Wednesday Open Thread [10.22.14]

Greg Sargent notices that “security moms” may be fearful of ISIS and Ebola, but they are not being scared into voting for one candidate or party as a result of that fear.

In a memo about the focus groups, Newhouse and Romero write that “Ebola has replaced ISIS as a worry about instability and government leadership.” But it is not a factor in their vote:

In our early September focus groups, ISIS was a dominant concern. It has almost been completely replaced by worries about Ebola…but they do not necessarily feel it is an imminent threat — that is, this is more of a threat to the country, not to them personally.

The CDC — somewhat more than Obama — takes most of the blame, for being “too relaxed” and unprepared. While Ebola is certainly lessening moms’ confidence in government, not one cites it as a reason to vote against (or for) Democrats in November.

A Federal District Judge upheld Puerto Rico’s marriage equality ban, saying that the U.S. Supreme Court’s 1971 decision in Baker v. Nelson, which banned same sex marriage, or more accurately says such bans do not violate the Constitution, has not been explicitly overturned. That argument has never worked before in the Circuit Courts or before the Supreme Court itself in the DOMA or Prop 8 Cases, but now, if the corresponding Circuit Court upholds this decision (which is unlikely but possible), then we will finally have a ruling from the Supreme Court.

Ian Millhiser expects the Puerto Rico decision will be reversed:

[W]hile Pérez-Giménez clearly holds very passionate views on the question of whether same-sex couples are entitled to the same rights as everyone else, his views are unlikely to persuade many of his fellow judges. It’s even possible that his opinion could ultimately wind up bolstering the case for marriage equality. That’s because his decision will appeal to the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, a court dominated by Democratic appointees (although, it is worth noting that Pérez-Giménez was appointed to the bench by President Jimmy Carter). All four of the states that comprise the First Circuit — Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island — are already marriage equality states, so a decision out of a federal court in Puerto Rico is the only path to bring a marriage equality case before this circuit.

Given the makeup of the First Circuit, the overwhelming consensus among federal judges in favor of marriage equality, and the belligerent tone of Pérez-Giménez’s opinion, it is unlikely that his decision will be upheld on appeal.