Open Thread – Wednesday, September 7, 2016

ALABAMA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 57, Clinton 36
ALASKA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 47, Clinton 39
ARIZONA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 46, Trump 45
ARIZONA–PRESIDENT–Arizona Republic–Clinton 35, Trump 34
ARKANSAS–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 54, Clinton 41
CALIFORNIA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 57, Trump 33
COLORADO–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 46, Trump 44
CONNECTICUT–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 51, Trump 39
DELAWARE–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 50, Trump 36
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 46, Trump 44
GEORGIA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 46, Trump 46
HAWAII–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 58, Trump 28
IDAHO–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 53, Clinton 34
ILLINOIS–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 53, Trump 38
INDIANA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 52, Clinton 37
IOWA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 46, Clinton 42
KANSAS–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 49, Clinton 37
KENTUCKY–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 57, Clinton 34
LOUISIANA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 53, Clinton 38
MAINE–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 47, Trump 39
MARYLAND–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 61, Trump 31
MASSACHUSETTS–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 56, Trump 33
MICHIGAN–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 46, Trump 44
MINNESOTA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 49, Trump 40
MISSISSIPPI–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 48, Clinton 46
MISSOURI–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 51, Clinton 41
MONTANA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 51, Clinton 38
NEBRASKA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 49, Clinton 38
NEVADA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 48, Trump 43
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 49, Trump 40
NEW JERSEY–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 53, Trump 38
NEW MEXICO–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 51, Trump 37
NEW YORK–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 57, Trump 35
NORTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 46, Trump 46
NORTH DAKOTA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 60, Clinton 32
OHIO–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 46, Clinton 43
OKLAHOMA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 57, Clinton 33
OREGON–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 55, Trump 36
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 47, Trump 43
RHODE ISLAND–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 50, Trump 40
SOUTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 49, Clinton 42
SOUTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT–First Tuesday–Trump 50, Clinton 38

SOUTH DAKOTA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 51, Clinton 37
TENNESSEE–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 55, Clinton 37
TEXAS–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 46, Trump 45
UTAH–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 46, Clinton 35
VERMONT–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 56, Trump 28
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 49, Trump 41
WASHINGTON–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 53, Trump 37
WEST VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 57, Clinton 33
WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Clinton 46, Trump 44
WYOMING–PRESIDENT–Washington Post–Trump 65, Clinton 27

The Dallas Morning News endorses Hillary Clinton for president:

We don’t come to this decision easily. This newspaper has not recommended a Democrat for the nation’s highest office since before World War II — if you’re counting, that’s more than 75 years and nearly 20 elections. The party’s over-reliance on government and regulation to remedy the country’s ills is at odds with our belief in private-sector ingenuity and innovation. Our values are more about individual liberty, free markets and a strong national defense.

We’ve been critical of Clinton’s handling of certain issues in the past. But unlike Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton has experience in actual governance, a record of service and a willingness to delve into real policy.

Resume vs. resume, judgment vs. judgment, this election is no contest.

Here is @timkaine, not mincing words. pic.twitter.com/4wfGQafY57

— Melissa McEwan (@Shakestweetz) September 7, 2016

Melissa McEwan has more on her love (which I share) for Tim Kaine here.

“In a bid to propel his candidacy onto the presidential debate stage later this month, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is deploying an unusual advertising strategy to help him meet requirements for participation,” Bloomberg reports. “The former New Mexico governor on Tuesday launched his first television ads of the 2016 campaign, almost exclusively targeting western states where libertarianism has stronger roots.”

To be included in the debates, Johnson needs to average 15% or higher in national polls. He is stuck at high single digits on average now.

Nate Silver answers 10 questions about the election:

9. What would keep me up late at night if I were Clinton?

My first question would be whether the race has settled into a 4-point Clinton lead, as the polls have it now, or is continuing to trend toward Trump. If I’m still ahead by 4 points or more at the time of the first debate on Sept. 26, I’ll feel reasonably good about my position: A Trump comeback would be toward the outer edges of how much trailing candidates have historically been able to move the polls with the debates. If the race gets much closer, though, my list of concerns gets a lot longer. It would include geopolitical events that could work in Trump’s favor, third-party candidates who seem to be taking more votes from me than from Trump, and the tendency for incumbent candidates (since Clinton is a quasi-incumbent) to lose ground in the polls after the first debate.

10. What would keep me up late at night if I were Trump?

As the polls have ebbed and flowed, I’ve been 8 or 10 points behind Clinton at my worst moments, but only tied with her at my best moments. I’ve also never gotten much above 40 percent in national polls, at least not on a consistent basis, and I’ve alienated a lot of voters who would allow me to climb higher than that. In other words, maybe that dreaded Trump ceiling is there after all, in which case I’ll have to get awfully lucky to win the election, probably needing both a favorable flow of news in the weeks leading up to Nov. 8 and a large third-party vote that works against Clinton.

