Archive for November, 2016
My Final Prediction
A Latino blue wave sweeps Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas, though not quite enough yet to turn the Lone Star state blue. Texas will be a two to three point race, and a swing state from here on out. Hillary Clinton’s ground operation wins North Carolina and Ohio, but is not quite enough to turn Iowa blue, probably because the state has just been trending extremely red since 2012. It is also the whitest state in the nation. There will be no congressional district splits in Maine or Nebraska, after all the attention placed on both.
The final popular vote margin will be Hillary 51, Trump 43, Other 6.
Dems will come very close to winning the House because of the blue Latino wave. They will win unexpected seats in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, California, Texas and Florida because of it. I am just not sure they will win enough to take the majority. Either way, Paul Ryan will have an ungovernable majority of maybe 5 seats.
Dems will take the majority in the Senate after winning Illinois, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, Missouri, Nevada and Arizona. That’s a net pick up of 9 seats, for a 54-46 majority.
In Delaware, no surprises on the Statewides: Carney, Blunt Rochester, Hall Long, Navarro all win. Meyer wins in New Castle County.
Upset Watch – 9th RD Monique Johns
Regular readers know that the 9th is the blueish district that Peter Schwartzkopf handed to Republicans by clumsily trying to engineer his own Republican pick into the seat when incumbent Dem, Rebecca Walker, stepped aside. Given the choice between and authentic Republican in Kevin Hensley and Schwartzkopf’s ersatz Democrat (Jason Hortiz) the district picked Hensley […]
The November 7, 2016 Thread
In case you have not read the New York Times inside story on the final week of the Trump campaign, it is a must read. We learn that Corey Lewandowski, CNN’s pro-Trump “analyst”, “still talk[s] to the candidate frequently,” that Ivanka Trump “discouraged” the campaign from promoting her own ad for her father, fearing it would damage her own businesses (I hope she is bankrupt next year); that Trump’s inner circle finally wrestled his phone and Twitter away from him; that Steve Bannon’s pants literally caught fire while helping to write one of Trump’s speeches (bringing new meaning to liar liar pants on fire); that Trump doesn’t use a computer and, apparently, can’t wrap his mind around the idea that other people do, so he “rails against the campaign’s expenditure of tens of millions on digital ads, skeptical that spots he never sees could have any effect;” that Trump’s Gettysburg speech was supposed to be something more dignified and highbrow, but Trump “insisted” that he instead use the event to lash out at women accusing him of sexual assault; and that Trump does not do well with alone-time.
Aboard his gold-plated jumbo jet, the Republican nominee does not like to rest or be alone with his thoughts, insisting that aides stay up and keep talking to him. He prefers the soothing, whispery voice of his son-in-law. He requires constant assurance that his candidacy is on track. […] And he is struggling to suppress his bottomless need for attention.
The article opens with the revelation that Donald Trump is not sleeping, and the end of the article says that Trump believes that he will win. The latter is probably because of the former.
We also learn that Trump has fired his pollster and so all these late campaign moves, visits to Minnesota and Michigan are not because his campaign has numbers showing close races (as they have been lying about), but because his aides decided to literally play around with the 270towin electoral college simulation game to find different paths to 270. I’m serious. So all these Democrats here and elsewhere who have been so fearful of the Trump surge should perhaps change their sheets and buck up. He is who we thought he was.
The November 6, 2016 Thread
“Donald Trump was rushed offstage by security guards not long after he began speaking on Saturday night at a rally in Reno, Nev., in a startling scene that was not immediately explained,” the New York Times reports.
“Two members of Mr. Trump’s security detail raced toward Mr. Trump, with one of them grabbing him and forcibly escorting him away from the lectern. Moments before, Mr. Trump had seemed to notice a commotion in the crowd in front of him. As he was led away, video from the event appeared to show people near the stage subduing someone in the audience.”
That someone is a Republican who is against Trump, who was trying to lift a sign. Scaredy cat coward Trump supporters yelled “GUN!” and then they all started to beat the man on the ground. The Trump campaign then tried to claim that it was an assassination attempt by a Hillary supporter. The Secret Service and ABC News reports that there was no gun or attempted assassination.
The November 5, 2016 Thread
So, the Associated Press has verified that Melania Trump entered the country in 1996 on a visa that did not permit her to work, but she immediately went to work on modeling jobs from actual U.S. citizens and foreigners who had actual work visas. This is precisely what her husband has been railing against.
I could give a shit about Melania’s immigration status. But it proves that she and her husband and every single person who supports them are not only hypocrites, but flaming evil racists. Illegal immigration of white people from white Eastern Europe is ok, because they are white. Illegal immigration of brown people from the Middle East or Latin America is not ok because they are brown.
White Privilege And It’s Built-In “Lone Wolf” Excuse
I’m exhausted. This election season, along with other events, has beaten me down. It’s endless, and next Tuesday will not put an end to it. And now we have another lone wolf.
Here’s how the NYT described the “ambush shooter” who killed two police officers:
Investigators quickly identified a suspect in the slayings, who then surrendered — a local man described as a troubled loner who was familiar to the police in his suburban town, Urbandale. He had a string of arrests and confrontations with officers and others, but nothing in his record approached the scale of violence that erupted here.
Sgt. Paul Parizek, a spokesman for the Des Moines Police Department, “We may never actually know what motivated this act.”
A troubled loner. Oh well then, let’s move along. He couldn’t possibly be part of a culture. Why? Because white men are viewed as individuals. I’m so tired of this. There is a problem here, and why we keep ignoring – and excusing – it escapes me.
And the idea that “we may never actually know what motivated this act” strikes me as ridiculous.
The November 4, 2016 Thread
At POLITICO, Steven Shepard brings us the campaign expert consensus that Hillary Clinton has the superior ground game:
The presidential race may be tightening, but Democrats are convinced they have an Election Day ace-in-the-hole: Hillary Clinton’s ground game. They’re confident it will withstand Donald Trump’s late surge in key battleground states. […]
Democratic insiders are most confident in Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. They express more uncertainty in Florida and Iowa. […] Insiders in both parties agree that Hillary Clinton has the advantage in Colorado, where every ballot with be cast by mail for the first time in a presidential election.
“For the first time ever, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in ballot returns,” said a Colorado Democrat — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “In the past, only on Election Day itself did more Democrats vote than Republicans. This year, there has been only one day when the Republicans outpaced the Democrats. Something special is happening here.”
Recent Comments