New Year’s Day Open Thread [1.1.2016]

From the United States Election Project charts on “Voter Turnout Demographics.” If Latinos and “Others” voted at the same rate as Whites and Blacks, the Democratic Party would never lose an election.

“Experts are skeptical,” writes Alex Seitz-Wald, addressing the power of ‘Independent’ voters to determine the outcome of New Hampshire’s Democratic primary. Seitz-Wald provides a couple of quotes on point: “Past results show that registered Democrats are likely to make up a majority of the primary electorate. Sanders either has to convince more of these voters to support him or he has to turn out an unprecedented number of independents and brand new voters,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute…Andy Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said that every year some candidate attempts to capitalize on the ‘myth of the independent voter.’ “It’s just never been the case that independents have really swung an election for a candidate here,” he noted.”

At The Upshot, Nate Cohn presents an interesting map showing Donald Trump’s strongholds across the nation by congressional district. Cohn comments: “Donald Trump holds a dominant position in national polls in no small part because he is extremely strong among people on the periphery of the Republican coalition…He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It’s a coalition that’s concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm…Mr. Trump’s huge advantage among these groups poses a challenge for his campaign, because it may not have the turnout operation necessary to mobilize irregular voters.”

Christi Parsons at The Los Angeles Times analyzes President Obama’s role in 2016:

You might think the candidates have the most invested in the 2016 presidential election, but someone else has nearly as much riding on the outcome: President Obama.

Though he will not appear on the ballot, Obama believes his legacy hangs in the balance of the 2016 election. He has implemented policy on climate change, detente with Cuba and other issues through sweeping use of his executive power, all of which could be stripped away by any future Oval Office occupant. […]

Obama has made it clear to aides that once he’s done hiking and snorkeling with his family during the holidays here, he will gear up for a hard campaign of legacy preservation, according to administration officials familiar with his plans. He’ll raise money to fill Democratic coffers and target the key communities that would make up a winning coalition for the party, including blacks, Latinos, educated single women and young voters, to encourage them to go to the polls.

Eugene Robinson at The Washington Post:

The economy continues to grow — slowly, perhaps, but steadily. Crime is at or near historical lows. About 90 percent of Americans have health insurance, which is closer to universal coverage than we’ve ever been. Budget-busting medical costs have slowed their ranks’ rise. These and other positive trends should continue, as meanwhile the nation lives through an election campaign that will not be able to dodge issues of fundamental importance.

In 2016, we’re likely to see an exercise in democracy that is passionate, messy, at times ugly — but vitally important. Happy New Year, and note that the seat-belt light will be on through November.

The ghostwriter of Donald Trump’s 2000 book The America We Deserve said he’s not voting for the billionaire real estate mogul, BuzzFeed reports.

Said Dave Shiflett: “I’ll tell you what really bugs me about him, where it really ripped it with me and Trump was the stuff he said about McCain. McCain suffered severely, and I had a son who did two tours in Middle East during the last war and we had kids from here who went over there and some of them got hurt. They ain’t gonna be the same.”

The Ohio Secretary of State has rejected Martin O’Malley’s petition to be placed on the Democratic presidential primary ballot, according to Ballot Access News.

He needed 1,000 signatures and submitted 1,175. He has been told that only 772 signatures are valid.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds the percentage of Republicans among those likely to vote in the 2016 election lags Democrats by 9 percentage points, compared with a 6-point deficit in the year leading up to Barack Obama’s 2012 victory.

Key finding: “While the American electorate has become more diverse the last three years, the party’s support among Hispanic likely voters and younger likely voters has shrunk significantly.”

“It’s not a political strategy he’s pursuing, it’s a short-term public relations strategy. Every day, he figures out some way to dominate the news. But in the general election, not only is Bill Clinton still popular with a lot of swing voters, they don’t think it’s fair to run against the spouse. This is not a legitimate general election issue. It’s simply a tactic of Donald’s to dominate the news.”

— GOP lobbyist Charlie Black, quoted by Politico, on Donald Trump attacking Bill Clinton’s personal indiscretions.

Donald Trump said that President Obama’s concerns about the environment were infringing on his rights to use aerosol hairspray, the New York Times reports. Said Trump: “You can’t use hairspray because hairspray is going to affect the ozone.” However, aerosol sprays were actually phased out in the United States in the 1990s, years before Obama was president.

“Ted Cruz took a victory lap Thursday following a strong fundraising report, repeatedly telling supporters on a phone call that he expects the race to be over by March — but only after getting through an increasingly nasty run-up to the Iowa caucuses,” Politico reports.

Said Cruz: “We’re winning right now, and as a result, I want to tell everyone to get ready,” he said on the call. “Strap on the full armor of God. Get ready for the attacks that are coming. We’ve already seen hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars in attacks directed at us. Well I went to tell you that come the month of January, we ain’t seen nothing yet.”