Finally the New York Times gets off its fat Clinton hating Trump fellating ass and publishes this:

“In the 1980s, Mr. Trump was compelled to testify under oath before New York State officials after he directed tens of thousands of dollars to the president of the New York City Council through myriad subsidiary companies to evade contribution limits. In the 1990s, the Federal Election Commission fined Mr. Trump for exceeding the annual limit on campaign contributions by $47,050, the largest violation in a single year. And in 2000, the New York State lobbying commission imposed a $250,000 fine for Mr. Trump’s failing to disclose the full extent of his lobbying of state legislators.”

So if you want to talk an expert in pay to play politics, talk to Donald Trump. And by the way, the whole Trump Foundation-Pam Bondi thing in Florida is not pay to play. It is actual bribery. Pay to play is donating money for access. What Trump did was donate money for action. A specific action: the dropping of Florida’s fraud complaint against Trump University. And the same thing happened in Texas. If Hillary had done this, the media would be calling for her assassination.

Trump didn’t just donate, he hosted a fundraiser for Bondi at Mar-A-Lago after she passed on investigating Trump U https://t.co/H25aFUAx1r

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) September 7, 2016

A Moody’s Analytics forecasting model which heavily weighs state-by-state income growth suggests Hillary Clinton will win in a landslide over Donald Trump.

“The latest forecast puts 16 states, which includes Washington, D.C., firmly in Democratic territory, with 11 more leaning in that direction for a total of 332 electoral votes. Republicans hold comfortable leads in 21 states, with three more leaning red, giving its candidate 206 electoral voters.”

This should make Bernie Sanders and progressives very happy: Politico notes that Elizabeth Warren is taking a personal interest in the hires for a future Clinton administration. In addition to recognizing “Hell, no” appointments that will not be supported, Warren has endorsed Clinton hires for the presidential campaign, particularly in an economic advisory capacity:

The liberal wing’s early jockeying is already paying off. …Rohit Chopra, who was hired by Warren at the CFPB, is joining Clinton’s transition team. And Heather Boushey, popular among progressives because of her focus on income inequality, was recently chosen as the team’s chief economist. Liberals applauded both hires as a sign Clinton is taking them seriously.

Jon Favreau: “The reason Trump succeeded isn’t that complicated after all. He didn’t win the nomination by tapping into some nascent political movement. He won by doing a fairly good impression of a right-wing media celebrity. Every issue, every conspiracy, every applause line has been ripped from their websites, radio shows, and television programs. It’s why he became America’s most prominent birther. It’s why he floated rumors that Ted Cruz’s dad killed JFK, and that Hillary Clinton killed Vince Foster. It’s why he talks the way he does about Mexicans and Muslims and women and African Americans. It’s why he’s been able to get away with knowing little to nothing about policy or government or world affairs — because Trump, like any good talking head, only speaks in chyrons and clauses and some-people-are-sayings.”

“Trump’s greatest trick has been to realize that right-wing media stars have a built-in audience that Republican politicians don’t. To that audience, Jeb Bush talks like Washington talks. Ted Cruz talks like conservative ideologues talk. Marco Rubio talks like the last consultant he spoke with talks. But Trump talks like a true talk radio fan — longtime listener, first-time caller. He comes off like the winner of a reality TV show in which one lucky Fox viewer gets picked to run for president of the United States.”

Just out — U.S. uninsured rate fell below 9 percent for first time.

Only 8.6 percent of Americans uninsured per new CDC data. Historic low.

— Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) September 7, 2016

Natalie Jackson of the Huffington Post:

The polling averages are your best friend for the next 9 weeks. HuffPost Pollster combines publicly-available polls that meet our criteria (which are mostly based on disclosing methodological information) into a single estimate of the polling trends. We do this for every major election contest in which there are five or more polls that meet our criteria. That includes the presidential race in each state where polling is available, Senate races, gubernatorial races and even an overall look at House of Representatives vote shares. Our charts show you in one glance where the race stands, where it’s been over the time that it’s been polled and how much variation there is in the polling. In the main chart for the presidential race, you can easily see when Donald Trump has come up in the polls and the race currently tightening, but also that Hillary Clinton has never trailed in the averages.

The latest CNN poll had registered voters favoring Clinton by 3, but likely voters had Trump by 2. So what’s with the likely voter vs registered voter thing? Here are some primers from respected pollster Charles Franklin:

About Likely Voter Samples

Identifying likely voters matters because only those who show up affect the election. Opinions of nonvoters matter not at all for outcome 4/

But likelihood of voting is not a fixed attribute. It responds to circumstances, enthusiasm, closeness of state. 5/

In fact, shifts in who is LV can drive changes in polls at least as much as changes in candidate preference. 6/

For this reason, I prefer the much more stable RV population as the basis of assessing change during campaign. 7/

But as election approaches, LVs begin to be more certain of voting (or not) and it makes sense to use LV late in campaign. 8/

You saw MSNBC try to unskew the CNN poll yesterday. Let’s not. It’s one poll. It may be an outlier. So relax everybody.