Another Opinion on Barney-Simpler

Another Opinion on Barney-Simpler

I received another possible theory on how the Treasurer's race is developing from a source who wants to remain anonymous. I think it is interesting and plausible enough to post and get everyone else's opinion on it.
Simpler could totally win this, in part because of Dem overconfidence and lack of financial engagement. He's spent his independent money very smartly. He let the rich R's attack Sher from the right so he could immediately claim the moderate ground. Dems had been so focused on the the primary on their side, that they never forced Ken to stake out positions on divisive issues during the primary. So he can say whatever he wants now. The belief that Dems can't lose statewide mean nobody's pinning him down now, either. And he's got his own money and the relationship with WBOC to get up on TV, which really moves #s. The counterbalancing financial forces on the D side like AFSCME and Labor don't seem to take the Simpler threat seriously. People will regret it.

Wednesday Open Thread [10.22.14]

A Federal District Judge upheld Puerto Rico's marriage equality ban, saying that the U.S. Supreme Court's 1971 decision in Baker v. Nelson, which banned same sex marriage, or more accurately says such bans do not violate the Constitution, has not been explicitly overturned. That argument has never worked before in the Circuit Courts or before the Supreme Court itself in the DOMA or Prop 8 Cases, but now, if the corresponding Circuit Court upholds this decision (which is unlikely but possible), then we will finally have a ruling from the Supreme Court. Ian Millhiser expects the Puerto Rico decision will be reversed:
[W]hile Pérez-Giménez clearly holds very passionate views on the question of whether same-sex couples are entitled to the same rights as everyone else, his views are unlikely to persuade many of his fellow judges. It’s even possible that his opinion could ultimately wind up bolstering the case for marriage equality. That’s because his decision will appeal to the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, a court dominated by Democratic appointees (although, it is worth noting that Pérez-Giménez was appointed to the bench by President Jimmy Carter). All four of the states that comprise the First Circuit — Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island — are already marriage equality states, so a decision out of a federal court in Puerto Rico is the only path to bring a marriage equality case before this circuit. Given the makeup of the First Circuit, the overwhelming consensus among federal judges in favor of marriage equality, and the belligerent tone of Pérez-Giménez’s opinion, it is unlikely that his decision will be upheld on appeal.

I am confused by Jason’s Poll….

I am voting for Barney, because I will never vote for any living or dead Republican to handle the state's finances. Indeed, if you want to prove to me you are fiscally responsible, you cannot be a Republican. But I digress. I guess his question is measuring my enthusiasm in voting for Barney, where 10 is voting for Obama in 2008 and 1 is voting for Carper/Carney at any time. I am at a 5. Anyway, here is something humorous that Trey Paradee posted on Facebook....
The GOP’s coherent brand saves another suck-ass Republican candidate

The GOP’s coherent brand saves another suck-ass Republican candidate

When we lose in Kansas, beltway campaign gurus and Democrat Party (sic) insiders will say, "Kansas was always going to elect a Republican." They will not look at the fact that it was Republicans relentlessly promoting their core values and sticking to their coherent brand message that brought their candidate back from the dead.
Burn…

Burn…

NEWARK, DE – The Executive Director of the Delaware Republican Party, John Fluharty, just p---ed a b---r over this tid-bit.
Mayrack’s LinkedIn profile summary states that the candidate has “extensive experience in all aspects of unclaimed property advising.” However auditing itself—the primary job of the State Auditor—is not mentioned a single time.
Tom Wager has the word auditor on his linked in page, but it is enclosed in quotation marks. I'm Delaware's "auditor"

Tuesday Open Thread [10.21.14]

Here is our massive, and I do mean massive, polling dump from the last 10 days. ALASKA—GOVERNOR Rasmussen: Bill Walker (I) 50, Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 41 Hickman Analytics--R: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 46, Bill Walker (I) 38 CBS/YouGov: Bill Walker (I) 45, Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 40 ALASKA—SENATOR Hickman Analytics--R: Dan Sullivan (R) 46, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 41 Rasmussen: Dan Sullivan (R) 48, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 45 Come inside for more.......
Thank the utter suckitude of the Democrat Party (sic) for the Republican Senate

Thank the utter suckitude of the Democrat Party (sic) for the Republican Senate

Check this out...
The New Hampshire Senate race ... is closer than you might think. The three most recent nonpartisan polls — by New England College, SurveyUSA and WMUR — put Shaheen up by an average of 3 points. Her lead, which has tightened since the summer, is steady but it's narrow, and most polls have her below the 50 percent threshold. That's hardly safe territory.
She is running against a total douche bag in Scott Brown. And yet...
...Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race from "lean Democratic" to "tossup," deeming it one of 10 contests poised to determine Senate control.
How could that be?
Monday Open Thread [10.20.14]

Monday Open Thread [10.20.14]

Conservative columnist and climate change skeptic George F. Will baffled his fellow Fox News on Sunday panelists by insisting that scientists had not come to a consensus about whether Ebola could go airborne. Uh, Georgie poo, if Ebola was airborne, by now, the population of Dallas, Texas and Cleveland, Ohio, not to mention the whole continent of Africa, would be showing symptoms by now. I really am amazed at the conservative brain, or lack thereof. I mean, George Will is suppose to be one of their smart ones.
Is Sean Barney planning a late October surprise or something?

Is Sean Barney planning a late October surprise or something?

I'm asking, because I'm not seeing much campaigning. Is it me? Is Sean Barney absolutely crushing it outside of lower New Castle County? Granted, my interest in this campaign is minimal, so my political radar isn't constantly scanning the horizon - but that makes me a normal voter this round. Or maybe this is the strategy, keep a low profile and just ride the registration advantage to a win? If anyone has some insight into this race, I'd be eager to hear it.