Fourth of July Open Thread [7.4.15]
A look at public opinion on same-sex marriage and what drives party affiliation suggests that Cruz, Walker and the other candidates on the right may be risking the party’s appeal in the general election. The Republican Party’s opposition to same-sex marriage is one of the top positions that may have kept voters from identifying with and potentially voting for the GOP.
They cannot help themselves, and politically, they need to do it to win over the bigoted Republican base.
The conventional wisdom is starting to coalesce around my thought that President Obama is the best President of my lifetime. Benjy Sarlin published a piece on the Obama legacy last weekend:
“At the end of the day, we’re part of a long-running story,” Obama told the New Yorker’s David Remnick in one interview. “We just try to get our paragraph right.”
Now consider what the paragraph version of Obama’s presidency looks like as of now, with the key terms for next week’s social studies midterm highlighted in bold.
“The first black president, President Obama took office amid the Great Recession, stabilized the economy with a stimulus and auto bailout, passed universal health care and Wall Street reform over fierce opposition, and implemented a suite of regulations aimed at combatting climate change. The first president to embrace marriage equality, he presided over the landmark Obergefell v. Hodges decision legalizing it nationwide.”
Steve Benen thinks that’s a “pretty impressive paragraph that suggets Obama will be remembered as a great and important president.”
Vox’s Dylan Matthews agreed last week that “there’s no longer any doubt: Barack Obama is one of the most consequential presidents in American history – and he will be a particularly towering figure in the history of American progressivism.”
When you consider the [ACA] in the context of 100 years of progressive activism, and in the grand scheme of American history, it starts to look less like a moderate reform and more like an epochal achievement, on the order of FDR’s passage of Social Security, or LBJ’s Great Society programs. It is, to quote Harvard political scientist Theda Skocpol, “a century-defining accomplishment in the last industrial democracy to resist using national government to ensure access to health coverage for most citizens.” FDR failed, Truman failed, Nixon failed, Carter failed, Clinton failed – and Obama succeeded. He filled in the one big remaining gap in the American welfare state when all his forerunners couldn’t.
And of course, the Affordable Care Act was hardly Obama’s only accomplishment. He passed a stimulus bill that included major reforms to the nation’s education system, big spending on clean energy, and significant expansions of anti-poverty programs. He shepherded through the Dodd-Frank Act, the first significant crackdown on Wall Street’s power in a generation, which has been far more successful than commonly acknowledged.
Andrew Sullivan was right. Obama is our Reagan. We will be looking back to Obama over the next 40 years.
A succinct summary of the importance of President Obama’s release of a new rule expanding eligibility for overtime pay — and a good message point for Democrats — from E. J. Dionne, Jr.’s syndicated column: “To much bellyaching from Republicans and business groups, Obama is putting forward new rules that would make up to 5 million more American workers eligible for overtime pay. He’s doing this by ending a scam through which employers designate even relatively low-paid workers as managers to get around the law, which requires an overtime premium after 40 hours per week…Under the current rules, as Obama wrote this week in The Huffington Post, workers earning as little as $23,660 a year can be robbed of overtime by being given supervisory or managerial designations. The new regulation would raise the threshold to a more plausible $50,440 a year.”
Jeffrey M. Jones reports on new Gallup poll findings bearing good news for Democrats: “In the second quarter of 2015, Democrats regained an advantage over Republicans in terms of Americans’ party affiliation. A total of 46% of Americans identified as Democrats (30%) or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party (16%), while 41% identified as Republicans (25%) or leaned Republican (16%). The two parties were generally even during the previous three quarters, including the fourth quarter of 2014, when the midterm elections took place.”
National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar sees Dems in good position to regain a Senate majority in 2016: “For this cycle, the map is difficult for Republicans, who are defending many more seats than their Democratic counterparts. Of the nine most-competitive Senate seats, seven are held by Republicans–and six feature sitting Republican senators. Eight of the races are being held in states that President Obama carried twice.” Kraushaar also argues that “Republican Senate candidates face the harsh reality that their party’s presidential nominees have a bigger impact on their reelection than their own campaigns.”
