Year: 2016

Taegen Goddard says Trump is the Republican Party: "Though the other campaigns still won’t admit it, Trump represents today’s Republican party. He’s leading all national polls. He’s leading in nearly every state that votes in March. He’s the overwhelming frontrunner. Trump’s chief rival at this point is Ted Cruz, who is very close to consolidating the evangelical and social conservative vote. Cruz will attack him relentlessly in South Carolina for not being a conservative. But the so-called “establishment” candidates — John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush — will be engaged in their own bloody battle. Even if just one of them can emerge as a non-Trump alternative — something that may not be possible at this point — it’s not clear their share of the vote would even be big enough to take on Trump.

.....that since October, 8 committee members of the 14th Democratic RD Committee have resigned? Did you know that four of them have done so since the death penalty repeal vote and the early endorsement of Pete Schwartzkopf, the RD's Representative in the General Assembly, who also happens to be the Speaker, who also happens to be against the repeal of the death penalty? I just thought that was interesting. Something strange is going on down south.

....come here, 'cause I'm gonna slap you upside your head. Seriously, if you know anyone who is not registered to vote in the upcoming presidential and state primaries, here are some dates and forms for you. First, if you want to vote in Delaware's Presidential Democratic or Republican Primary on April 26th and you are currently registered as "Unaffiliated" or for some other minor party, you must re-register as a member of a political party by February 26.

John Sununu is simply Su-nuts-nuts. I don't know what to say about these Democratic Biden backers who still seem to think Joe can be cajoled and flattered into "saving" the…

Obviously, Sanders absolutely crushed Clinton last night, getting a 20 point victory and necessary momentum. No way to spin this for Clinton, it was a loss, and a challenge. At the same, Sanderistas shouldn't get too excited, just as Clintonistas shouldn't get too depressed. What is next is a long primary, one that I expect Clinton to win. Bernie Sanders absolutely had to have this win, and he had to win it by the margins he did to have any chance going forward (because if he had won only in the single digits, that would have been spun as a Clinton victory). So Sanders gets his day in the sun and he should enjoy it. For a couple hours. Because then it is onto South Carolina and Nevada and then all the states in Super Tuesday. So he has a lot of work to do. And you can take it or leave it from me, but he is still behind the eight ball. If you include the superdelegates, who can of course change their commitments at any time, Clinton is now ahead with a 394-42 delegate lead. But unlike in 2008, when superdelegates did change their mind and go with Obama, do you think that would happen in 2016? Nope, not in a million years. Not unless Hillary dies or drops out. Sanders is not Obama. He does not have a shot in the general election like Obama did. He is not even a Democrat, and does not support Democratic candidates. That's important to superdelegates. So there is no way they will abandon Hillary to go with Sanders. To beat them, he will have to sweep the primaries coming up. And that may prove to be a tough task. The last poll out of South Carolina had Clinton up 64-27, and in Nevada, Clinton was up 50-27. So Bernie has a long way to go. But still, good win.

In 2007 Joe Biden, an esteemed senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, voted in favor of Bush's vanity war in Iraq. It was a craven vote for a transparently corrupt war intended, ironically, to safeguard his future electoral viability. To their credit, Democratic primary voters remembered that vote and denied Joe Biden the presidency. Votes have consequences. Americans do not favor giving pusillanimous politicians the keys to the White House. Does anyone doubt that Biden would have sailed to the nomination and the Presidency is he had only asked, "What's the REAL reason for this war?" and then voted as his heart and head both advised him? Instead, he (and Jeb Bush) are the only American politicians to ever pay a price for that war, and that price was astonishingly small compared to the price Iraqis continue to pay. Between 2001 and last spring, Bill and Hillary Clinton were paid $153 million for speeches delivered to a range of oligarchs and big banks, including Goldman Sachs, the very company that profited so wildly from pushing the country to the brink of economic ruin. Like the Iraq war vote, these speaking fees are an affront to decency and common sense that Democratic primary voters appear unwilling to forgive. No US bankers have been jailed for their crimes against this country. For their outright attack on our economy that wiped out retirement accounts and life saving, they only got bonuses. Hillary Clinton may now be the only person in the upper reaches of power to pay a price for the reckless criminality of the US financial industry. Is that fair? I don't know. But there is a heart beating within the US electorate and that heart years for the scales of justice to somehow be set right.

Ed Kilgore says New Hampshire has a long history of Primary Night Surprises.

The Granite State has a long tradition of thumbing its nose at the preferences of Iowa, its first-in-the-nation twin. The last time the New Hampshire Democrats voted for the same candidate in a competitive primary was in 2000 with Al Gore; you have to go back to 1992 to find a similarly harmonious early-state outcome for Republicans. But high-impact results in New Hampshire go all the way back to 1952, when voters there were first allowed to directly vote for candidates rather than just delegates. President Harry Truman's ambitions for a second full term expired when he lost to crowd-pleasing Tennessee senator Estes Kefauver. (Truman's successor Dwight D. Eisenhower, meanwhile, began his climb to the White House by beating "Mr. Republican" Robert Taft.) In 1964 Republicans surprised probably even themselves by giving a write-in candidacy on behalf of ambassador to South Vietnam (and former Massachusetts senator) Henry Cabot Lodge a victory over Nelson Rockefeller and Barry Goldwater. In 1968, Democrats showed that meeting expectations could matter as much as order of finish, as President Lyndon Johnson was all but pushed out of a reelection race by a shockingly narrow victory over Gene McCarthy. The same thing happened to 1972 Democratic front-runner Ed Muskie, who underperformed in a win over eventual nominee George McGovern (one of two consecutive long-shot Democrats to be lifted into contention by New Hampshire, the other being Jimmy Carter in 1976). The reverse phenomenon occurred in 1992, when Bill Clinton became the "comeback kid" with a better-than-expected second-place finish immediately following the Gennifer Flowers scandal.

That said, Hillary will not win in New Hampshire tonight. If she does, the primary is over. What is important is the margin. If the margin is 15-30 points as the polls suggest, Bernie gets the win and momentum. If the margin is in single digits, Hillary gets the "win" and momentum.