![Wednesday Open Thread [10.29.14]](https://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GOP.No_.png)
"One, after portraying Obama as either incompetent, ruthless, or both, how do Republicans sell any kind of deal with Obama back to their base? That's the problem when your message, especially on the campaign trail, is entirely against the president. It makes cutting deals with him AFTER the election more difficult. Two, to pass legislation in the Senate, Mitch McConnell and Republicans will need to get 60 votes -- and that means placating the GOP conservatives (including those running for president next year), the GOP moderates (Susan Collins and the folks up for re-election in 2016 like Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, etc.), as well as centrist Democrats (Joe Manchin, Angus King, etc.). That won't be an easy task."And come inside for the Governor polls I promised yesterday...
![Tuesday Open Thread [10.28.14]](https://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/blackvote.jpg)
"How can the national polls look so bad for Democrats (see the NBC/WSJ/Annenberg and Washington Post/ABC polls), but the competitive Senate contests all be within the margin of error? Here's an answer for you: There are two different midterm environments taking place in the country a week before Election Day. The first is the nationwide one, where there does seem to be a wave building for Republicans and where the GOP has a huge enthusiasm advantage. The second election, however, is taking place in the top Senate and gubernatorial battlegrounds, where Democrats have spent a tremendous amount of money building field organizations and getting (as best they can) their side fired up." "This tale of two different midterm elections -- not too dissimilar from what we saw in 2012 where the national and battleground polls didn't match up -- also helps explain why House Democrats are in trouble in states not holding competitive races like in California, Minnesota and New York (after all, embattled GOP Rep. Michael Grimm could very well win)."We have a lot of Senate polls here today, and tons of Governor polls tomorrow...
Senate: Chris Coons 0.98 (0.98) - Kevin Wade 0.01 (0.02) House: John Carney 0.95 (0.99) - Rose Izzo 0.01 (0.01) Bernie August 0.04 (n/a) Attorney General: Matt Denn 0.95 (0.93) - Ted Kittila 0.05 (0.07) Treasurer: Chip Flowers 0.00 (0.39) - Sean Barney 0.48 (0.37) - Ken Simpler 0.48(0.17) - Sher Valenzuela 0.00 Auditor: Brenda Mayrack 0.48(0.43) - Tom Wagner 0.48 (0.47)You could have made some money in the Treasurers race. Shorting Flowers at 0.40 and taking a long position in Simpler at 0.15 was the winning move. As it stands now, other than simply guessing the Treasurer and Auditors races and winning the coin flip, I don't see any profitable moves left. Simpler, for example, appears to be at his max trading value. Smart traders will probably be taking their Simpler profits off the table. But hey, this is politics so do "smart traders" exist? For instance, somebody placed some sentimental money on Bernie August, bidding him up to 0.04. (Okay, it was me. There is still a week to go. Carney could still Bill Roth it.)
Underappreciated fact No. 1: The number of Democratic seats that are not in play this year. In planning its effort to take control of the Senate, Republicans shrewdly launched challenges to Democrats in states that would not automatically be on a GOP target list. "Broadening the map" is wise when you're in a strong position. Two of the states on that extended list, Colorado and Iowa, have paid off for Republicans. [...] Just as striking is how many Democrats seem to have nailed down races the Republicans had once hoped to make competitive. This has narrowed the GOP’s path to a majority. Among them: Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota, Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Rep. Gary Peters of Michigan, who is likely to retain Sen. Carl Levin’s seat. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia is also polling well, though he was always favored against former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire is in a tougher race with former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown, but she has led most of the way. [U]nderappreciated fact No. 2: How important economic issues have been in shoring up the party’s incumbents and in giving life to Democratic challengers in Georgia, Kentucky and (a much longer shot) South Dakota. [E]ndangered Democrats are campaigning on a different set of national concerns related to economic worries. These include equal pay for women, relief for student loan recipients and a minimum-wage increase. Several Democrats, including Shaheen and Michelle Nunn in Georgia, have made an issue of opposing the outsourcing of U.S. jobs overseas. [U]nderappreciated fact No. 3: Given Obama’s low approval ratings, Republicans could have been running away with this thing. They’re not, because they look more extreme and out of touch than they did four years ago.
* Is the State Auditor’s Office attending local job fairs? After not seeing the office on the list of attendees at a University of Delaware job fair for accounting students, we filed a Freedom of Information Act request for the State Auditor’s schedule: “For the year 2014, the public schedule of R. Thomas Wagner, Jr., including all meetings and public events.” The response from his office: “In order to construct information in response to request below and based what we have available in the Office, I estimate it will run approximately $1,191.” And that’s the cost for sending it by email so we didn’t incur any copying or mailing fees.