“He’s the nicest person I think I’ve ever met in politics. He is as good a man as God has ever created.” — Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), in an interview with the Huffington Post, on Vice President Joe Biden.
Obama isn’t done yet, but Obama will be contending with Bill Clinton for greatest president of my lifetime.
Clinton’s national prosperity gives Obama a tough hill to climb. Not only that, but it was a broadly shared prosperity. Sure the rich kept getting richer, but it seemed like everybody had a decent job, and could get another one if they wanted.
Clinton’s 2000 SOTU included the once-in-a-lifetime phrase “The state of the Union is the strongest it ever has been” and he was right. Obama needs to match that for the title.
I am aware of the left’s criticisms of Clinton, but Obama’s negatives cancel out Clinton’s negatives in my analysis. For me the big thing is Obama didn’t get his shit together until his second term. Obama wasn’t the Obama I voted for until 2013. Whereas Bill was the guy I voted for from Day One.
Sure… When he signed DOMA and pushed through NAFTA. Good stuff.
Puck, Obama has already far surpassed Clinton in my mind.
Well, if you are assigning weight to emotional opinions, then Reagan was our ,greatest president in a lot of minds (not mine).
But I am trying to be as objective as possible. Maybe if you don’t put TPP on the books yet, Obama is getting close.
They left out some Obama traits and ideologies. Traitor, Liar, Cheater, Socialist.
Oh, do explain (in detail), Rusty:
How is Obama a traitor?
How is Obama a liar?
How is Obama a cheater?
How is Obama a Socialist?
Traitor, his governing policies mostly help our enemies and harm us and our allies.
Liar, whenever his lips are moving
Cheater, Irs, unconstitutional executive orders.
Socialist, his policies harm the most productive, and help those who contribute the least.
From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs
Rusty – what institution are you posting this from?
Did a great job, in saving everyone money on healthcare! Can you say Jonathan Gruber
Allowing the influx of Illegals into the country and who is going to pay??
Continually tries to split this country.
Oh, he’s the greatest….what a joke. There is a lot of sugar in Kool-aid!
“Continually tries to split this country.”
This is the wingnut critique of President Obama that really cracks me up. The cluelessness goes to 11.
All I can say about Womens National Soccer team, gooooooal.! Congratulation to Womens world cup champions. I am a national “C” license soccer coach, and that was the best soccer match I have ever seen, youth, men, or Women, amateur or pro, go USA
Agreed. Common ground at last. Thank you Obama.
How come you people never say a word about the people who hire illegals? Because you admire them?
Rusty, like other so called conservatives, cannot provide any facts. The reason, facts don’t support their positions. That’s why the resort to name calling and vague nonsense.
“How come you people never say a word about the people who hire illegals? Because you admire them?”
Because policing this is not worth the money.
@ Geezer. So, it’s worth the money for Illegals to be working here?
It’s worth the money, that will be spent on Spanish-English classes, before they get their license. Oh, and the money spent on teaching them to drive? And who is going to pay for their insurance?
The individuals who employ illegals should be fined, the government is BIG enough to handle it.
No one knows who, is coming across the border. They could be from anywhere. And they should do it LEGALLY, just like everyone else!
Border security starts in the workplace. Turn off the jobs magnet. The cost will be minimal; just a few high-profile business shutdowns, and businesses will be falling over themselves to purge their workplaces of illegals.
I love immigrants. I hope they all go to the US consulate in their home country and pick up a visa application.
It is already illegal to employ people who are here illegally. Since 2009 the number of employer inspections has increased substantially. These inspections have not resulted in increased prosecutions. Also, there has been a 40% reduction in fines. https://www.oig.dhs.gov/assets/Mgmt/2014/OIG_14-33_Feb14.pdf
Sorry, but I don’t think the cost of enforcement is worth the price. Any study you can cite is full of assumptions about what the cost of lower wages comes to, but it’s all bogus, as the low wage/lower cost to business is an economic wash except for the wages transferred overseas; at any rate, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the trade deficit.
If we use the 12 million figure for illegals, half of them enter legally but overstay their visas. Are you under the impression these people are easy to track down? How long do you think it would take, per person, to find each one and deport him? A week? A month? A year? Where is the money for this going to come from?
