: the 6th. Ernie Lopez faces a potential primary, and will apparently face a spirited challenge from Democrat Claire Synder Hall. If Lopez loses to Urquhart, then this seat becomes a Lean Democrat race. If it stays Lopez v. Synder Hall, then it is a Lean Republican race with a chance to become a true toss up.
Now, you may be wondering why I don’t think the 4th SD will be competitive, especially since Lavelle barely beat former Senator Katz last time, 50.1 to 47.5. Well, I believe that race was close because it was against an incumbent (Katz) who did his best to swing to the right after being the progressive challenger to former Senate President Pro Tem Tony Deluca. He had to swing to the right because Deluca made his district much more Republican in redistricting as revenge for the leadership challenge, which, ironically, ended up costing Deluca his own seat. So, now the district is more Republican. There is now no Democratic incumbent in office. Lavelle is in the Republican Leadership. He is very vocal and visible in the paper and on the radio. Thus, unless a major Democrat challenges him, I don’t see Lavelle losing this seat for a while.
You may also think Senator Bryan Townsend will get a challenge from either some Democratic friends of Deluca or from a more serious Republican than Evan Q, given that this is his first reelection race, and given his well known status as a potential rising star in the Democratic Party. Well, so far, he has no challengers. So we will keep an eye of this seat, but in the end I don’t think it will be competitive.
Given Bethany Hall Long and Brian Bushweller’s votes for gay marriage and other issues this past session, I can see where they might be seriously challenged this time around. And given their districts, it is possible that such Republican challenges could be competitive. But again, we will have to wait and see if that develops.
Finally, is Bob Venables retiring or not? I remember last year there being either reports or rumors that Bob would run in 2012 but retire before 2014. As you can see from the relatively close margins in 2012 (56% to 43%), Venables might be losing his hold on the district, and given his age, it might be time to hang it up. Indeed, I would expect that the GOP Nominee from 2012, Bryant Richardson, to run again Here is what El Som said about him last year:
At some point soon, this district will flip to the R’s. […] The venerable Bob Venables is well-liked in this southwestern Sussex district. There is a nominal D registration edge, 10671 D; 9979 R; and 5516 I. Venables’ personal popularity has always eclipsed registration, though, and he has a lot of supporters who are not D’s. He is actually a generous and kind-hearted guy, even though he sometimes sounds like the Senator from Mars. He also has a lot of power and pull on the Bond Committee. And he does go out of his way to help constituents, sometimes more than he perhaps should. Bryant Richardson publishes weekly newspapers in the district’s largest towns–Laurel and Seaford. Very active in the Chamber of Commerce. At some point, he’ll likely be the senator from this district, should he continue his political path.
So if Venables retires, it is an instant GOP pickup, and not even a competitive race. If Venables runs again, then it will be a somewhat competitive. So why don’t I expect this race to be competitive? Because I expect Venables will retire.
For the GOP to gain the three seats they need for an 11-10 majority, they will need to pick up the 21st (Venables), successfully defend the 6th (Lopez), successfully defend the 4th (Lavelle) and then win two of the following three: 10th (Hall Long), 11th (Townsend), and 17th (Bushweller).
I see them only winning the 21st right now. Which means the Republicans gain one seat for a new margin of 12-9.
Here is the House chart:
I cannot even judge the competitiveness of these races until we see how is running or not. The GOP needs 7 seats to gain a majority.