Tuesday Open Thread [8.9.16]

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–Monmouth–Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 7, Stein 2
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–NBC News/SurveyMonkey–Clinton 51, Trump 41
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT–Susquehanna Polling & Research–Clinton 46, Trump 37, Johnson 7, Stein 3
GEORGIA–PRESIDENT–JMC Analytics–Clinton 44, Trump 37, Johnson 7, Stein 1
UTAH–PRESIDENT–UtahPolicy/Dan Jones–Trump 37, Clinton 25, Johnson 16, Stein 1

So, it is official, Georgia is now a lean Democratic state. And the pipedream that was Utah is gone for now, though with this Mormon Republican Evan McMullen running for President now as an Independent Conservative, Utah might go…. what color shall we assign Mr. Mullen? Purple? Orange?

John Cassidy: “Given the fundamentals—the state of the economy, the President’s approval ratings, and the fact that the Democrats are seeking to win a third term in the Oval Office—history suggests that this should be a close election. But Trump’s self-destructive antics, coming on top of what was a pretty effective demolition job on him at the Democratic Convention, have, for now at least, taken the pressure off Clinton.”

“While one hesitates to cite Newt Gingrich as an authority on anything other than zoos and his next book contract, there was a good deal of truth in what he said to the Washington Post a few days ago about Trump and Clinton: ‘The current race is which of these two is the more unacceptable, because right now neither of them is acceptable. Trump is helping her to win the election by proving he is more unacceptable than she is.’”

“Theoretically, at least, Trump still has time to reboot, embrace self-discipline, and prepare for the television debates, all the while hoping that another Clinton scandal or a ghastly news event helps him out. But he’ll have to confront a potential mutiny among his fellow-Republicans, a gaping disadvantage in field organization, and the widespread belief that he isn’t qualified to be President.”

Yeah, the third term fundamental is against the Dems, but not the Presidential Approval Rating or Economy fundamentals. They both favor the Dems. If the GOP had nominated Rubio or Bush, it would have been a closer election, yes, but I think it still favored the Dems, even with Hillary as the nominee. The convention fixed her favorables (she is now at 48/50), the result of Democrats coming home after they felt the Bern.

1. I'm an inspector of elections for a Philly voting division. Independent but was a Republican as recently as June. https://t.co/pd82mOkEKh

— Ryan Godfrey (@rgodfrey) August 7, 2016

Click on the tweet and read the whole tweetstorm thread that is in response to Sean Hannity and the allegations of fraud in Philly just because there were some precincts where no one voted for Romney.

Former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling “seems to have lofty goals following his careers in baseball and broadcasting. The three-time World Series-winning pitcher recently revealed some pretty serious political plans in perhaps the most casual manner possible — in the comment section of one of his own Facebook posts complaining about the Democratic Party,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

Said Schilling: “I am going to run, soon. State office first, white house in 8 years, or 4 if by some amazing illegal event this country elects another Clinton.”

Yeah, an event like more people voting for her than your fellow racist pig Trump. Go ahead, Schilling. Run in 2020. You’ll give Hillary two terms.

Lawrence Mishel provided a summary of Trump’s speech today on his economic policies.

Donald Trump fashions himself a populist, but his economic plan just recycles the failed policies of deregulation and massive tax cuts for the rich and corporations. If such policies were effective, we would remember George W. Bush’s presidency as one of great prosperity, instead of a period of stagnant wages for blue- and white-collar workers. We’ve lowered taxes and curtailed regulations for years and there’s no evidence that growth has improved as a result…

Trump’s economic policies will be welcomed by corporations and the wealthy GOP donors he’s now courting, and the businessmen on his so-called economic policy team. Perhaps these policies will finally earn Trump the love of the GOP establishment. But he remains a dangerous candidate who does not have the interest of workers in mind.

The only remaining “populism” in Trump’s schtick these days are his anti-trade isolationism and his disdain for political correctness (i.e., racism/sexism/nationalism).

Yesterday, 50 Republican national security experts, from Tom Ridge to Michael Chertoff (the last two Republican Homeland Security heads), said Trump is the most dangerous nominee in all American history.

Fifty of the nation’s most senior Republican national security officials, many of them former top aides or cabinet members for President George W. Bush, have signed a letter declaring that Donald J. Trump “lacks the character, values and experience” to be president and “would put at risk our country’s national security and well-being.”

Mr. Trump, the officials warn, “would be the most reckless president in American history.”

The letter says Mr. Trump would weaken the United States’ moral authority and questions his knowledge of and belief in the Constitution. It says he has “demonstrated repeatedly that he has little understanding” of the nation’s “vital national interests, its complex diplomatic challenges, its indispensable alliances and the democratic values” on which American policy should be based. And it laments that “Mr. Trump has shown no interest in educating himself.”

“None of us will vote for Donald Trump,” the letter states, though it notes later that many Americans “have doubts about Hillary Clinton, as do many of us.”

Michael Tomasky asks if Florida is even a swing state anymore: “You will also hear them say a kajillion times until Election Day that Florida is a swing state. Well, yes. It has been historically. But the combination of massive demographic changes since 2012 and Trump’s anorexic performance among college-educated whites makes me wonder if Florida is a swing state this year at all. And while the Republicans might nominate a normal candidate in 2020, the state’s demography is galloping away from the GOP.”

The New York Times:

Donald Trump said on Monday that he wanted to usher in “economic renewal,” but most of his proposals would hurt the economy, rack up huge deficits, accelerate climate change and leave the country isolated from the world. […]

In a speech billed as a blueprint for stimulating growth and creating jobs, Mr. Trump offered a grab bag of ideas that borrow from discredited supply-side economics, the fossil fuel industry’s wish list and “America First” isolationism. He also criticized Hillary Clinton and President Obama for what he called their “job-killing, tax-raising, poverty-inducing” agenda. It was vintage Trump, full of promises of greatness and victories backed by fantastical proposals.

Mr. Trump considers himself a businessman, uniquely capable of improving the economy. But this list of misguided and risky proposals would reduce economic growth while showering the rich with tax breaks.

Stuart Rothenberg: “Journalistic neutrality allegedly forces us to say that the race isn’t over until November, and most media organizations prefer to hype the presidential contest to generate viewers and readers rather than explain why a photo finish is unlikely.”

“But a dispassionate examination of the data, combined with a cold-blooded look at the candidates, the campaigns and presidential elections, produces only one possible conclusion: Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump in November, and the margin isn’t likely to be as close as Barack Obama’s victory over Mitt Romney.”

Eugene Robinson on the state of the campaign:

It may be hard to imagine, but I fear this election campaign is going to get worse — maybe a lot worse — before it gets better. By the time it’s done, the whole nation may feel like it needs a shower. […]

I expect Trump to double down not just on his attacks against Clinton but also on the two issues that won him his white working-class following: immigration and trade. That means more bigotry, more xenophobia and more totally unrealistic promises about the miracles that he and his team of rich-guy economic advisers will magically perform.

Former Republican EPA Administrators under Nixon, Reagan and Bush 41 endorse Hillary Clinton today, citing environmental policy.

— Dan Merica (@danmericaCNN) August 9, 2016