I’ve never heard a good estimate, but I would guess it would take somewhere between $50 billion to $100 billion per year to root these people out and deport them, and the labor shortage that would create would make entering illegally even more lucrative.
The money spent teaching them to drive? WTF? Most people learn to drive without spending a dime. What makes you think immigrants couldn’t manage that?
@puck: The business owners who purposely hire illegals are the exception, not the rule; if you think otherwise, you are buying liberal myths.
I am no more interested in turning business owners into immigration officers than I am in having to produce my citizenship papers just because we have a country full of xenophobes seeking simple solutions and retribution from people with even less power than they have.
I would like to see the undocumented leave not because I don’t want them here but, to let the country see how much we depend on them. When the prices for food and services suddenly go through the roof maybe people will get a clue.
@puck: The business owners who purposely hire illegals are the exception, not the rule.
“purposely” is the loophole that makes illegal employment so widespread. I really don’t care what is on the business owner’s minds when they hire illegals. I just want the jobs back for Americans and for the labor market overall. It is not OK just to treat it with a wink and a nudge.
There’s a Pew study that says that about 5% of the US workforce are undocumented immigrants. And that they are clustered in certain types of work:
With those kinds of numbers, it stretches the imagination that employers in these industries aren’t aware of who they are hiring. Still, enforcement in these industries seems the place to start. Not so much because it is illegal, but to incentivize the business community to push their minions in Congress for a clean solution to the problem.
incentivize the business community to push their minions in Congress for a clean solution to the problem.
The business community tends to “reform” itself by making its illlegal practices legal. Any solution that does not include strong employer sanctions and eliminate the “knowingly” loophole is not clean and is not comprehensive.
Chicken industry
Unlike the xenophobic republicans, I worry more about the outsourcing of American jobs to child labor in China and to low wage labor in India where combined they have 7 times the US population
Motivations really aren’t important. The questions are about how we would do it and what it would cost. My contention is that it’s not worth it.
Most illegals have fake papers. There’s nothing “on the minds” of employers who hire such people.
Puck, your solution sounds like it’s mainly about punishing employers. What do you think will happen if these immigrants lose their jobs? Do you think the Chinese, for example, will just pack up and go back to China? Not likely.
This knee-jerk liberal response is just as lame as the knee-jerk conservative response. Neither one takes a serious look at the actual problems.
If the solutions were as easy as either side’s lazy thinkers claim, they would already have been put in place.
Geezer makes a fair point. The underground economy works because it…well, because it works.
It isn’t even a problem for those that claim it is a scourge because it gives them handy scape goats to rail against.
Undocumented workers as 26% of the farm, fishing and forestry employees isn’t an underground economy by any stretch.
I really haven’t heard any liberal agree with my employer-focused viewpoint. All liberals seem to care about is amnesty for current illegals, and I guess we’ll just do it again in another two or three decades or sooner.
Yes, I want to punish a few employers until the rest of them get the message.
Do you think the Chinese, for example, will just pack up and go back to China?
I really don’t care where they go as long as they don’t go back to work. Not being employable in the US would help them make the decision about where to reside.
@puck: Again, this is the simple-minded thinking that underlies the conservatives’ starve-the-beast philosophy. It’s no more appealing intellectually when employed in the service of liberals.
You make your point when you say you don’t care what the actual effects of your policy would be — you just want the satisfaction of punishing businesses.
No, I want the satisfaction of seeing “Help wanted – must be authorized to work in the US” signs sprouting all over America. Only a few dozen businesses need to be “punished,” unless you call running a legal business punishment.
@Cassandra: Are we supposed to be surprised that 25% of farm workers — most of whom are immigrants with farm-work visas — turn out not to have the proper paperwork? I’m sure not.
Fishing is, by a wide margin, the most dangerous job in the country. No surprise that legal Americans avoid it. Don’t know much about the forestry industry.
Just because these immigrants hold lots of jobs doesn’t mean they’re not “underground.” The entire $100-billion-per-year illegal drug industry is underground.
@puck: As I said, you seek simplicity. In real life you won’t find any.
Most of the illegals I have met work in very small businesses — restaurants and lawn services. Again, the cost of compliance here would outweigh the benefits of being rid of them.
