Day: March 5, 2016

On the Democratic side, FiveThirtyEight gives Hillary Clinton the same 99 percent plus chance of winning Louisiana as it gave her in South Carolina, which isn't surprising because it has a similar African-American majority in its primary electorate and Clinton's carrying that demographic by a similar 5-1 margin in recent polls. In much-whiter Kansas and Nebraska, Sanders is favored, though not overwhelmingly; even though these are technically closed caucuses, they are like Iowa in that independents and Republicans can change their affiliation at the caucus site. Maine is assumed to be big-time Bernie Country. He could use some bragging rights about now, though any loss in the caucus states will be cited as a sign of waning strength. Anyone wanting to follow returns from all these events is going to have to be patient. Probably the first returns to come in on Saturday will be from Kansas Republicans, who end their caucuses at 2 p.m. CST. Kansas Democrats begin caucusing at 3:30 p.m. CST. Kentucky Republicans (expecting a low turnout in an unusual caucus arranged strictly for the convenience of former presidential candidate Senator Rand Paul) will end their voting at 4 p.m. local time (EST and CST). Nebraska Democrats and Maine Republicans will caucus at locally determined times ranging from mid-morning to early evening. In Louisiana polls will close at 8 CST. On Sunday Maine Democrats will spread their local caucuses around from 1 to 9 p.m. EST, and in Puerto Rico polls will close at 3 p.m. EST. Then we all have to wait two more days until four more Republican events and two more Democratic primaries are held.