Today, if I had to give you my opinion on which Senate seats will be competitive and which will not, I honestly think only one will be: the 6th. Ernie Lopez faces a potential primary, and will apparently face a spirited challenge from
Democrat Claire Synder Hall. If Lopez loses to Urquhart, then this seat becomes a Lean Democrat race. If it stays Lopez v. Synder Hall, then it is a Lean Republican race with a chance to become a true toss up.
Now, you may be wondering why I don't think the 4th SD will be competitive, especially since Lavelle barely beat former Senator Katz last time, 50.1 to 47.5. Well, I believe that race was close because it was against an incumbent (Katz) who did his best to swing to the right after being the progressive challenger to former Senate President Pro Tem Tony Deluca. He had to swing to the right because Deluca made his district much more Republican in redistricting as revenge for the leadership challenge, which, ironically, ended up costing Deluca his own seat. So, now the district is more Republican. There is now no Democratic incumbent in office. Lavelle is in the Republican Leadership. He is very vocal and visible in the paper and on the radio. Thus, unless a major Democrat challenges him, I don't see Lavelle losing this seat for a while.