Do we want $1.00 chicken sandwiches? Do we want cheap lettuce and grapes? If the answer is “yes” then we also want the cheapest possible labor rates.
Environmentalists have a saying “You can’t do just one thing.”
Most of the illegals I have met work in very small businesses — restaurants and lawn services.
Those jobs used to be done by citizens, and should be once again. As a teenager I worked as a busboy and cutting grass. Now local teens are competing with adults for those jobs, illegal or not.
The farm, fishing and forestry business is still legal last time I checked and so are subject to the rules and regulations that other employers are. Whether the jobs are tough or dangerous isn’t important here — except as a marker that these employers can’t pay an American enough to take on that risk. The meatpacking business used to be good, solid work for a blue color worker. Now, it is squeezing out the Americans still willing to work there in favor of undocumented workers who won’t bother them much about safety or unions.
And Pew’s 26% is for unauthorized workers — which would not include people on farm-visas by definition.
I would like to see jobs for lower middle class, unskilled and unemployed people.
@Cass: On the farm workers, my point was that it’s hard to tell who’s legal and who’s not. The “illegals” usually are people whose visas have expired but are trying to earn an extra month’s wages. The 74% looks just like the 26%. Again, how much are you willing to spend to track down each of these people?
On meat packers, one of the changes wrought by hiring illegals — besides cheaper labor — is dangerous work conditions; illegals are highly unlikely to blow the whistle.
Chicken processing, unlike the packing of larger animals, never paid well, and suffered a big blow in Delaware back in the 1980s when a plant fire killed several people. It was revealed that the workers couldn’t escape because management had chained shut the fire doors to cut down on workers taking unauthorized smoking breaks. Conditions are even worse now, because the line moves faster. When the blades gut one chicken per second, it’s pretty easy to lose a finger.
@Puck: You sound just like a conservative, longing for the good ol’ days.
Y’all act like you know exactly what would happen if we could deport all these people, or penalize all these businesses. You don’t, whether you acknowledge that fact or not.
@Cass and puck: Just to be clear, I’m not arguing with what you say, but with your assumption that we know what the effects of taking those curative actions would be.
When it comes to meatpacking, the problem is the lack of safety standards. It’s a shit job no matter who’s doing it, and frankly I don’t think anyone, from anywhere, should be working in the conditions that are normal in that industry.
Just to be clear, the only curative action I’m even making the case for is forcing the business community to get better invested in a workforce that they clearly rely on. Treating these folks as disposable lets them ignore safety standards that do exist. And, quite frankly, I don’t care what they spend on enforcement. Conservatives who keep calling “illegals to get out” should be faced with the economy that undermines. And the business interests who keep skirting with this potential disaster should be made to live with it head on.
We could use a market-based approach, similar to the software piracy efforts. Offer rewards for reporting undocumented workers. Maybe one reward could be legality.
“Report any business that employs 5 or more undocumented aliens and receive up to $1000 for each undocumented worker. Verified reports made by undocumented workers will result in the award of a 2 year work visa to the reporter.”
Jesus.
20% of all non-fatal workplace injuries occur among healthcare workers, which according to CDC is greater than any other industry for that category.
I wonder if that number is influenced by the fact that some of these other industries don’t actually have a reporting mechanisms for reporting injuries of undocumented immigrants. No papers, no workman’s comp.
Not reporting injuries (at least on your OSHA 300 forms) also keeps your insurance costs lower. The rules recently changed for the businesses that had to report to OSHA injuries and fatalities, so some of these industries may no longer be subject to the rules.
My bride’s job involves OSHA and comp claims for the nation’s largest organic poultry producer. Virtually all of the claims arise from workers breaking the rules and virtually all claimants test positive for drugs and/or alcohol.
@Obama is our Reagan. We will be looking back to Obama over the next 40 years.
I hope not. The Reagan legacy is a complete fraud.
@Obama is our Reagan
I hope not. For Republicans, it was all downhill after Reagan. I hope the next president or the one after surpasses Obama. Still left to be done is winning stable Dem majorities in Congress, and Medicare for all. Obama’s rhetoric warms the liberal heart but it has not moved the Democratic caucus visibly from its rightward perch.